StormchaserChuck!

A year ago 3 weeks ago
https://ibb.co/ZHMtL1C

High global ace

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

Nino 3.4 (both hemisphere's) and NAO correlation, whole year 20-year period of +ACE, -ACE and Neutral dataset

high ACE https://ibb.co/8sXkRmG

low ACE https://ibb.co/j4WnbzY

Neutral https://ibb.co/xjNrBR4

Pretty much the end of this La Nina, this is going to propagate east, and that's going to be the end, warming into the Spring. Surface may still cool, but the subsurface won't cool west of this anymore. Also, no consistency. March-May is Neutral. (these guys have frozen my page 8 diffeernt times, before I can press send and stuff  I hate that)

5 hours ago, It's Always Sunny said:

 

Yeah like Ray said that was driven mainly be by persistent -EPO. Didn’t need a -NAO that winter lol. Also before I moved here Dallas got an ice storm & snow out of it too.
 

 

So if the Super '15 El Nino started in the West, US (drought), I wonder if we are going to have west to east effects this round (round 2)

I have to wonder about the curse of Boston 3" a couple Winter's ago, and that fields have flattened a little since then. I think there is a little I-95 perception/magnet. 

I think we are due for a Tropical Storm hit sometime in the future. 30 storms last year, and 30+ probably this year, and we are like 1:3 behind in the decadal averages. 

check out this -NAO coming for D4 https://ibb.co/476WdDh 

You should be able to find it. You can always e-mail NWS. 

The two red's are probably fish storms

Irma and Georges

https://ibb.co/yFXtWv0

https://ibb.co/W08P9sZ

We need realy a trough over NE US or New Foundland/NorthAtlantic area.. we have opposite

https://ibb.co/V34wMDF

Nice -NAO

https://ibb.co/RhbHT17

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We are talking about a very negative PDO, 2014-2015 was very positive...that year was el nino, this is la nina, so you lost me on that. Believe me, I would be perfectly fine if things played out like that, though...

Although it was El Nino the PDO was a greater SD before the 2015 El Nino.. 

https://ibb.co/VQtRhc6

and then when the super El Nino started, it actually started to wane/shift -PDO a little

https://ibb.co/ZXBZ3sr

I'm out of upload space. This is the Winter's of the 1940s, before satilite. 8 Winter's.

^Jan-Mar 1948,49,50,51 

I guess the data goes downhill from 2013on. 

I also noticed when satellite data started in 1948, before then there was more +PDO,by like a 1.0 difference. There was another PDO dataset which is no longer listed. 

1955-56 had a nice -PDO

(opp) 90-91 and 93-94 had nice -opposite PDO

[url=https://imgbb.com/][img]https://i.ibb.co/GFgDmFs/8.png[/img][/url]

Yeah, it was also suppose to break below 1.40 first (technical signals), wonder what it means. 

The last few Christmas' have been -NAO.

2018 kind of blew that away. 

19 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Nina looks pretty strong to me,looks similar back into late Oct when it peaked,i'd be surprised if this doesn't end up at a moderate Nina upcoming as cold as the subsurface is.The recent CCKW is helping this out with another being shown towards the end of the month,but it looks weaker than it did a few days ago

I wouldn't be surprised if it warms up early Next Spring, we also started getting this Nino1.2 vs Nino 4 thing going in 2000. 

PDO analogs

We're going to get a real strong -PDO this Winter. 

Analogs

2020-21 -PDO

2019-20 -PDO

2014-15 +PDO*preceded 4months rise of 2015 El Nino. 

2012-13 -PDO

2011-12 Strong -PDO, almost -3 in Nov 2011

2010-11 -PDO

Hot spot though

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File:2017_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png 

Remember this Cat 5 in 2019

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Atlantic_hurricane_season#/media/File:Lorenzo_2019_track.png 

I think this Aleutian ridge is just feeding off of SSTs (384hr)

Should be interesting to see what happens.. I think there is not much correlation

Slowly creeping up has been this -NAO at the turn of the month here

Analogs