StormchaserChuck!

Yeah, the +IO is interesting. I dont really believe in the MJO. 

It would be fun. 

79-80, 96-97, and 01-02 all had similar characteristics to 97-98 fwiw. (maybe StrongEl Nino in another dimension?)

(It also seems to default to +EPO with -NAO pre-potential)

74-75 I think was a La Nina with +PNA. La Nina's are pretty rigid because they strengthen the mid-latitude jet, less land-ocean variance. I'm just saying, in the subsurface this one is not a La Nina. 

Beautiful day again. That's what we need more 140mbphs hurricneas to hit no new orleans

4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

You can’t just decide to define a Nina differently. The point you’re making about the oddity and abnormal (non nina) behavior is very valid but by the way we define a Nina it was a Nina. This is irrelevant since we have almost none of the oddities that causes 1995/6 to behave antithetical too a canonical Nina. 

Go out and measure Pacific equilatoral SSTs in December..

Wind and rain feel really good, best weather day in like 2-3 years. 

We won't have Moderate La Nina without -PNA. 

5 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

And folks tell me there's no magic formula for prediction...lol Perhaps not for the other ENSO states, but for Nina? I mean 95-96 is the only outlier! I mean I guess there's enough chaos for something randomore to happen, but...ninas seem to be the most predictable around here...

A lot of people don't know this, but 95-96 was not a La Nina as per ENSO subsurface, 0.0.  Plus 90-91,91-92,92-93-93-94-94-95,97-98 were all +ENSO 7/8 years. 95-96 was +PNA. 

The last few years of Sept 14th,

Maybe the CDC data is askew, the surface doesn't correlate as much.. 

I'm calling for ENSO Neutral, as per effects. Might have a -PNA, but whatever..

raindancewx might think this is interesting, after 2 years of +IO up to Japan in August (2020-2021). NAO signal is pretty interesting, Siberia doesn't often dominate. 

After 2 years +IO, +SSTs up to Japan in August

Cool..I wonder if the +PDO will take hold

I've seen it a million times, predicitions for a +AO August, based on June, July run forwards puts it on models peak Aug 22-Sept 7, while veering weeks before. 

all +PNA for the next 15 days.

Solar Max peaked Sept 2001, Solar Min peaked Feb/Mar 2020.. not sure how relevant it is. 

big time -NAO still.. should be interesting

^ Solar max ascending underperforming, same point in cycle

Just to give it away though, it should be like this

I think it will be +EPO. 

You know what, the La Nina is gone now

I knew we were going into -PNA when the PDO shifted (30-40 year cycles) in 1998. 

-NAO/-PNA.. but Boston had like 3" of snow in 2018, so I would go snowless all the way up the east coast. 

Look at this.. Pacific ridge or 588dm 594dm is way north all the way through August. Next 15+ days. 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

It ended up being pretty decent.. in the Summer the Aleutian Low is a little further north.