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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    It's going to be hard for it to snow.. but it's possible.
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    A rapidly deteriorating event at the surface for February looks like this.. to be continued.. I think 4/6 analog composite researches I have done have given us a strong el nino for later in the year, but I intuitively feel that this will not be the case, but these multi-year analog composites of +1.5 and +2.0c+ are impressive.
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    here you go Strong -AAM signal for mid-February.. could crush the Kelvin wave a little bit.
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    too bad.. we are doing the opposite of this as much as we can this year. La Nina's are a little dry though. opposite of Strong La Nina's (alone)v
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    6 straight years of this Central America cold-pattern Feb 4-8 (see 2nd model image above) I used that 6-year consistency to say we would have a -NAO Christmas this year back in November 8 days later -AAM peaks, La Nina condition-pattern, (-AAM is -NAtlantic, +NPacific) +8 days is Feb 12-16, 2022 These AAM's spin and stuff to effect the pattern for a long time, this is last week of February ^+10days, Feb 22-26
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    This is a massive -PNA. We'll be in the 50s higher every day after this storm threat. I really like the 10-11 analog, although the NAO wasn't as negative. NAO really switched in early Feb, should be interesting (I have +NAO signal Feb 7-9 core/max, but we have been veering -NAO for little reason 5/7 months. anyway.. we saw this in March/April, we'll see 2011 was dry 2-year pattern analogs are working Feb 7, 2022, +15day model Record +350dm Pacific High in December > 20% #1
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    ^ NAO has been negative alot of the time too. No +EPO's either.
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    Well, we constantly have a west-N. Pacific trough through 15-day models for several runs now. You can even call it a +PNA, because I thought some of our best patterns like 76-77 and 77-78 had this west-based N. Pacific trough. We need to break this +PNA/+NAO, -NAO/-PNA though, otherwise it wont really snow. I did research that showed after record -PDO's, (Oct-Nov-Dec was the #1 lowest -PDO on record) we actually rebounded with +PNA/GOA or Alaska high for next 2 years. The extreme PNA/PDO events seem to always even/reverse to balance. I don't think that changes our SE ridge state though, which could be present through Winter 22-23 too.
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    I think this Kelvin wave is a headfake We'll keep doing this +/- thing for the next 1 year, I guess. I don't even know who sees this when. People play up the "help situation" until it becomes too ridiculous, all judgement- how good you are doing and stuff.
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    -PNA/+AO, just what I like for a snowstorm(not). You are riding the N. Atlantic ridge which has correlated 21 straight times to -PNA or +EPO (neutralized), and the AO is positive anyway. rainstorm.
  11. StormchaserChuck!
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    This isn't South Carolina. I average 32" of snow per year, and the coldest day is Jan 27th.
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    1% - 5% chance of a snowstorm, realistically. give me my $$$.
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    Highest odds is probably for a rainstorm.
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    unless it trends toward a different H5 pattern, there will be no snowstorm, not even close
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    It's like those La Nina Winter's of the 1960s, Pacific ridge cold-dry. US-Europe won after, micro-macro.
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    Geopotential height min. I found 477dm is the lowest recorded in the US https://stormtrack.org/community/threads/lowest-500-mb-height-in-history.8225/
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    This might pick up.. 474 still. It will pick up if it holds/trends colder though
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    474.. -NAO I've seen it get into the 460s before
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat following 3 most neg Oct-Dec -PDO's it switches in the Pacific and Atlantic (+PDOpattern 2 years later while holding -PDO SSTs)
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    All1960s,70s El Nino's 1.0 ONI>, 4 events We followed some pretty severe -PDO in the 1950s, followed by a positive blip ~1960, just like the 2000s have progressed I don't think we'll get out of -PNA for the Winter, even if its El Nino next year. Strong Nino of 72-73
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    In the global warming cycle, new high anomaly in -PNA starts cold here, and takes years to acclimate (warm), so expect the NAO to keep going negative with -PNA, -PNA/-NAO (+PNA/+NAO) correlated through February.
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    Big -EPO and -NAO, too. I had a reverse-negPNA signal through February anyway, so this fits. Should stay borderline cold/snow if 12z/18z GFS ensembles verify.
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    yikes
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    warm ENSO lately hasn't been able to conquer this N. Pacific -PNA 18-19 El Nino +0.7 19-20 +Neutral +0.5 ONI Last 2 +ENSO Jan-Mar vs last 2 La Nina's (+ENSO minus Nina)
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