StormchaserChuck!

12z GFS ensembles

More recent extreme's in 2nd half of Winter -PNA's

Are we due for a 2018-like -PNA?
 

Maybe a -NAO?

588dm on models a few days from now, I can't find any examples close, but since 2013 we have danced + and - to the pattern. 

+matches

-matches

Summer +matches

-match's

588dm now off the West coast, largest of all model runs so far. 

We are beating 2015's recent record

acclimate

5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

So, a KU event the first week of February as the pattern flips.  Got it. 

this is a pretty strong -NAO, we might have something coming out of it short term. We don't historically get big storms rising out of +PNA to -PNA. >582dm in the N. Atlantic

This is pretty brutal in the Pacific, again the only other time I saw sustained +400dm -PNA as an ensemble mean 12-15 days out was before December. 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html 

Coldest SSTs of this years La Nina in Nino 3 now

Winter may be over guys. Look at this trending

When the +PNA breaks, it might get very warm.

whatever.. I dont know what I'm talking about

4 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Maybe Pacific beachfront property is the way to go for you so you can monitor it up close and personal.

rain all the way up to land at the coldest time of the year.. we started it in 2014/2015 then there was a Strong El Nino in 2015-16, followed by 6 years of strongest -PNA on record -300 vs -220 #2. This is maybe round 2. when the rain hits land the biggest part of the trenddifference is done. 

lOOK At the Pacific though

Sorry guys, but warmer Winter's are coming

Pretty good evidence that a ridge in the SW-US/West coast/western rim to Alaska, leads warmer weather here +time. 

2015.. I think this is where we are heading for February (La Nina pattern)

-AAM[La Nina] is +N Pacific/-N Atlantic

Same thing in Feb 2015

Look at the -AAM! (Pacific +, N Atlantic -) , La Nina signal/pattern, that followed

Focusing on 582dm West coast ridge, we did a similar pattern in 2014. 

It really went -AAM (La Nina) for February

Focusing on 582dm West coast ridge, we did a similar pattern in 2014. 

It really went -AAM for February

Snow isn't very correlated to ENSO. Although in the early 1900s Strong El Nino's were cold. 

Ooo I like this, do these setups ever work out?

These things trend SW (northern energy), so it might even be the later piece that hits 

8 days of +PNA then it switches.. 

We're pretty close here to the 13-year average

March.. SW-US High and -PNA are both sticking, probably ENSO related. 

Actual low is off of Ocean City

We had such a strong wrap around, the front end got very warm. 

AO is positive but whew, I think these other storms are coming north.