StormchaserChuck!
-
Posts
2,273 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Posts posted by StormchaserChuck!
-
-
5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:
If you were to believe the gfs, after this week it may not be warm for a while.
Big -PNA developing around the 1st/2 of December.
-
1
-
-
Big -PNA signal for December.. let's see if the subsurface cold restrengthens
-
-
Kind of silly, but we have been running opposite of last year 500mb N. Hemisphere at >75% each month of the last 4(Aug-Nov), continues into Dec1.
-
Kind of silly, but we have been running opposite of last year 500mb N. Hemisphere at >75% each month of the last 4(Aug-Nov), continues into Dec1.
-
Kind of silly, but we have been running opposite of last year 500mb N. Hemisphere at >75% each month of the last 4(Aug-Nov), continues into Dec1.
-
I think we are just looking at the last few March-May's warming tendency. That 160W area is a big one though.. notice the +PNA now.
-
18z GFS ensembles has a real nice +PNA,-NAO Nov 28th.
-
1
-
-
TAO maps are now warm, no real chance it strengthen beyond the cold subsurface wave we just saw/passed. Weak Nina at best as a ONI peak.
For 2 years, these do the best as analogs
1970 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 1971 -1.4 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -0.9 2007 0.7 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 -1.6 2008 -1.6 -1.5 -1.3 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7
2016 2.5 2.1 1.6 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 3/3 El Nino's the following year, fwiw https://ibb.co/GPfszSF https://ibb.co/N2WFLcs
I still like the solar ascension phase underperforming, which gives more La Nina tendency:
2009 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.6 Year
DJF
JFM
FMA
MAM
AMJ
MJJ
JJA
JAS
ASO
SON
OND
NDJ
2010 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.4 -0.2 -0.7 -1.0 -1.3 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.2 09-10 is the anomaly. I think we could go weak El Nino conditions in the Spring, then fade out, giving us another Winter of -PNA, next year, 22-23.
-
I can always tell when it's +PNA pattern.. big difference
-
All of the usual suspects, ~this time creates the long term pattern I think. soon to be decided.
-
36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:
wow it would be amazing if they ever got accumulating snow from a coastal storm
https://www.weather.gov/hun/hunsur_1993_03_12-14
Could have been bigger believe it or not if it bombed off the East Coast.
-
1
-
-
Fwiw, 1987-88 was a subsurface La Nina with an El Nino at the surface, I think the EastCoast would do well snow this Winter only if that happened (subsurface turns positive in all regions Dec-Jan, very low chance)
^Subsurface going negative well before surface changes. Like I said, subsurface correlation is 0.90+0 with the pattern, surface is 0.75+0. (actually, that's just to prove a point, it's more like 0.82 vs 0.77, but lack of data. It beat everytime I think since 1979.)
-
I wouldn't be surprised if the -NAO flares with an equal -PNA/+EPO Pacific for the 20th straight time. This, after 34 straight Winter months of +NAO (now -NAO=+EPO/-PNA)
-
My idea of subsurface progression could look like this for the Winter.
-
1 hour ago, bluewave said:
It looks like a battle between the warmer Alaska +EPO trough and cooler ridge near the US West Coast. So we get a series of Pacific storms with warm ups ahead of them and cool downs behind. The monthly temperature departure may not be decided until the end of the month.
It does seem like we are going +EPO, with no real chance of -EPO this Winter. I bet it evolves into more -PNA, but that evolution could be interesting, especially with strong -NAO signal. The Pacific might actually just cancel out.
-
3 hours ago, bluewave said:
The Southeast is winning the November cold departure battle so far.
I can't believe the +8 in the Upper Midwest, they might have a very mild Winter.(MN, SD, ND, eastern MT)
-
1
-
-
January looks to be cold, -AO/-NAO wave.
-
1
-
-
10 hours ago, CAPE said:
The Ravens really needed to take care of business against the lowly Dolphins.
Week 11: at Chicago Bears, Nov. 21, 1 p.m.
Week 12: vs. Cleveland Browns, Nov. 28, 8:20 p.m.
Week 13: at Pittsburgh Steelers, Dec. 5, 4:25 p.m.
Week 14: at Cleveland Browns, Dec. 12, 1 p.m.
Week 15: vs. Green Bay Packers, Dec. 19, 1 p.m.
Week 16: at Cincinnati Bengals, Dec. 26, 1 p.m.
Week 17: vs. Los Angeles Rams, Jan 2, 2022, 4:25 p.m.
Week 18: vs. Pittsburgh Steelers, Jan 9, 2022, 1 p.m.
Packers are good, that's about it.
-
1997, believe it or not
1997 10 1.35 2.05 2.56 1997 11 1.19 1.94 2.30 1997 12 .56 1.15 1.02 1998 1 -.24 .16 .00
1982 11 1.20 1.74 1.92 1982 12 .80 1.26 1.45 1983 1 -.10 .15 .05
(I think we'll do a 1986 similarity(opposite))
1986 10 .60 .81 .95 1986 11 .38 .53 .52 1986 12 .59 .77 .97 1987 1 .54 .93 1.22 1987 2 .15 .37 .17
-
Nice write up on the weather side, Ray. If I had more time I would go through it. I hadn't realized the solar activity had jumped.
-
1
-
-
I should have gone warmer in the SW, it takes a pattern break to not get those really warm temps.
-
1
-
-
5 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:
Where do you live? I expect any leaves remaining on the trees to be stripped bare tomorrow. We are past peak out this way.
Maryland.. I keep expecting it to break, but the leaves are full like 95% as of yesterday.
-
1
-
-
3 hours ago, bluewave said:
A -1 to +1 first 10 days of November feels much colder due to the record warmth in September and October.
EWR….+0.6
NYC…..-1.1
LGA….+0.8
JFK….+0.3
ISP…..-0.6
BDR….-0.6
HPN….-1.2
Actually, it's felt like a very mild November down here, 70s the last two days. All the trees are still green on Nov 11th..
-
1
-
Nov/Dec 2021 Med/Long Range
in Mid Atlantic
Posted
Not a valid tool. GFS ensembles and ECMWF. never advanced past that point.