StormchaserChuck!
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Posts posted by StormchaserChuck!
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SW is blasting lately, last few years, in the Spring.
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not good.
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Good post. Most of my analogs were cold for November and January.
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Yeah, ? Realnice +AO/+EPO coming up this Winter, what do you want to do, spin it?
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Kind of like to see the -NAO on 6zGFS ensembles at 384, +150dm-Nov11, wonder if it's just warm Canada lagging..
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Yeah, we have this horrible Canadian ridge.. focus only on Canada, greatest anomalies of the whole Hemisphere, for 15+days
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html
Say what you want about indexes, that's a 3SD Canada, 1SD everywhere else
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I think we'll carry a -PNA into the Spring.
Check this out.. I made a diverse cold pressure South America composite of 20analogs.. Some El Nino's, some Neutral's, mostly Nina's
Cold water South America, 20 analogs https://ibb.co/xjmJKtw https://ibb.co/tZ3k5ZK
2 years later it's a strong El Nino signal!
Classic Peruvian fisherman study the wind, and predict global weather for 2 years ahead.
Also, it's a ridiculous -PNA composite for the Winter
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^seems higher quality
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Yeah, pretty solid +PNA on 18z GFS ensembles, but I bet this over the US wins though (I said watch more -PNA trend as we get closer)
And here's a big pattern setting up at D15
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It seems like a good planet for someone to hide.
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I have a feeling it will be different than20-21, same long range patterns though: pacific jet500 miles north,etc.
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first time I was moderated in a long time. I ran out of attachment space.
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Cold wind off of South America, 20 analogs
Cold South America coast pressure/wind(now)
I diversified, including Strong Nino's of 72 and 65 as(neg-ENSO), and Neutral analogs
^That's for the Winter. It's still -PNA, alot
Through next July
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We had warm water off the N.A /S.A coasts before all 3 Strong El Nino's.
Started in 90-91... all the way to 97-98
Started in 79-80.. to 82-83
High pressure off the Westcoast U.S. 2013-2015, to 15-16
68-69 to 72-73 El Nino
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Last 2 and 4 years
Cold South America coast pressure/wind
We'll call it the 2016~7-2021 regime.
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Cold wind off of South America, 20 analogs
1 year later
2 years later it's a strong El Nino signal!
^That's after a random mix of 20 analogs!
I diversified, including Strong Nino's of 72 and 65 as(neg-ENSO), and many Neutral analogs
It's still -PNA for this Winter, alot ^that's Dec-Mar
Nov
Last 2 and 4 years
Cold South America coast wind
We'll call it the 2016-2021 regime.
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Cold wind off of South America, 20 analogs
2 years later it's a strong El Nino signal!
I diversified, including Strong Nino's of 72 and 65 as(neg-ENSO), and many Neutral analogs
It's still -PNA, alot
Through next July
-QBO <-15 right now is 10-3, 10/13 chance of being negative two years later,23-24,(which is strong -NAO/good Winter signal)
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That seems to pop up before December 21st, sometimes to Jan1.
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I am completely unable to access it, it should still be good (unable to change password).
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We have some +AAM coming in here
This is a +ENSO-state, should be interesting to see what happens with ENSO. Because it's on there like ink blots, There may be a Stratosphere warming associated, if so, I would say this favors -PNA in December.
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I still like a +EPO/+AO/-PNA predominant Winter.
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November 2021 Chilly Blast (1st Wave)
in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Posted
^ Yeah, I noticed a Canada 3D warmth vs 1SD everywhere else, and neutral indexes, it will be hard for that to break.. 70s here and 80 the last few days/weeks. September broke it, though, It was no 2018.