StormchaserChuck!

93-94 was pretty awesome too. A lot of people don't know thatit was a subsurface El Nino~. I always wanted a bigger ice storm. 

Just another thing, I really like a-NAO for the Winter

November is the only month 2014-2020 with normal rainfall, All others were >75/25

On 9/29/2021 at 2:25 PM, weathafella said:

And bos had 96.  Your old Wilmington location averaged close to 50% more and you ended up with 20% less.  So our individual perceptions are borne out by that statistic.

Yeah, we had dry, powdery snow in '96. It was pretty awesome. 

I think we are kind of controlling the Pacific with potential landfalls to an extent. 

La Nina is really getting going

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/TAO_5Day_EQ_xz.gi(f)

It will keep strengthening on the surface probabably. 

There has never been a -PNA October during La Nina! The greatest was +120dm in 2007 and 2008, we had the strongest two, but I think both had a stronger EPO. Since satilte data in 1948- 1955, 1975, 1985, 6 years were strong +PNA/La Nina. Last year, 2020 was +PNA/La Nina. 

Models through mid-October have about a +200dm -PNA, and we have never really done that before for the month of October in La nina since 1948. It will be interesting to see if we beat the 2007/8 record of +120dm for themonth. (last year was +PNA October-LaNina)

It looks like Nino3.4 will probably hit Moderate La Nina. -PNA, almost all of the time Dec1 - Mar31. 122 days, I say we have a mean+anomaly 500mb ridge north of Hawaii every day.

(site can't be reached 4x). We might HAVE A SOLID WINTER-PNA now.

-PNA Winter. Probably >+70dm Dec-Mar

Yeah, Moderate La Nina Winter (Nino 3.4)

It wil be interesting to see where we go the next 2 years, evening out. I think we are behind on Arctic sea ice. 

Do you know that we haven't had a -PNA/>0.0EPO October since 2008 (weird since almost all Winter's have been)

Models are strong on this, analogs 2001,2007,2008

We have had above average rainfall across the US 75/25> for 7 October's in a row- negative AOhappening. Will be interesting to see what happens with this. 

Analogs to next 15days models of -PNA

Actually, that's after October 3. We could do like 9-10 more storms. 

Before an +EPO Winter (this Winter's going to be +EPO)

-2019 had 7 storms here on out.- 

2018(-EPO) had 3 storms

2017(-EPO) had 4 storms

2001 (before biggest +EPOWinter) had 7 storms here on out. 

I go for a firehose/roaring Pacific Jet. 

I bet the wet streak continues, the whole US was +75/25 greater every of the last 7 year's. 

10 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have heard some speculation that we may have an el nino like STJ.

It might precede +subsurface ENSO momentum ~March/April

1 hour ago, floridapirate said:

Outside of boards like this, is anyone aware of Sam?

When I was in a mental hospital when Cat 5 Micheal was making landfall, it was like a global blackout.. quietest I've ever experienced. 

Only real match to precip pattern/West-STJ loops around Rockies

Is last year

2012

Last 7 years, the trend

Really wet actually 7 October's in a row.

Really wet actually 7 October's in a row

lol, 18,18.17,19

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

 

What exactly are you trying to say.

We might get some localized El Nino conditions maybe. 

Programs ending, or nonending 25 years ago, I've never experienced anything like this before. 

We are going to have maybe the 1 or 2 highest global ACE ever.