StormchaserChuck!
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Posts posted by StormchaserChuck!
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Expect models to trend warmer in the LR for the next few days.
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Models going to be trending much more -PNA through the long range in the next few days. Maybe through November.
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We are also going to have the most -PNA on record for Sept-Oct since 1948, by a long shot. Next one is like 0.70/this. (I'm using 500mb).
I am also going to bring this up... Deepening in the central Nina-subsurface, models will trend much more -PNA in the coming days.
https://ibb.co/8gYRDsk. I expect us to be deep -PNA into Nov 5th.
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We are also going to have the most -PNA on record for Sept-Oct since 1948, by a long shot. Next one is like 0.70/this. (I'm using 500mb).
I am also going to bring this up... Deepening in the central Nina-subsurface, models will trend much more -PNA in the coming days.
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WPO runs into the NAO at +15-30 days. The correlation vs atmospheric momentum/random is 0.0. It comes from the PNA at -15-25 days. The atmospheric momentum vs random is like 0.05.
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What is the WPO? What's it's derivative, the PDO? I didn't get any cutoff lows in Russian in my research. The rollforward/rollbackward +60 days didn't give any significant clues. (Maybe planetary clues?)
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It certainly looks like -NAO/-AO, which we will have been in 45 days... other than that, much drier.
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1988-9 is my favorite analog for legit La Nina.
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I'm feeling shades of 2018.. we are going to hit 45days of -NAO right before it gets cold.
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-NAO going to on to like 45 straight days. Unfortunately October NAO is like 60% correlated with Winter +NAO.
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Page cut out ro something. My bad, after March '93 it was a loss of interest. 90-91, 91-92, 92-93 were all good.
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I really liked 93-94, too. A lot of flurry storms. Same thing in 94-95, 92-93, 91-92.. 2-4" powdery clippers.
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I even did a subsurface vs surface study, and found that when the surface was ENSO state vs the subsurface there was 0.0/1 correlation to pattern, in some cases opposite.
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95-96 was a La Nina (not in the subsurface)
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We are going to have like 40 straight days of -NAO, going into Nov1st. 4th time this year. ( I would post images if I had more attachment space- I think 19/19 of last -NAO have all been associated with -PNA or +EPO.
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-QBO, I think, is saying Nov15-Dec15 will be cold, but I don't think we will break -PNA. -PNA.
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19 hours ago, clskinsfan said:
Yeah. Meant to say one that is happening in MT. I was pretty hammered last night. So just ignore.
MT isn't real, I found a 0.00 correlation between Mountain Torque and Stratospheric warming.
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On 10/15/2021 at 9:12 AM, CAPE said:
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PNA
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2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:
I wouldn’t be mad if we got December 2017 again, but the rest was a disappointment.
We kind of had continental cold sitting, but..
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3 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:
Do you have any years that look like good analogs to you?
2017-18, fake El Nino
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2005-6 kept coming up as an analog, it was in like 5/5 studies I did... I don't think it's a good analog though
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Analogs to 30S S.A. cold extension.
Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021
in Southeastern States
Posted
Expect models to trend warmer in the LR for the next few days.