StormchaserChuck!

Yeah, the shark is getting speared. Ascending Solar Min, underperforming is hard to El Nino, 09-10 is a counter-example. 

Nasty Pacific ridge with +NAO, model shows 2-3 SD below average temps, but it's not going to snow at all. 

I keep saying it, we need a 2-3 year El Nino to even out. A strong El Nino, would in the 500mb pattern, be like 72-73 next Winter, alone. +2.8c-+3.0c> would be the only way we do that +PNA/GOA low like 97-98,etc.

+NAO is a strong pattern, lows rotate around it on the ensembles, this is a wetter than average pattern. 

Yeah, this persistent +PNA Is really a force here. Notice how the +NAO maxes at 2SDs though. Then we have a window before next January-Feb23 is -PNA. 

oh no!

Permafrost? Let's take down the satellites that look like stars. Broken me llamo. Scientific dimensions? It's all dream-like ontop of a reality. 

Extreme pattern here

This is starting to show up the last 2 runs, -PNA-centered which we haven't had since December.

medium range storm threat looks like the end of a La Nina Winter.. looks the same as 16-17, 17-18, 18-19, 19-20.. 20-21

Not really going to verify at 384hr either(-PNA)

We'll do at best Moderate El Nino. I don't even know if it will be El Nino at all because of rising/ascending solar phase underperforming historically favors La Nina. April-May may see a blip in Nino 3,3.4 to +0.3/+0.4 something like that. If there is an El Nino wave it will happen in August..  09-10 might be a good analog for next Winter, although it was an awkward Winter. 

Well, there goes Strong El Nino chances for this year. 

Same rebuilding/cooling of the central subsurface

3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

There won’t be any 60’s with that look. Still waiting on the -PNA you promised us about 3 weeks ago too.

-PNA might not build as strong, but I'm excited for a good, healthy +NAO.. can't see it happening now with +PNA after 2 straight. maybe the whole modeled pattern will be wrong, or main indexes change. 

3 hours ago, Amped said:

That's the same as it's looked since early January

Yeah, we had some good -NAOs build early in the season but it didn't last. I was noticing how 22 straight -NAO's, the mean for them was a + departure anyway. 

Expect this -PNA ridge to withdraw a little bit in future model runs

34 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

You cancelled cold temps on 1/3.  Looked what followed.

We haven't had a +NAO in a while.. it might overperform

No chance of snow until March 1 probably.. 2SD +NAO here

Not really any chance for anything for a while here. 

This is really bad.

+NAO/+EPO moving in tomorrow overperforms, then we flirt with 60s down the road it looks like. 

-PNA crreeps upward next Winter

same stuff

-NAO

Powerful +NAO here.. Im interested in seeing where we go after this. 

+AO

This will be it for La Nina for a little while

I'll make a deak with you , no more Euro eps

We are kind of a dry pattern, because there is big +NPH/NOI to be evened out in March by -NOI.. keeps us dry.