StormchaserChuck!

I made a point about this similarities in this pattern, and 10 days before Jan 25, 2000

It will probably shift west, but not as cold

We are coming out of -NAO-storm ^ It was a pretty good -NAO, with 3 cold-waves.

fwiw, 10 days before Jan 25,2000

We are coming out of a similar pattern, with NAO

Coming out of deep -NAOstorm.., Trend has been for NAO to become more negative in shorter term, -NAO has also however weighted by bad Pacific so..

I can see it trending west, but not as cold as 2000.

Wonder if we can get a slight shift north, I've seen in the past the GFS has this SE bias, but it's also a warmer pattern. thread the needle. Love the GOA low

blah

this (notice GFS ensembles are much different from OP)

then this

I do think there is a tendency for LR models to overdo -PNA/bias+PNA-closer term after Jan 15. It may even be a neutral/+PDO Pacific (pattern) until sometime in February. Will be interesting to see if the NAO evens it, it's the wild card for Jan 15-31, +NAO signal Feb 7-9, so we might carry right through now to that.. 

This is the important zone

Yeah, the cutoff wave might just weaken/default back to -PNA

It's really hard to keep the NAO + this Winter

(97-98, 01-02, 96-97) had -NAO before ~Jan 15th, so you don't have to worry about being shut out so much if the -NAO is persistent after Jan 15th. 

La Nina version of 2015 [(U.S.)]

Watch this one.. 2nd year Nina

Still say watch 1-08.. no negative anomalies in the arctic

I'm suspicious of the ridge/trough N America. maybe refer to this

NAO trough also seems foreign to the NAO, it probably goes south of a -AO (Arctic circle)

Wondering how warm it will get ahead of front

I hate the ECMWF ensembles. 

maybe watch this one

It might actually cool down for a while. Don't expect it to be cold next January though.. 

Cold probably comes after this. Or after the one after this. 

It seems those 384hr storms disappeared about 5 years ago..

Beautiful day.. feels like 60. 

Look at Canada

too bad.. coming out of a -NAO no less

Imo land vs water right now is why we won't see snow for a little while 

11 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

That's a better look for us than what we have now. The negative NAO RNA combo has been shredding everything.

+PNA/-NAO or -EPO/+NAO does best for snow. 

^looks suspicious. I doubt the +NAO-region holds. 

EPO

NAO

I had a cold January.. solar ascending underperforming is 3:2 La Nina vs historical

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-2.5       -3.0       -3.5       -2.5      -1.0     0        -0.5      2.5     2.0