StormchaserChuck!
-
Posts
2,273 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Posts posted by StormchaserChuck!
-
-
(fake -NAO)
-
2
-
-
I did a roll-forward one year after cold water extended to 30S, the next year, Nino1.2->to 30S is -0.1 to -0.5, Nino 3/4 0.0 (Neutral)
-
12 minutes ago, raindancewx said:
This is probably the simplest way to explain why I'm not in the Modoki La Nina camp. Right now, it is much warmer than last year by Peru. Last year, the cold there shifted West. This year, the body of "less cold" should shift West. The cold below the surface should come up to the east though.
(map)
In general, there is a big trend to much more -IOD conditions (warmer near Indonesia, colder east of East Africa), and the -PDO especially - 2-5C colder by the West Coast, warmer east of Japan where the warm tongue is for the -PDO.
-NAO
-
I loved AZ.. beautiful state. Watch the models trend more -PNA at Day 15, away from current+PNA
-
I doubt the +EPO cuts into +PNA but the beginning of November (-PNA)
-
1
-
-
My best analog is 20-21, although maybe the February cold happens in January (with -PNA/+EPO favored during -NAO in January)
I also like 10-11, 11-12, 08-09, 07-08
(It's too bad we didn't do El Nino this Winter, for testing purposes)
-
^ The SH -PDO is pretty interesting (not too many examples of symmetry)
-
It was a cool Summer here too. Seems that after June, it never went above 90.
-
-
1
-
2
-
-
Winter cancel cancel (-PNA/-PDO)
-
1
-
-
^ Dec 2010 reference
-
There was a nice global cooling in 1992 that popped the NAO-
-
Maybe it will pourover into NAO---___
-
I think all the SSTAs show is that we can go back to -NAO
-
1
-
-
I think we can go back to +EPO for the Winter.
-
1
-
-
It's going to get warm to overperform here days 4-7.
-
After a 500mb low at -500dm anomaly off the West coast (Day 4), it might get warm to overperform here. I also expect -PNA, strong, through November.
-
The beginning
-
It starts
-
384hr GFS looks really good
I bet it will trend more -PNA/SE ridge, but if this holds, we did get 5.5" on Nov 15, 2018 here.
-
1
-
1
-
-
384hr GFS looks really good
I bet it will trend more -PNA/SE ridge, but if this holds, we did get 5.5" on Nov 15, 2018 down here.
-
1
-
4
-
-
1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:
Love to get our best winter pattern in mid November!
Yeah, we had that in 2018. I wonder if it will get cold with all the -NAO potential this Winter. It's been popping with -PNA. I wonder what the next few Winter's will be like..If every -NAO/-PNA run together, eventually something has to happen or become more macro..
-
10 hours ago, nj2va said:
With the skyrocketing home heating prices, I wouldn’t mind a mild winter.
00, 05, 09, 02...
minus 08, 01. I'll take it..
'97 had increasing prices, but that easily could have been a good Winter.. alot of -NAO potential in '97
-
Yeah, 250 million people, and you search "radar", you get National Weather Service as the only 1 and now that's not working lol. I'll never get that.
Nov/Dec 2021 Med/Long Range
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
West coast drought is busting.. what happened when 2015 broke.