StormchaserChuck!

^ Yeah, I noticed a Canada 3D warmth vs 1SD everywhere else, and neutral indexes, it will be hard for that to break.. 70s here and 80 the last few days/weeks. September broke it, though, It was no 2018.

SW is blasting lately, last few years, in the Spring.

not good.

Good post. Most of my analogs were cold for November and January.

Yeah, ? Realnice +AO/+EPO coming up this Winter, what do you want to do, spin it?

bump

Kind of like to see the -NAO on 6zGFS ensembles at 384, +150dm-Nov11, wonder if it's just warm Canada lagging..

Good references.

Yeah, we have this horrible Canadian ridge.. focus only on Canada, greatest anomalies of the whole Hemisphere, for 15+days http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html Say what you want about indexes, that's a 3SD Canada, 1SD everywhere else

I think we'll carry a -PNA into the Spring. Check this out.. I made a diverse cold pressure South America composite of 20analogs.. Some El Nino's, some Neutral's, mostly Nina's Cold water South America, 20 analogs https://ibb.co/xjmJKtw https://ibb.co/tZ3k5ZK 2 years later it's a strong El Nino signal! https://ibb.co/0ZLs4T9 Classic Peruvian fisherman study the wind, and predict global weather for 2 years ahead. Also, it's a ridiculous -PNA composite for the Winter https://ibb.co/R9Sk75d

^seems higher quality

Yeah, pretty solid +PNA on 18z GFS ensembles, but I bet this over the US wins though (I said watch more -PNA trend as we get closer) https://ibb.co/n0PR8B1 And here's a big pattern setting up at D15 https://ibb.co/BKgh8dr

It seems like a good planet for someone to hide.

I have a feeling it will be different than20-21, same long range patterns though: pacific jet500 miles north,etc.

first time I was moderated in a long time. I ran out of attachment space.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadian_dollar

Cold wind off of South America, 20 analogs https://ibb.co/xjmJKtw Cold South America coast pressure/wind(now) https://ibb.co/tZ3k5ZK I diversified, including Strong Nino's of 72 and 65 as(neg-ENSO), and Neutral analogs https://ibb.co/R9Sk75d ^That's for the Winter. It's still -PNA, alot Through next July https://ibb.co/qChknGG

We had warm water off the N.A /S.A coasts before all 3 Strong El Nino's. Started in 90-91... all the way to 97-98 Started in 79-80.. to 82-83 High pressure off the Westcoast U.S. 2013-2015, to 15-16 68-69 to 72-73 El Nino https://ibb.co/DVKGS4N

Last 2 and 4 years https://ibb.co/mc4jMDV https://ibb.co/zQzFmnD Cold South America coast pressure/wind https://ibb.co/tZ3k5ZK We'll call it the 2016~7-2021 regime.

Cold wind off of South America, 20 analogs https://ibb.co/xjmJKtw 1 year later https://ibb.co/5hZH5kd 2 years later it's a strong El Nino signal! https://ibb.co/0ZLs4T9 ^That's after a random mix of 20 analogs! I diversified, including Strong Nino's of 72 and 65 as(neg-ENSO), and many Neutral analogs https://ibb.co/R9Sk75d It's still -PNA for this Winter, alot ^that's Dec-Mar Nov https://ibb.co/QYtCK1F Last 2 and 4 years https://ibb.co/mc4jMDV https://ibb.co/zQzFmnD Cold South America coast wind https://ibb.co/tZ3k5ZK We'll call it the 2016-2021 regime.

Cold wind off of South America, 20 analogs https://ibb.co/xjmJKtw 2 years later it's a strong El Nino signal! https://ibb.co/0ZLs4T9 I diversified, including Strong Nino's of 72 and 65 as(neg-ENSO), and many Neutral analogs https://ibb.co/R9Sk75d It's still -PNA, alot Through next July https://ibb.co/qChknGG -QBO <-15 right now is 10-3, 10/13 chance of being negative two years later,23-24,(which is strong -NAO/good Winter signal)

That seems to pop up before December 21st, sometimes to Jan1.

I am completely unable to access it, it should still be good (unable to change password).

We have some +AAM coming in here https://ibb.co/dprj60C This is a +ENSO-state, should be interesting to see what happens with ENSO. Because it's on there like ink blots, There may be a Stratosphere warming associated, if so, I would say this favors -PNA in December.

I still like a +EPO/+AO/-PNA predominant Winter.