StormchaserChuck!

Oct NAO analogs, right over the Baffin Island/Davis Straight there

https://ibb.co/fkJ8KzT

https://ibb.co/Cshrjt6

https://ibb.co/GPmn3Fb

https://ibb.co/2NNYxqG

oct 2021 https://ibb.co/zbVkXz8

Oct 2021 composite and NAO-onlypoint/1st point analogs

https://ibb.co/zbVkXz8

https://ibb.co/r6PBVwb

Dec-Mar https://ibb.co/nf09vff 

I would do a classic La Nina map for precip (05-06, and 06-07 were both that way, although one was El Nino and one La Nina)

Oct NAO analogs, an expanded set 

(Dec-Mar) https://ibb.co/nf09vff

Edit: another OctNAO analog composite- 1970s, first one was 1980 to now

https://ibb.co/vHTYgfB look at how the Pacific used to get trumped.  1950shttps://ibb.co/1d4H5kf

^5 consecutive years 2002-2006 all had very -NAO October's

https://ibb.co/CMB9G9z

4/5 of these years were +ENSO, Jan-Feb:

https://ibb.co/kmCWhxw

I was saying 2005/2006 was a good Winter analog

Oct NAO https://ibb.co/nCQZ76t

Check out Nov https://ibb.co/VBV8Xh8 really close to what's being modeled now https://ibb.co/xqdyM4k

Feb-maybe we'll have a good -NAO in jan or feb

Oct NAO analogs https://ibb.co/nBkCyPw

I love it.. never experienced such a pretty early Nov before. full green here Nov 4th. 

I think the only reason 12z GFS ensembles have -WPO/-EPO Nov 13th on, is because of QBO analogs. (to Dec 15th)

yup

heading for Ireland as a TS

That's impressive.. another storm hits Europe, -PNA until further notice. 

One heck of an +AO on 15-day models.. those were my analogs for the Winter, +AO/+EPO

One heck of an +AO on 15-day models.. those were my analogs +AO/+EPO

One heck of an +AO on 15-day models.. those were my analogs +AO/+EPO

Really nice +PNA Nov 15-18 on 6z GFS ensembles

Nice +PNA today, but we don't need the PNA in November, we need -NAO and after today it goes away, for it looks like 2 weeks.

Oct -NAO, followed by Nov +NAO is followed by +NAO Winter 68% of the time (-58% Oct) (+62% Nov)

Anyway, I feel that +PNA this November will just weigh on potential energy to amplify Dec-Mar -PNA

Kind of +PNA today and tomorrow, what's your temp?

I also like how it's 80* when we have our first two +PNA-look days since like July. 

Whoa, that is a strong +AO/NAO days 4-11. 

I was going to mention 1995.. it feels nothing like '95 where Canada was wide open and we had cold/dry frigid air blowing through,,, but it was -NAO in the Fall

It's just the water temperature. 

I'll say it right now.. I don't like this movement away from -NAO in models over the last few days. It could be like 2018 if we don't hit it hard all the time, I think.Feels like 2018

Hey, we didn't have a landfalling US tropical storm for 11 years after Katrina... 

We were never so warm at 180 in the subsurface in 2019 and it never went to El Nino, better chance than that time that was followed by La Nina. 

14 hours ago, snowman19 said:

It looks like it gets real mild again by mid-November, nothing like October was, but definitely above normal….question is what happens at the end of the month going into early December?

I wonder if we do a fake -QBO thing,, '89, '05, 16 years is '21. No, I think -PNA will blast it.

(73-74 was a Strong La Nina [-16years], but Nov 15-Dec 15 was really cold pattern.. -NAO, -AO/EPO, otherwise it was really warm the rest of the Winter. 

(1957 was El Nino Air temps and 500mb: https://ibb.co/8sg0VY5 https://ibb.co/Y20VVjL)