StormchaserChuck!

Yeah, I've been thinking cold Jan

Last Feb was COLD. 1 year later cold/warm

1 year after a cold February/warm February

N. America ridge Sept 28-Oct 5

N. America ridge Sept 28-Oct 5

Predicted -0.1 when we had had 33 straight Winter months of +NAO. It's like 10-1-4 since conception. 

How do you do in +EPO/-NAO, that should be a good gauge. 

This is what I'm thinking for the Winter

14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is your NAO formula looking like? Must be getting to that point soon...

Dec-Mar

About -0.45 - -0.50 , average SD is 0.55, so +0.10 to -1.05 for DJFM

^Atlantic Ocean looks like before most active time, stable Oct-Nov

Check out the last 2 March's

2013-2019

2012

3 hours ago, frd said:

Hmm

 

Yeah, the warm SE has been the biggest surprise. 

Monsoon, the dove and rainbow

I'm going with 1933. 

Yeah, it's in the wrong formul. a

October NAO is opposite of the Winter 60% of the time. Only of the 12 months with a negative correlation. 

Northern Europe really warms up. 2 years ago, we hit 80* on the border of AK/Arctic Circle in late September, to cap off the Summer, so I wouldn't be surprised if there isn't some of that energy lingering. Maybe even into October. 

2nd year La Nina's are usually not good. 

Nah, EC trough will pull it out to sea. 

On 9/13/2021 at 4:22 PM, StormchaserChuck! said:

I was going to point out the +PNA

^They must have changed the CDC reanaylsis plots. I had thought Nov-Dec 2018,2019 had the coldest 10mb ever since 1948. and that 2020 carried the trend, the last 3 years Nov-Dec, 10mb was record coldest on record. 

warm March -PNA, watch for a +PNA around Feb 21,2022

I would go warm December, cold January, warm February. 

I think we will be -PDO dominate for the next 2-4 years. That underperforming solar ascension/La Nina tendency is pretty interesting(2:1).

We actually have >+0.0 waters in the central subsurface ENSO zone, which is the most favored area 0.90_0.75, this could lead us to some mean EC troughing in the future.