StormchaserChuck!

no more cicadas.

coming for you WxUSAF

Underperforming solar ascension phase favors La Nina vs El Nino, and some would say -NAO.. (late1960s and ~2009-2013) October NAO is 58% oppositely correlated with the Winter, but when Aug-Nov are -NAO, it's 60-65% for. fwiw solar ascension phase underperforming vs norm https://ibb.co/DgxKhkX

They usually don't die this early, 1954,1956, then 1974. 1956 was followed by 5/7years +ENSO, and 3 El Nino's - 0 La Nina's, 1974 was followed by 6/7years +ENSO, and 4 El Nino's to 0 La Nina's. 11/14, and 7-0, if you call 1954-1956 all one thing. (Those are the ONI's that rose in La Nina from OND to NDJ

Today 70s and 80s, nice clipper in 4-5 days. Feels like 1995. 1995 with -PNA, I'm watching it develop at 14-15days GFS.

I don't know why the hell my post was deleted about my NAO research-index for the Winter. I spent a lot of time on that.

Yeah, when this retrogrades you usually have a +EPO take shape https://ibb.co/26Z9GS0

13-14 had that healthy Westcoast/east Pacific ridge connecting up. https://ibb.co/3Tp7vmT. Unless you think northern CA is going to be in the 50s in January, I'd stay away from that analog.

Hard to believe they could be 2-6.. I agree, all they need to do really is try and everyone else plays within a definite range or something.

Yeah, you just keep getting better and better..

This 12z 384hr GFS is showing I think that a -PNA is going to pop up in the 20-25+ day range. https://ibb.co/Q6x4bS5

My interpretation is that we feel a lot different going into the Winter vs the last few years, even last year. I think we have more legit -NAO shot this Winter, legitimately. +PNA now is going to swing back to crazy -PNA/+EPO for a lot of the Winter.

Look at Nov 2008 as an analog https://ibb.co/XLcTRY8 https://ibb.co/94mCFX0

+PNA Nov in La Nina switches the next year 5-3 El Nino.. -PNA Nov in La Nina goes 7-0 to another La Nina.

It looks like on GFS ensembles that we turn the corner to cold around Nov14th/15... I'd be worried about a QBO-fake, meaning -QBO analogs are ridiculously cold Nov15-Dec15 for no real reason. I think we might pop a ridge north of Hawaii.

Really just ridiculous +PNA wrt what is being experienced in the ENSO subsurface.. I say it over and over, this is a winner. https://ibb.co/hDcL3t8 ^GFSensembles is +PNA for next 16-days. https://ibb.co/FXfj8DW https://ibb.co/mGxHb6H

3-year Nina https://ibb.co/27CXg3h followed by 3 years of what we talked about https://ibb.co/ZKVmMhJ I expect a 2013-2014-2015 WC potential energy repeat.

The 55-56 analog is ridiculous.. next 5 Winter's

Digging -PDO in October <-1 is really -PNA https://ibb.co/pwYgvgN But not in Nov https://ibb.co/Y38stHk Opp analogs https://ibb.co/4RcVJYr good -NAO too We had 3 periods of 3+ year -PDO's, they all went +ENSO 1-4 years after3/3 https://psl.noaa.gov/pdo/data/pdo.timeseries.ersstv5.data

It's one of my analogs

If we can do it, +AO/-NAO... definitely +EPO/+AO. -PNA I think, yes.

Anyway, +ENSO now is correlated to a -PNA Jan-Mar, I think. Maybe even Jan-May/Jun.

Man that Euro seasonal stuff is horrible. That's not in line with analogs at all.. I guess if Europe win's the war. That's one heck of a -PNA Jan-Mar, can't argue with that though. ECMWF.int

The 160W-150W area is most important in the subsurface, and now it's net warm, I would technically as per all of my ENSO research classify this a +ENSO right now, and look what models have in a few days. https://ibb.co/9V7Wdb8 I don't think a La Nina has ever gone dead that early, they cycle through about Dec 21st, so I think we may see a redevelopment of cold anomalies in 160-150W starting in about 10-15 days.. but right now the strong western warm pool has breached the most important region.. kind of surprising I wonder if we will hit Strong Nino next year, I remember some impressive attempts/fails in 96-97 and 01-02.