StormchaserChuck!

Going to be hard to change over I-95/NW for heaviest precip

14z

STJ still juicy at 336

NAM is still warm but,

13F at 9:06am 

This is just awesome

^notice ensembles vs op

Bring on the Winter Storm Warnings Baltimore north!

2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

That jump from 5-7-9-11 stands out

2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

NOTHING supports this. 

9 degrees at my home in Fallston... wondering if we can get 10" there

Should be WSW's here, 12 degrees. Expecting 5"+ in Bel Air. 

21 degrees here.. never got above 22 today. It's going to be all snow/sleet in Bel Air. maybe drizzle when the low passes north. Kind of excited, convective storm. 980smb low passing overhead. 

30 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

That’s the fun part about this.  You never know what will happen until it happens.

I could see a quick 4-5" here in Bel Air, 5-6" NW. 

Well, it's 17 degrees outside. 12z NAM really wants to gravitate toward the coastline. will be a fun storm to nowcast. I think we can get 3-4 hours of really heavy snow. 

14 minutes ago, Round Hill WX said:

I know it’s January and this is the 850 anomaly, but it pretty much tells the story. 
 

decent match

GFS almost goes into the GOM too. I wonder how many times models have had a 1044mb high pressure over the Great Lakes today/tomorrow (before a storm). I remember not many situations in the 2000s. Not saying a big shift will occur, but it could be a variable. 

Still 58hrs away, a slight shift SE could still be in the cards. 

Yeah, the 18z NAM is in the GOM. It does have a NW bias. Pretty far in the gulf, a slight shift could make a big difference. 

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

+PNA?

Going to be really hard to sustain in a Nina.. I'd expect a dance around ECsnowstorm chances and PNA. 

Maybe something here

4 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

CPC earlier this morning was talking about the spread among the ensembles with respect to the AO (in particular) at 2 weeks. Pretty good polarity with some of the members, indicative of some key players that need to be resolved over the next week. 

There have, in the last few days been some ensemble members with ridiculous +550-600dm (3-4SD's -AO's and -NAO's.)

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

imagine if we had the STJ we had in 2003

we get better each year

-NAO, -EPO

I don't know guys, this is some heavy precip as snow. I think it will overperform.

look at New Foundland all rain. It's been raining up to Alaska too

Might be wetter, fast mover though

Look how far north, big storm

stronger 50/50 

Big changes at 36