StormchaserChuck!
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Posts posted by StormchaserChuck!
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coming for you WxUSAF
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Underperforming solar ascension phase favors La Nina vs El Nino, and some would say -NAO.. (late1960s and ~2009-2013)
October NAO is 58% oppositely correlated with the Winter, but when Aug-Nov are -NAO, it's 60-65% for.
fwiw solar ascension phase underperforming vs norm https://ibb.co/DgxKhkX
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On 11/8/2021 at 9:32 PM, stadiumwave said:
This La Nina is dying. Who would've thought a month ago?
Lol @ CFS strong Nina forecast
They usually don't die this early, 1954,1956, then 1974. 1956 was followed by 5/7years +ENSO, and 3 El Nino's - 0 La Nina's, 1974 was followed by 6/7years +ENSO, and 4 El Nino's to 0 La Nina's. 11/14, and 7-0, if you call 1954-1956 all one thing. (Those are the ONI's that rose in La Nina from OND to NDJ
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Today 70s and 80s, nice clipper in 4-5 days. Feels like 1995.
1995 with -PNA, I'm watching it develop at 14-15days GFS.
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I don't know why the hell my post was deleted about my NAO research-index for the Winter. I spent a lot of time on that.
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Yeah, when this retrogrades you usually have a +EPO take shape
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13-14 had that healthy Westcoast/east Pacific ridge connecting up. https://ibb.co/3Tp7vmT. Unless you think northern CA is going to be in the 50s in January, I'd stay away from that analog.
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Hard to believe they could be 2-6.. I agree, all they need to do really is try and everyone else plays within a definite range or something.
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Yeah, you just keep getting better and better..
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This 12z 384hr GFS is showing I think that a -PNA is going to pop up in the 20-25+ day range.
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My interpretation is that we feel a lot different going into the Winter vs the last few years, even last year. I think we have more legit -NAO shot this Winter, legitimately. +PNA now is going to swing back to crazy -PNA/+EPO for a lot of the Winter.
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Look at Nov 2008 as an analog
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+PNA Nov in La Nina switches the next year 5-3 El Nino.. -PNA Nov in La Nina goes 7-0 to another La Nina.
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It looks like on GFS ensembles that we turn the corner to cold around Nov14th/15... I'd be worried about a QBO-fake, meaning -QBO analogs are ridiculously cold Nov15-Dec15 for no real reason. I think we might pop a ridge north of Hawaii.
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Really just ridiculous +PNA wrt what is being experienced in the ENSO subsurface.. I say it over and over, this is a winner.
^GFSensembles is +PNA for next 16-days. https://ibb.co/FXfj8DW
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3-year Nina
followed by 3 years of what we talked about
I expect a 2013-2014-2015 WC potential energy repeat.
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The 55-56 analog is ridiculous.. next 5 Winter's
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Digging -PDO in October <-1 is really -PNA
But not in Nov
Opp analogs https://ibb.co/4RcVJYr good -NAO too
We had 3 periods of 3+ year -PDO's, they all went +ENSO 1-4 years after3/3
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It's one of my analogs
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If we can do it, +AO/-NAO... definitely +EPO/+AO. -PNA I think, yes.
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Anyway, +ENSO now is correlated to a -PNA Jan-Mar, I think. Maybe even Jan-May/Jun.
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Man that Euro seasonal stuff is horrible. That's not in line with analogs at all.. I guess if Europe win's the war. That's one heck of a -PNA Jan-Mar, can't argue with that though.
ECMWF.int
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The 160W-150W area is most important in the subsurface, and now it's net warm, I would technically as per all of my ENSO research classify this a +ENSO right now, and look what models have in a few days.
I don't think a La Nina has ever gone dead that early, they cycle through about Dec 21st, so I think we may see a redevelopment of cold anomalies in 160-150W starting in about 10-15 days.. but right now the strong western warm pool has breached the most important region.. kind of surprising I wonder if we will hit Strong Nino next year, I remember some impressive attempts/fails in 96-97 and 01-02.
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Cicadas 2021 - Brood X
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
no more cicadas.