StormchaserChuck!

We went +ENSO in 79-80, for 3 years, then 90-91 for 7 years. 01-02 we kind of went +ENSO. 

I was thinking January would be cooler, but it might be warmer with a ridge connecting to the -NAO. 

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Chuck, what's your thoughts and answer on the Winter of 1950-51 ? Neg. PDO + La nina.

   I know a different Climate Era but, worth a discussion. Hlb clearly altered the typical La nina -PDO outcome as it did in mid 60's and 95-96 and 2010-11.

   I've not checked QBO Status from that year. 

I was thinking of this today, 48-57 had a lot of Neg -PNA at the same time in AMO cycle. It could be good, it seems we were coming out of La Nina to more +ENSO phase at that time. 

I think the Hadley Cell's just a little north. You can get GOA low's/Aleutian Low's, but not moderate-deep +PNA's. I also wonder if this Winter will be +EPO.. I did a study that had Oct-Nov hurricanes int he Atlantic at 7,7,6,7,(+EPO) vs 2,3 opposite, and yet there have been 0 so far. 

lol.. I was talking about how it's going to be 6th straight year of -PNA after Strong El Nino.. kind of presupposing future, I guess. It's a trend that started around 2000, that I really want to learn about. 

WXUSAF loves to delete my posts. 

Yeah, the whole pattern is starting to look like a west-based -PNA. I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes strong/centralized in the 20-25day range. 

I wonder what cold ENSO neutralizing/warming, starting in late October looks like.. 

We are at the time of year where there is one more central subsurface push, but otherwise I'd say we are in the general pattern/trend of warming back to +ENSO, especially to April-May. 

Yeah, I wonder if that warm can break 180W. It seems to me that the La Nina is dead. 

Oh, opps. https://ibb.co/n0Jbpm3

2/3 turned the page to long term +ENSO cycles the following (7th year). 

6 year's after Strong El Nino's

https://ibb.co/dJWxSdw

6 year's after Strong El Nino's

https://ibb.co/dJWxSdw

I've seen this before, they are using '89 and '05 as QBO analogs, for some reason around this time they heavily weight QBO into December.. I wouldn't bet on cold. 

Top 20 NAO analogs Aug11-Nov15, we are #1 or #2

https://ibb.co/GWVhDzH

^Dec-Mar

This keeps popping up

https://ibb.co/VCxt41t

Since 1948, kind of a weak dataset. We will finish Aug11-Nov 15 2021 #1 or #2 strongest NAO on record(based on 500mb)/20

This was probably most -NAO(1960-61)

https://ibb.co/M5TkT7v

Top 20 NAO analogs Aug11-Nov15, we are #1 or #2

https://ibb.co/GWVhDzH

^Dec-Mar

This keeps popping up

https://ibb.co/VCxt41t

January will be -NAO with highs in the 30s, 40s and 50s.. no chance of ice storm

Some slight +ENSO tendency here for next year

https://ibb.co/1KtNpqg analogs https://ibb.co/CKsYbKL

https://ibb.co/rxGGYpK

Again, the last few times we have done this -PNA/+EPO/potentialenergy-NAO thing, the Winter has had a general warming skew

https://ibb.co/1KtNpqg

https://ibb.co/1bb4hpr

https://ibb.co/X4X4Fwj

neg Analogs https://ibb.co/Y7wBZ8z

https://ibb.co/CKsYbKL

Yeah, we can get some strong-NAO with highs in the 50s and 60s. 

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

some issues with a "cold" November

1.  Canada remains warm in a relative sense.

The GOA Low gets stuck over the Ocean here http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

This is pretty cool https://ibb.co/gF4zx7k, It looks like we are evolving into a -PNA/+EPO pattern for late-November though. 

^Geez, that's really -PNA for the Winter https://ibb.co/DfnXmyD

DCA +2.0

NYC +2.0

BOS +1.8

ORD 0

ATL +2.0

IAH  +1.0

DEN 0

PHX +0.5

SEA  -1.5

In 1964 we had some good October warm going into a good Winter.