StormchaserChuck!

I've been watching them, and it happens as it snows. They have 100% of the time been in the general range. Sometimes you cant tell from QPF if it's 5-10" or 1-3".. it's good

It actually misses north.. these maps are rarely wrong.

I like the threat, the NAO is not going more positive in trend. 

-NAO definitely the dominant pattern this Winter. 

+PDO pattern (-EPO or +PNA) holds now through Day 15-16, on GFS ensembles. Will probably go back to -PNA for February. 

10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Congrats on the storm, i guess the JuJu worked! We're up here getting cucked in New England, but you guys enjoy, you definitely deserve it

If it's that far NW, there's going to be a 12-14" jackpot. 

12z They had +NAO peaking at the same time +PNA peaking in a 6-hour frame, Day 9 on the model. 

Still a south model bias, it's in the 50's, too warm for Richmond to get 10"+

Big -EPO at the end of the 12z GFS ensembles run. I had a -NAO analog signal for January, so it might go more -AO/northern Greenland+ridging in medium/long term trend. Watch Jan 15-25 to maybe be cold. 

4 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

You are the PNA man.  Great calls on it

Yeah, I would probably live in Hawaii

Big +PNA dropping in GFSensembles hr156. Do you know that in the satelite era (since 1948) all major anomalious blocks, have turned to negative anomaly after? 

1980 was the biggest +PNA on record, +2.42... we actually have a -PDO (GOA low, ridge west) for this one. 

January will borderline storms, as the N. Hemisphere continues to revolve around the East Coast. 

This right here continues to show GFS SE bias

Again, Richmond sees big snowstorms in late Nov-Dec. This has the feel of trending north. 

I think it will come NW still, but how much is dampened by the NAM. slight adjustment NW to verification. Maybe 1-3", 2-4"

Pretty good +PNA incoming.. probably turn my ^zone to  +  

Good call by on +PNA during a La Nina January. 

~1-9-2023 we'll go into -PNA

I doubt there are 3 posts here in the last hour. 

5/9 Richmond's biggest storms were in December.. 4/9 all other months. 

If your stuck in this no weather discussion, sorry...

3" qpf, a miracle would do it

We need the GOA Low to trend more SW/dig more. I've seen it, actually this is a common model trend for the same timeframe as we get closer(1st low breaking in a pattern). The problem is, I think we can reestablish -PNA a bit (red circle). GOA Low stays strong and digs more, we have a snowstorm. 1:10 odds I'd say, full phase 1:50. 

(I have a feeling not everyone is reading my posts)

More neg tilt this run!

Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

Did Chuck just say we have a blizzard coming on Monday?

It's definitely going to trend NW, at least at 18z and 6z. might lose some STJ moisture though as NAO trends more - and PNA (north of Hawaii ridge) more -. GOA lows are like real movements in same time model trends, final 72hrs goes more SW/undercut. I'd say like 4-8" I-95 or NW of I-95, maybe 10". worst case scenario it's a really wet snow event(loss of STJ moisture is what I'm most worried about in trend), but SLP will come a little NW

This is a pretty good +PNA, but do you see my point about the NAO, we directly correlate right to positive. 

If we can trend less +NAO or more -AO, this is a good snow chance.