StormchaserChuck!
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Posts posted by StormchaserChuck!
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0c subsurface touching 150W.. not going to redevelop into Weak Nina territory in the subsurface, surface will probably go positive in March or April.
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6z GFS ensembles are really strong with +EPO.. step outside now it's 60. This will be the pattern for the next 2 weeks.
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9 minutes ago, blueberryfaygo said:
Why?
-PNA/+NAO. I watch for 15 years that the indexes in the medium range preceded local trends.
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Expect the warmer solutions to win out from now until Christmas.
The good news is we are kind of doing a February pattern now, so February may be more +PNA.
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Remember I did that winter research that said we would have more +anomalies overall this Winter
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Nothing has outdone GFS ensembles or Euro from 2013. Those Euro weeklies have to have some other purpose. I like the warmth in northern Europe/Russia at Day 14-15, but it's starting to evolve wrong the last 1-2 runs. Sometimes lately the Northern Europe warmth has been +time correlated with SE ridge, instead of -NAO.That's why I ask if there's a 10mb warming signature with it (probably not, also the last 21 -NAO's have been -PNA or +EPO).
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Yeah, this -PNA/+NAO coming in is really strong. Probably sustained 70s. Too bad all the leaves fell off the trees in the last 1-2 weeks.
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Expect the models to trend warmer regarding winter wx threat. I've never seen such a -PNA/+NAO produce something good. I say max high gets to 72. Sorry for being repetative. It does look at 500mb Day 13-15 a 10mb Stratosphere warming wants to develop, which would agree with my -NAO January analogs. Also, if January is to get cold it would usualy be cold around Christmas.
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Pretty sure we'll bein the 50s/60s consistently.
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These strong -PNA's/+NAO overperform, we will be in the 60s consistently easy. Maybe 70+
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let's see
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18z GFS ensembles hit +480dm average
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I know it's a La Nina pattern and La Nina STJ, but the subsurface is not cold..
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Sure, thanks. Do I get more attachment space? (I think I forgot my password once). I kind of use this as a research forum, so all of the previous attachments have some research value, I think. (If I dont get to merge attachement space, I would rather switch over accounts.)
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On 11/26/2021 at 11:36 AM, StormchaserChuck! said:
It does look like on the 6z GFS ensembles at 384, we are getting ready for -NAO, and maybe -EPO, cold blast.
Maybe we'll get something around Christmas (refering to 12z GFS LR..
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Since I posted this, WxUSAF has deleted 24 posts in the Mid-Atlantic forum. only 1/25 survived, that PSUhoffman quoted.
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Also that -PNA reloads to +360dm 3 times (maybe even 4 at 336hr). I'm not sure that's something that usually switches direction in the rest of the Winter.
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Through Dec 12th, perfect opposite correlation continues. 8a — ImgBB (ibb.co) (We have a strong -PNA/+NAO pattern coming up)
August-Dec12th, last year and this have such a high negative correlation, it's greater than any 2 5month consecutive periods since 1948. #1 as an opposite match since 1948, 2020 - 2021. I wonder if this will continue into the Winter...
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The good news is we continue running opposite of last year, all the time since August,-perfect opposite. Dec 2-12 -PNA/+NAO heavy on models:
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I bet this East Coast trough doesn't verify
Adjust your forecasts accordingly.
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We'll be over/under +0.3c in Nino 3 in April
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If November was -6 in the SW, I'd be getting ready for a big Winter here in the NE.
December 2021
in New York City Metro
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Good post.. I wonder if any other place has gone 85 years, then blown past it like this. I remember you posted about AK record Summer warmth by 2 degrees, and PHX the next year record warmth by 2 whole degrees.