StormchaserChuck!

Here are some good recent analogs to NHC forecasted track.. 

Jerry 2019, Maria 2011, Ophelia 2011, Fiona 2010, Bill 2009

5/5 were misses/outtosea by alot. 

96, yeah there must be a dimension in hell or something (18 cuouts/disconnects)

Yeah, it doesn't rain in Florida much more anymore either. 

What is SHM?

(Well, they won't let me contact Deparmtnet of (8 skips, computer went black) of Justice. I have real work to do, and US mlitary servants stop me pretty much all the time now. oh well. They count and stuff, thick layers of energy, connected to everything. Started when I met a man, so it's prett bad actualy. 

Would love to see KA's outlook

harmonics

A lot of subsurface cooling. 

Decmber is wierd0.0 correlation with PNA, but Jan and should be negative. 

On 9/22/2021 at 10:30 PM, raindancewx said:

This is from my winter outlook draft. Key word is draft. This is not necessarily representative of what I'll settle on by 10/10 when I finish up.

If you're wondering if it is possible to get two severely cold, Plains centered, February cold outbreaks in a row, the answer is yes, and it's not actually that uncommon. The second year outbreak tends to be weaker though. I used 1936, 1978, 1994, 2018 as the match for last's year outbreak. Tentative idea is a more extreme version of Feb 1937, 1979, 1995, 2019 - i.e. similar spatial placement but much warmer in the south since you have strong long-term correlations to SE warmth in winter after -PDO Summers.

We could get a cold January, but even that idea is fading. 

Big -PNA, huge ridge through October 10, starting Sept. 28

Big -PNA, huge ridge through October 10. Rolloed forward into November

+IO cooling may actually support near-average temperature Winter in the Mid-Atlantic (September minus-Nov)

90 in 3yrs? Then of course we'll have to do 96 in the 2040s or something.. 

On pace for 32 named storms. I even wonder if next year will be El Nino. 

We are on pace for 32 named storms, I dont ever see this ending in my lifetime. Kind of a big bump to averages. 

We are on pace for 32 named storms, I dont ever see this ending in my lifetime, through the 2040s.

2005

cold November

warm December

cold January

warm Feburary

warm March

probably, warm October. 

More Winter analogs, PDO negative/falling in October, last 3 times in Neutral ENSO

More Winter analogs, PDO negative/falling in October, last 3 times in Neutral ENSO

Whoa, Sept 23, and we are on "S", good chance of a late season hit? 

60/20 is the point, >90% of storms that pass NW don't hit land. 

Nasty little -PDO shaping up.

Looks good for US hits, Day 15

I'd love to see what happens here in the Spring, the effects are shrinking I thinkwrt this La Nina. 

I don't know, are we really going to have a SSW in December? We have a higher than average chance for -NAO for the Winter, but 2017 and 2018 were record cold in the Stratosphere in December. El Nino/+QBO is perfect, but we are cooling back in the subsurface

^That's a really good post, I was saying that some of that energy could carry over into early October this year. 

I already know it will be like this for January though.. but we may have a break