StormchaserChuck!

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Mt Baker I think? I have it programmed into YoWindow.  I tried to find every four letter airport code that averages over 200 inches of snow a year and all locations that have experienced temperatures of 125 and hotter and temperatures of -90 and colder (and -120 and colder for Antarctica.)  Those are the two things I love-- snowiest places and most extreme temperature records.

 

 

A few years ago, it was breaking 127/128F in Death Valley for 4 days in a row in early June. All-time record is 134. With SW High getting stronger, something to watch out for. 

The La Nina-state is not breaking here. 

Subsurface:

-PDO

Even when the NW Pacific ridge breaks, it's -PDO. 

Now we have an El Nino pattern setting up

Kawaii, Hawaii, 11 miles into a barefoot trail(only way to get to center of island)

I bet some of the top La Nina analogs have this pattern 4/15-16 (-PNA)

It's snowed up here something like 13/20 times in early April since I moved here. 

Healthy

Really impressive for going-into-El Nino-analog indicators.. 4-15

El Nino pattern broke on today's 0z, 6z models, we are in -PNA/-PDO I think until ENSO switches again(next year)

+PNA/El Nino-transition really phased out today on models., -PDO-pattern for next 15 days. I think this will hold through the Winter, El Nino or not, and it could be something like 72-73. -PNA tendency, especially next Jan-Feb

DCA +2.5 NYC +2 BOS +1.5 ORD -3 ATL +3 IAH +3 DEN +2.5 PHX +3.5 SEA +0.0

Continue to think next Jan-Feb have -PNA tendency.. if we do that in a +/- wave with El Nino, I don't know, probably not. 

Seems like a Spring pattern to me.. we have that +300dm centered over Alert, Canada, and it's 60 degrees. Confirms my W->E > theory I think. 

Do you notice how the PNA/EPO and NAO are always dancing? 

1) I see Winter pretty much over

2) the +PNA this Jan and Feb might give us a -PNA next Jan and Feb, but with -NAO or AO maybe

Magic gravity of the 500mb High to that Alert Canada region (our highest snowfall correlation)

On 2/18/2022 at 12:18 AM, LibertyBell said:

how do you stop a multiyear la nina? talking about realistic climate modification to regulate climate patterns.

 

We've basically been in a multi-year La Nina since 2007-8. I don't know, stop effecting. 

Usually you don't get new ENSO state (warm subsurface-now) -change impact the Winter pattern, Dec-Mar. Usually it's first felt in April. I guess 1988 is a counter example where we had more southern stream High pressures. The +PNA is from warm subsurface ENSO (greater 500mb correlation than surface, by alot). 1) The amount of "+PNA cold" we see in the east is capped by this "law". 

I don't think they are beautiful looks, High pressure in the Pacific is the only real thing. 

It takes 10-15 seconds for my message to send through. 

Not going to snow. 

It's silly. I don't have any money, and they are manipulating cycles in the NW. Pacific [3tries]. Stupid, evil. 

52 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Therefore, I do believe that the first couple (or perhaps few?) weeks of March hold elevated potential for a significant late-winter event. Time will tell, but things should start to ramp up once heading into the start of the month.

12 likes? 1 trophy

Just kidding, but we have to break this La Nina pattern. PNA dominates+time, it's like a physics equation. 

25 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Several things I want to point out with this post.  Correct me if I am wrong

1.  When have you not said the pattern is getting worse besides December, its like the boy who cried wolf. By this point I inherently (unless some non constant downers agree) disregard the downer's view on the pattern. 

2. We do need low pressure but not some super intense storm to get some snow. I mean all it takes is a well placed boundary wave to get a decent event

3. Global warming is definitely a bad thing for our hobby but still does not mean we need some crazy setup to get like 6 inches of snow. 

4. Why are you always so negative with tracking and everything? I mean it just seems like the ratio of downer posts to positive ones are like 9:1

At the same time you have knowledge and I value that but why always so negative is my main thing, why do something that you are unhappy with 90 percent of the time?

I just really believe in the PNA, it's really strong signal for the state of Winter. 

A La Nina next Winter would be horrible with +QBO. We could have done well(snow) with El Nino this Winter.