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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    I made a point about this similarities in this pattern, and 10 days before Jan 25, 2000 It will probably shift west, but not as cold We are coming out of -NAO-storm ^ It was a pretty good -NAO, with 3 cold-waves.
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    fwiw, 10 days before Jan 25,2000 We are coming out of a similar pattern, with NAO Coming out of deep -NAOstorm.., Trend has been for NAO to become more negative in shorter term, -NAO has also however weighted by bad Pacific so.. I can see it trending west, but not as cold as 2000.
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    Wonder if we can get a slight shift north, I've seen in the past the GFS has this SE bias, but it's also a warmer pattern. thread the needle. Love the GOA low
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    blah this (notice GFS ensembles are much different from OP) then this I do think there is a tendency for LR models to overdo -PNA/bias+PNA-closer term after Jan 15. It may even be a neutral/+PDO Pacific (pattern) until sometime in February. Will be interesting to see if the NAO evens it, it's the wild card for Jan 15-31, +NAO signal Feb 7-9, so we might carry right through now to that..
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    This is the important zone
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, the cutoff wave might just weaken/default back to -PNA
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    It's really hard to keep the NAO + this Winter (97-98, 01-02, 96-97) had -NAO before ~Jan 15th, so you don't have to worry about being shut out so much if the -NAO is persistent after Jan 15th.
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    La Nina version of 2015 [(U.S.)] Watch this one.. 2nd year Nina
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    Still say watch 1-08.. no negative anomalies in the arctic
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    I'm suspicious of the ridge/trough N America. maybe refer to this NAO trough also seems foreign to the NAO, it probably goes south of a -AO (Arctic circle)
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    Wondering how warm it will get ahead of front
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    I hate the ECMWF ensembles.
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    maybe watch this one
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    It might actually cool down for a while. Don't expect it to be cold next January though.. Cold probably comes after this. Or after the one after this.
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    It seems those 384hr storms disappeared about 5 years ago..
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    Beautiful day.. feels like 60.
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    Look at Canada
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    too bad.. coming out of a -NAO no less
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    Imo land vs water right now is why we won't see snow for a little while
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    +PNA/-NAO or -EPO/+NAO does best for snow.
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    ^looks suspicious. I doubt the +NAO-region holds.
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    EPO
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    NAO
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    I had a cold January.. solar ascending underperforming is 3:2 La Nina vs historical
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -2.5 -3.0 -3.5 -2.5 -1.0 0 -0.5 2.5 2.0
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