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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    +5 in the SW, wow, 1995-on has really been a High pressure bubble
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    It does look like on the 6z GFS ensembles at 384, we are getting ready for -NAO, and maybe -EPO, cold blast.
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    looks like a warm December.
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    +AAM, these are Earth's rotation, associated with +ENSO. I always like to monitor AAM events, because they are associated with gravity waves, rotation differences, etc.. in theory. This state is usually more associated with +ENSO, and I think it's correlated to the subsurface warming. I wonder if we will get a 2nd +push under 165W in about ~14 days. https://ibb.co/5Bpwvrt
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    Have to keep this in mind.. in the last 4 months (Aug-Nov) we have run opposite of 2020 at a top 5 highest neg correlation since 1948. https://ibb.co/bdRxjqS https://ibb.co/K7T7ns7
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    It's also interesting that we have been running opposite of last year now 4 months in a row, both at 500mb and on the surface. The correlation is >75% each of the 4 months so it's a pretty good anomaly.
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    I thought last year was ripe in the PDO for -PNA, this Winter it's fizzling. Look at this, an attempt at +AAM https://ibb.co/c6dcdGr
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    biggest -PNA in a long time happening Dec 4-6, let's see what it correlates to in the subsurface.. looks like a pretty solid transition from -ENSO to +ENSO..
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    That's one heck of a -PNA.. Dec 4-6. Almost breaks +480dm, it might in verification. Edit: I think this means no Stratospheric warming till at least Dec 10th, which means less -NAO signal until ~jan10th, fwiw
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    Honestly, I just want to talk about the weather. It's interesting.
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    WxUSAF deletes all my posts in this forum.. doesn't matter what it is. recently it's just been about a model that no one talked about.
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    Dec 4th -PNA in the last 15 years. https://ibb.co/9Ym7zFL https://ibb.co/VjfvXrP We are also going full on +ENSO on the dailies for February or March. Because we have -NAO tendency this year, I think an El Nino next Winter would make 09-10 a good analog. We may blast the Pacific Jet this year though.
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    We'll have a -NAO, but we haven't been below average in -NAO in like 20 straight time.
  14. StormchaserChuck!
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    1995 is the only other recent year that had warm subsurface+anomalies, while Nina at the surface. All of my analog methods said -PNA, but we'll see, they were just roll forward. +EPO pattern 19-20 and 18-19 analogs is strong imo. Good example of opposite example https://ibb.co/d2JGy2n
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    It's a good -NAO, but we are going to need more than this for a good Winter. How did we do recently, get some good snowstorms in the last 10 years? https://ibb.co/6Ht8C2g
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    Kind of a weak-NAO to be honest.. something like 20 straight -NAO's have been with -PNA or +EPO
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    I'm starting to feel like we are due for a little bit of a wetter pattern.
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    Now in the ENSO subsurface we have all warm anomalies. I'd love to see if there are examples of an ENSO state that had an opposite anomaly dominant in the central subsurface during November... 1988 is the only example I can think of (opposite). We all know 88-89 was a really Strong Nina. and there was actually high pressure from Japan to SE US all through Winter 87-88. Skewed averages puts subsurface warmth at probably ~0.0 now though.
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    +PNA now evolves to +EPO then -PNA, it was what, 74 yesterday?
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    In the subsurface, the La Nina is about dead. It's mostly warm.
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    Most important is PNA/EPO over NAO/AO. I can feel WPO> NAO/AO too
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    Cold water all but gone from the subsurface, as per the TAO/Triton maps
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    Still like ~Dec 5th for a storm.
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    the subsurface will start cooling in 2 weeks. https://ibb.co/233ND55
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