StormchaserChuck!

Yeah, that's actually a +400dm -PNA on the 18z GFS ensemble mean at 384hr. 

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

ENSO state only has a 20% of an impact on our weather, there are other more important factors

 

Watch the ENSO subsurface cool as the 384hr GFS ensemble mean has a +400dm -PNA in 15 days. 

165W in the subsurface is a big area.. I don't actually remember ever watching it where the ENSO state was crossed in November. I'm pretty sure +2 to +3 there means the La Nina will die, definitely by March-April. may be a build back west of the cold pool in Dec-Jan, but it won't be strong. 

My Winter NAO N. Atlantic SST index came in at -0.25 for DJFM, last year it was -0.1 and there had been 34 straight Winter months of +NAO to that point, 10-4 since realization in 2005.  It's average SD is 0.54 so...

Love that ~Dec5th timeframe for you guys. 

30 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter

 

We haven't had a strong La Nina in 11 years now. Averages are warmer, so it's probably more like a Moderate La Nina, but I think there is a somewhat -PNA disconnect coming up, so it could be -Neutral/Weak Nina..

It looks like 2 snow chances

https://ibb.co/bs8vTWm

https://ibb.co/BKCnq7c

Yeah, it's not looking good. Maybe we'll have a big +150dm -NAO in January. 

-PNA really builds in, I wouldn't be surprised if the GOA deepens little more, and coming out of -NAO, that's a good recipe for snowstorm. I think 40N still, somewhere in the 1st week of Dec. I have to remember the maps are always skewed warm, so the La Nina, for example, is stronger than the anomalies look. 

Models look juicy for 1st week of December! I can't see us getting over 2-4" max

It's a little weird, honestly, that we have La Nina/-PDO strong, +AMO, and going to have -NAO/-PNA Winter. These were the '60s winters, that I thought we would be +PDO-PNA/+NAO by now(that was the decadal trend). 

I like the 1st week of Dec for a snowstorm, but it may be 40N.

Man that is a strong -NAO on 18z GFS ensembles, it's too bad the +PNA can't get grounded.. it's all spread out and intersecting with +EPO. the trend is more toward -PNA

I love the wet-STJ (potential energy)as the NAO tanks negative the first week of Dec! Let's see if it holds. (Sometimes recently the long range 15+D -NAO hasn't held). 

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That's a solid pacific / west coast look. I'll take this during prime climo please.

Yeah, believe it or not, Nov's have been +PNA/opp-PNA in La Nina recently. 

Dec 5th.. I'm worried that the PNA will pop negative real fast, but even so there should be enough cold air to get snow as the +360dm+ block lifts out. 

2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Oh. -PNA cancel then Chuck?

I had the over under at +100dm Aleutian High , maybe +80 now lol

-NAO could hit -3, puts Dec 5th right at perfect timing for high chances.. that the models are getting wetter ahead of it is a good sign. 

Based on the 12z GFS ensembles, west-building -NAO at 384hr, look for a Winterstorm (maybe 12"+) ~Dec 5th. 

2things)

1) Look at that west-building -NAO at 384hr on the 12z GFS ensembles. It's going to be huge 2-3 days later!

2) -PNA is building and stabilizing after Dec 1. 

Look for a Winterstorm around Dec 5th. 

Anyway, The La Nina's waning, this is less of a -PNA signal than before. 

https://ibb.co/TMTyTrJ

https://ibb.co/VNqrbxC

Recently, +PNA Nov / -PNA Dec is a big +AO signal for Jan-Feb

https://ibb.co/G3361hQ

Over +300dm -NAO https://ibb.co/Ws4YhkZ

It's getting there. I only say something because it agrees with the cyclical ENSO, and other somewhat valid things imo. I think it's going to hold, -PNA development, in the 1st week of December. Remember we average 2-3" of snow in December, so it might still be early for snowfall. 

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

But op runs are? 

I use GFS ensemble mean.. it's really good at 384hr, Day 16, general index patterns verify at probably >80% when they have a stronger signal. Fits the pattern of what many analogs are showing, 6z GFS ensembles at 384hr this morning.