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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    Forecast is low 60s for highs next Thurs-Fri and the weekend, I say we hit at least 70.
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    This is one heck of a +EPO coming up for late week/weekend.. you know I love +EPO's. temps to overperform warmer.
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    18-19 was similar to this Fall. I'd take the opposite of this, despite La Nina. at least Dec. Jan and Feb could match forecast.
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    watch out for this over the NW
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    10-15 is a good analog.
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    If we have -NAO, it will be -PNA +NAO is +PNA/-EPO
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, I've been serious the whole time.
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    This one was warmer though.
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    Never done a 4th year La Nina. 3rd year Nina's are colder and snowier, for uncoincidental reasons.
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    We ware shifting pattern in the Southern Hemisphere too to colder.
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    Actually, this kind of -NAO in October heavily correlates with a +NAO Winter. a few things remind me of 2018.
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    Believe it or not, after +PNA Dec, we have more of a High pressure correlation in the north Pacific ocean for Jan and Feb
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    I hate that Hadley Cell expansion as a long term pattern.
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, I noticed that too. In like 2 years or something, the best moon the last few days.
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    La Nina redeveloping in subsurface
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    Had frost yesterday on the roofs and cars. It was pretty.
  17. StormchaserChuck!
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    Thank you. I would be interested to see if a La Nina/+QBO doesn't strengthen the 10mb vortex, giving higher chances of +NAO. The last 3 La Nina/+QBO's have been -NAO's so there might be a "put" in the mix.
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    Pretty nice -PNA/+NAO developing here on models, could warm up a bit more than forecasted.
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    NAO has been inversely correlating with the Pacific, at like -0.70 (highest on record), so this increases the chances for +PNA -EPO this Winter. .In "0 time" 3 good posts
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    Nailed it last year.. 12-4 since inception in 2005. [0.54 SD of DJFM NAO (0.00 is -0.54 to +0.54, 50% chance)] 12-4 is the base state verification, which is + this year. NAO forecast is about +0.40 here, -0.14 to +0.94 50% chance DJFM.
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    A mix of 00-01, 99-00 could be a good match, what do you think? This is the last "La Nina "cold phase"", as the 2nd half of that Super Nino was very cold. I think the story will be, +PNA Dec, -PNA Jan, -PNA Feb. We were also coming up on a Solar Max, which we are in between this and low the solar la nina 07-08, 08-09, "solar ascending moderate now" (there's your fix)not sure it has much relevance.. but we are right in between 99/00-00/01 and 07/08-08/09 for enso and solar
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    Actually, there's 2 rounds of +PNA coming up in the LR, which being in mid-October, bodes well for the Winter. Unless we revert back to pattern of last 7-10 years. I keep getting 00-01 feelings when thinking about the Winter, and believe it or not the last time it was below average in Late Sept/early-mid October was 2003,2001,2000 *2000 was La Nina
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    STJ has been very dry though, stronger La Nina-like. I've noticed this (precip) has stayed consistent with surface ENSO obs
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    subsurface is actually net + , I found a 0.90 vs 0.75 correlation subsurface vs Nino 3.4/MEI 0.80. December will be +PNA, so expect further subsurface warming.
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