StormchaserChuck!

Analog to last years Kelvin wave 

The whole Pacific is lifting north into the Artic circle.. this did a +PDO thing, which was interesting because an El Nino didnt develop, it turned back to la nina. 

Let's see if we have a similar pattern for the next 40 days. 

0z NAM 

Biggest January snowstorms I could find, surprisingly all +6-8 days from our event.

Take out the Strong El Nino and it looks like this

-AO or west-based -NAO seems to be the core feature. ^-NAO SLP is strong in 6 analogs. Ridge over the northern landmass, that's all

GFS is too far NW. -NAO since theyear2000 sticks low pressure's to the coast, it will trend SE. 

-NAO,-NAO,

Really looks good guys

^18-24" Westminster, MD

This is what I like, personally. If not this February, next February.

Believe it or not, but if we go +PNA this February, we will be more likely to have La Nina conditions next Winter or -AAM(+NAO), but a -PNA February would be in line with movement toward +ENSO conditions, and there would be a significant warming of Nino3.4 February or March. 

Dec-Jan roll forward (only +analogs)

Not sure I agree with switch to El Nino conditions for the Summer, but here are the analogs (cold-+PNA January)

*Notice how the -PNA relocates back in Feb-March despite ENSO changing. 

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

JMA FTMFW

Makes the most sense, it always boomerangs toward the JMA then away from it though. 

I don't like the ridge over the SW today and tomorrow. 

There's nothing to drive it north inland, it will redevelop off the coast pretty far south

It's not a very cold storm though, but likely snow NW I-95. 

-NAO, Pacific is favorable.. This H5 is not an inland runner. Pacific ridge is peaking north.. the Low in Canada may even phase more. 108 is big adjustments still. 

-NAO storms gravitate toward the coast. 

114-120 is a long time.. it will trend east. I've seen it since the year 2000, -NAO or any High pressure over Greenland puts these low pressures on the coastline like gravity. 

Some of these solutions are really wet, and we still have time to trend for a perfect scenario. It's going to be hard to rain I-95 and NW with -NAO. Storms for the last 10-20 years have been maxing NW of I-95, I wouldn't expect an Apps track. 

It's hard to imagine that we'll get rain when there's a 2SD -NAO. Pacific isn't that bad either. 

ENSO subsurface should peak +warming in about 7 days, then I worry about -PNA trend. We might clear January though.

I like this threat

How did you guys do with 582dm off the West coast in 2014,2015?

NAO is negative

looks better than 18z

looks good to me.. 12-15" and the GFS has a dry bias. 

Love the NAM at 84hrs

38 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it happened in 2015-16, 1993-94 and 1984-85 with positive NAO too.

 

Maybe watch Feb7-9 to be cold (+NAO)

See how are we are doing all this with NAO +.. probably most +NAO day of the Winter today/tonight

Models go out 15day, but watch for extension of +PNA pattern, +16-20 days 

Then on 2-1, it switched

^-PNA signal

vBack to +PNA 

Might break the +PNA after 2-21/22-2022 though. 

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Unsure if anyone posted but CPC has some interesting possibilities for 19th-22nd including a chance of heavy snow basically Chicago to New Haven northward and a high prob of very cold air invading the upper Midwest. 

I like this for our biggest snow of the year, then it will warm up -PNA, but may be -NAO too into Feb-March-April. I really like -PNA March. 

STJ moisture hits Jan 22-24

near Mexico here v

Im not really sure why we have a ridge in central Canada though

Been cold so far

I want us to just melt to get to some normal climate conditions. we've been in this computer matrix for a while. Let it melt. alot. take the satelites down, etc. dont start controlling your own place.. lol. Stop the freeze-melt by melting completely.