StormchaserChuck!

(2008 qualifies, kind of a different pattern 2008 to 2009 though)

+NPH, +NOI Feb 1-19, really strong signal now. Similar to Strong El Nino's... reverses in March

recent

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Don’t forget -PNA

Again, unscientific but the reverse December-PNA and last February-PNA is pretty strong. In satellite era, extremes even out. 

A little unscientific, but we have been reversing last year nicely, Watch for this time to possible trend warmer (+EPO)

Let's see what happens here

The problem is this +EPO/+NAO.. you know I think this has significant meaning, and it will always trend warmer closer. 

It may be hard to pattern change back, we go pretty hard +PDO pattern (+PNA/-EPO) but WATCH FOR THE NAO TO EVEN IT OUT. keeping us on the borderline or above through...little chance of snowstorm. 

More long range research.. +NPH is a ENSO pattern, +NOI, Feb 1-17

Mar

Apr

Jun

Jul

+NPH, Feb 1-17, La Nina NE Pacific pattern, +NOI, since 1948 + and - analogs(20). 

GOA High, La Nina pattern, +NPH, Feb 1-15

^recent

vsince 2000

1998-counter, all analogs for March. Same pattern. 

Now vs 384hr

hmm

artificial

Even 13-14 and 14-15 were La Nina's really, we are lagging in Arctic ice melt I think

Global warming cycle.. year 5

This is a La Nina hold

-perception that we will be switching phases in the Summer, but I don't think so

February's have been wetter than normal but we in a La Nina, and models are dry. If it precip's, I expect snow north of 40N, not that pattern though. 

I expect continued cold, as -EPO is a colder than forecasted pattern. 

^stupid person

N. Pacific pattern is wobbling more than normal. Usually a +400dm -PNA on LR models doesn't vary a lot, become weaker or stronger, but we went all the way to West coast-ridge/Aleutian trough +PNA in 1 model run. We are going back and forth between balancing December, and consistently having -PNA N. Pacific High. 

I think we are generally ridging north in the water. -NAO seems to have the most potential for +900dm general anomaly because W->E/

looking forward to Oct1 - Feb16 2023

we're trying

Actually, it's taking up all the water-area of the Gulf of Alaska. 

Nice +AMO

https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5km/index_5km_ssta.php

There goes the Kelvin wave..