StormchaserChuck!

tried to upload paint, but couldn't, attachments and stuff, I was going to point out the +PNA

Not what we want to see for a -NAO Winter

A lot of La Nina conditions setting up, but subsurface is actually getting warmer in the +correlation zone. I wonder if we'll see a trend toward +PNA 

I was disappointed that we did not get an El Nino, because the QBO was perfect, 14/14 chance that it would be positive for the Winter back in the Spring, and with an El Nino, that is the best combination for cold and snow. 

Actually, it's a lot like 2015, 2016, and 2017 when we saturated into Fall

That's kind of cool, I think we will warm up to around +0.0 in the Spring. 

Indian Ocean probably has a perfect schematic too lol. 

50 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

 

Pretty pathetic..

Real nice -PNA for next 15 days. 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html

La Nina-like,

That NPH is really interesting. +NPH and -3 cold water in South American SOI region.. almost seems like a fake lol. 

Top Pacific seasons

I remember going through 2005-6, high CHP also goes or defaults to +EPO. same with last winter kind of 

Yeah, look at 2005-6

And last year

We all know 1995-6 had a lot of ACE

1933 had a lot of ACE

Definitely a -NAO signal. 

Nice -PNA evolution for the next 15 days. Look at this going into the Fall

Preceded, or coincided with the +IO, MJO 7-8 SST warming. 

11 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Yep. Especially in the Fall. If you rank Nino 3.4 by month for "coldness", the event last year was most impressive in the Fall. October and November 2020 were both top ten cold ENSO events since 1950. The later/earlier periods were no where near that.

These are your coldest ever Novembers in Nino 3.4, using a constant baseline (CPC uses a sliding baseline) of 26.49C. Top ten sounds real strong out of 71 years right? Problem is only like 23 or 24 of the years are La Ninas. So the peak is really only slightly above the middle of the pack for a La Nina, and then it was weaker in winter Spring.

1955    -2.24
1973    -2.16
1988    -1.84
1975    -1.44
2010    -1.43
1999    -1.37
2007    -1.32
1998    -1.25
1964    -1.23
2020    -1.21

It didn't feel like a La Nina last Winter. 

Cold water off of South America 

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/soi_110w_drupal.gif 

I mean, we will have +NAO because that has been default since 2013, but there will be blocking, probably assicioated with peaks in -PNA or +EPO. 

I could see January as the month with NAOblocking. 

I remember the ECMWF verified pretty good, agrees with the -NAO signal that we seem to have 65/35, 60/40 or something. 

Poor Larry.

Western drought since 2000. 

60W/20N is a pretty big benchmark, when it passes NE of it, they don't hit like 98% of the time. 

eh, disappointing Winter coming, 

E

ENSO is complete Neutral