StormchaserChuck!

It's not even really a Nina. 

-PNA, bet on it.

I thinkwe are still due to see a pop in activity. 

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

While record ridges have been dominating, models have a rare -4SD near record trough for the SW next week.

 

400dm -PNA, I went back to 1948, and only Strong Nino's/Nina's had it (4SD). It's dissolving...

-PNA is record setting. +400dm coming up. This Sept/Oct is going to be most -PDO, meaning Aleutian ridge/GOA trough since satellites in 1948.

The Winter composite is Global warming skew... this is 8plus years and 8minus years. Warm in the mid-latitudes~ This agrees with trend of this last few years. Slight chance for a -NAO this Winter, but when it happens it may be accompanied by a stronger +EPO/-PNA

That is a good point about longest streak of 10 years without deep La Nina..

-PNA is record setting, +400dm coming up. This Sept/Oct is going to be most -PDO, meaning Aleutian ridge/GOA trough since satellites in 1948. The analogs are Strong El Nino's and Strong La Nina's, 04-05 broke the trend, moving to -PNA, it's 65% Strong events(+/-). But this is as "deep Nina" as we are going to get (models through October). -400dm -PNA, and close to -200dm for a Sept/Oct composite. 

-PNA is record setting. +400dm coming up. This Sept/Oct is going to be most -PDO, meaning Aleutian ridge/GOA trough since satellites in 1948.

November analog carry the trend, as does through February, -PNA...

-PNA is record setting. +400dm coming up. This Sept/Oct is going to be most -PDO, meaning Aleutian ridge/GOA trough since satellites in 1948.

The Winter composite is Global warming skew... this is 8plus years and 8minus years. Warm in the mid-latitudes~ 

6 analogs OctoberPNAMatchQBO/ENSO

https://ibb.co/wM6hTcg
NOv

https://ibb.co/QNh1QpZ

NAO is a little displaced in -QBO/Nina

https://ibb.co/YRVVXVH

vs +QBO/Nino https://ibb.co/Fk10XH0

-NAO over northern Europe in Nina, +NAO south of Iceland in Nino. 

10mb-Nino/Nina

https://ibb.co/cvRf6R7

https://ibb.co/DMNcd0S

20 hours ago, frd said:

Some of the warmest Octobers on record have produced this in the following Novembers.   

Big +PNA 2020, Big -PNA 2019 same time. 

https://ibb.co/5rL8Z76

https://ibb.co/rMdPNq7

Did somebody say Seattle? https://ibb.co/gwx7BKL 

The real pattern is probably +NAO/+PNA, behind all the clutter

If you really think about it, energy given off by cyclones is absorbed to .01 pretty quickly lol, It's more of "satilite catching". 

Pretty cool, it's in the low SLP part of the -NAO. 

44 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

October is really the best month of the year. 

It's the most stable probably. Never has ENSO changed direction in October. 

I would love to see if the Solarascencion> breaks a little next year. ACE with this Sam is going to be high, and 2017 was top-- negNAO in Dec/Jan cold Europe Feb/Mar. despite warm conditions. 

Yeah, I was saying about 9 more. 

^spells a big MidAtlantic hit. 

3 rounds of -PNA coming, 10-3, 10-8, 10-12

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

October edition of the CanSIPS.

Wow, yeah. I expect February to especially be -PNA, with a 99% chance. We may get +PNA around 2-21 though.

Just more stuff.. the -PDO intensification-PNA/+EPO through the first 15 days of October, Oct1-15, will be as extreme as it gets. 

Monthly analogs

https://ibb.co/PYc0GLZ

https://ibb.co/kSJL5BT

https://ibb.co/2Mrf9NC

https://ibb.co/LtTx9vD

10 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Not bad, Sam.

Reminds me of when all the storms were in the NEAtlantic, near Europe a few years ago. 

I wouldn't be surprised if we break into the 80s here in early October. 

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It requires a microscope to read that composite.

https://ibb.co/6nhxKdt

It's like all -PNA>0.0 /+EPO in October vs opposite in La Nina. I expanded it a bit. The research I did yesterday was pretty interesting.