StormchaserChuck!

Not a valid tool. GFS ensembles and ECMWF. never advanced past that point.

Big -PNA developing around the 1st/2 of December.

Big -PNA signal for December.. let's see if the subsurface cold restrengthens

^new 6z GFS https://ibb.co/JpL89sK https://ibb.co/QnqgC5J

Kind of silly, but we have been running opposite of last year 500mb N. Hemisphere at >75% each month of the last 4(Aug-Nov), continues into Dec1. https://ibb.co/QCfJQ28 https://ibb.co/QnqgC5J https://ibb.co/cDRTQcn https://ibb.co/Trg2KZj https://ibb.co/SVfYRfj

Kind of silly, but we have been running opposite of last year 500mb N. Hemisphere at >75% each month of the last 4(Aug-Nov), continues into Dec1. https://ibb.co/QCfJQ28 https://ibb.co/QnqgC5J https://ibb.co/cDRTQcn https://ibb.co/Trg2KZj https://ibb.co/SVfYRfj

Kind of silly, but we have been running opposite of last year 500mb N. Hemisphere at >75% each month of the last 4(Aug-Nov), continues into Dec1. https://ibb.co/QCfJQ28 https://ibb.co/QnqgC5J

I think we are just looking at the last few March-May's warming tendency. That 160W area is a big one though.. notice the +PNA now.

18z GFS ensembles has a real nice +PNA,-NAO Nov 28th.

TAO maps are now warm, no real chance it strengthen beyond the cold subsurface wave we just saw/passed. Weak Nina at best as a ONI peak. For 2 years, these do the best as analogs 1970 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 1971 -1.4 -1.4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -1.0 -0.9 2007 0.7 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -1.5 -1.6 2008 -1.6 -1.5 -1.3 -1.0 -0.8 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 2016 2.5 2.1 1.6 0.9 0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 2017 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 3/3 El Nino's the following year, fwiw https://ibb.co/GPfszSF https://ibb.co/N2WFLcs I still like the solar ascension phase underperforming, which gives more La Nina tendency: 2009 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.6 Year DJF JFM FMA MAM AMJ MJJ JJA JAS ASO SON OND NDJ 2010 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.4 -0.2 -0.7 -1.0 -1.3 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 2011 -1.4 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.0 2012 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.2 09-10 is the anomaly. I think we could go weak El Nino conditions in the Spring, then fade out, giving us another Winter of -PNA, next year, 22-23.

I can always tell when it's +PNA pattern.. big difference

All of the usual suspects, ~this time creates the long term pattern I think. soon to be decided. https://ibb.co/T4zLFpS

https://www.weather.gov/hun/hunsur_1993_03_12-14 Could have been bigger believe it or not if it bombed off the East Coast.

Fwiw, 1987-88 was a subsurface La Nina with an El Nino at the surface, I think the EastCoast would do well snow this Winter only if that happened (subsurface turns positive in all regions Dec-Jan, very low chance) https://ibb.co/d2JGy2n ^Subsurface going negative well before surface changes. Like I said, subsurface correlation is 0.90+0 with the pattern, surface is 0.75+0. (actually, that's just to prove a point, it's more like 0.82 vs 0.77, but lack of data. It beat everytime I think since 1979.)

I wouldn't be surprised if the -NAO flares with an equal -PNA/+EPO Pacific for the 20th straight time. This, after 34 straight Winter months of +NAO (now -NAO=+EPO/-PNA)

My idea of subsurface progression could look like this for the Winter. https://ibb.co/V9L4QSV

It does seem like we are going +EPO, with no real chance of -EPO this Winter. I bet it evolves into more -PNA, but that evolution could be interesting, especially with strong -NAO signal. The Pacific might actually just cancel out.

I can't believe the +8 in the Upper Midwest, they might have a very mild Winter.(MN, SD, ND, eastern MT)

January looks to be cold, -AO/-NAO wave.

Packers are good, that's about it.

1997, believe it or not 1997 10 1.35 2.05 2.56 1997 11 1.19 1.94 2.30 1997 12 .56 1.15 1.02 1998 1 -.24 .16 .00 1982 11 1.20 1.74 1.92 1982 12 .80 1.26 1.45 1983 1 -.10 .15 .05 (I think we'll do a 1986 similarity(opposite)) 1986 10 .60 .81 .95 1986 11 .38 .53 .52 1986 12 .59 .77 .97 1987 1 .54 .93 1.22 1987 2 .15 .37 .17

Nice write up on the weather side, Ray. If I had more time I would go through it. I hadn't realized the solar activity had jumped.

I should have gone warmer in the SW, it takes a pattern break to not get those really warm temps.

Maryland.. I keep expecting it to break, but the leaves are full like 95% as of yesterday.

Actually, it's felt like a very mild November down here, 70s the last two days. All the trees are still green on Nov 11th..