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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    The beginning of the end. We have a 70% probability for -PNA next January and February, but 23-24 is going to be -QBO again so if we have El Nino..!
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    N. Atlantic SST NAO index which has been 11-1-4 since inception, was -0.25 for DJFM, +0.54SD50%, so NAO might not get that positive. We are also, though, flipping last year---
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    Not liking this 384hr GFS Looks like composite of top 20 years where PNA dominated Dec 1 - Jan 3 rolled forward I have a slight +PNA signal ~Jan 15th>, but February might turn out warmer, especially if that verifies
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    -EPO can be +8 in the upper levels, and below freezing at the surface. It's a below average temp pattern. -EPO with -NAO, which it should be, gives us snow, but the clouds are thin and it melts quickly. Both 2010 and 1950 had big -EPO's for a few days while transitioning away from -PNA. see how warm it is The 2 biggest -PNA's on record, in transition, both produced big -EPO's, 2/2
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    0z GFS ensemble mean had +400dm -PNA, 6z has -EPO. It will be -EPO with Low underneath +PNA. We'll be cold as long as the NAO stays negative
  6. StormchaserChuck!
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    Super warm ENSO subsurface water in the west, if it moves east.. 1988 is the only example, Stronger El Nino with negative subsurface waters (opposite correlation) I think subsurface dominates lately.
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    Jan 1981 was the biggest +PNA on record for DJFM(CPC)
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    I wonder if it's correlated with western ENSO subsurface breaking +6c on CPC maps (today)
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    Bengals have always played the Ravens good.
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    I like this one
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    +4 now in the western subsurface.. recent analogs 2000,2008,2009,-2010,2011,2012 Next Winter 3 La Nina - 1 Neutral - 1 El Nino for +4> western subsurface wave/cold east since 2000
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    + to -
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    tied for this year for #1 strongest PNA Strong La Nina satellite era
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    Look at this -PNA and how it evolved
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    Might even drop into the PNA
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    He was QB for Buccaneers for a few years.
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    What does this get up to, +650? (Pacific ridge) This is new
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    We'll probably have a SE ridge in February. La Nina you will think is breaking because of January, but it will come back in February, the roll forward -PNA Dec is over/under +100dm -PNA for February, which I would take under, but NAO will likely even out the SE ridge difference.
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    El Nino states seem to be more about the globe warming
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    Reminds me alot of the last few Winters. It will probably be warmer than average March, April, May. -PNA
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    Well leave them outside today, it feels like April. We will probably get a few good snows in January.
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah guys GOA Low will dig more than current models I think. (maybe a little bit weaker) -NAO persisting, that is the key. Stronger -NAO will be a good snowstorm. Stronger GOA low would be a major snowstorm, but that will dampen I think.
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    Beautiful day, feels like March or April. I wonder if we'll have an early Spring this year, probably -PNA.
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    We're pretty close to a major storm here
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