StormchaserChuck!

It's pouring now, gets dark at like 6:30pm today

I think Nino1+2 will go positive by June or July. 

73-74, 74-75, 75-76, Strong on the backend. 74-75 was big +PNA in that 3-year cycle, and 00-01 was big +PNA In that 3-year cycle. 2/2 had a strong +PNA Winter in 1 of the 3 years. 

Today's storm is just EPO, -EPO with a slight trough over water south of it, it's not even NAO.. NAO is + actually with ridge over northern Europe. I keep saying this. We are getting our best winter storms in +NAO. (I think the issue is a normal -NAO goes +600dm-900dm, to extreme for average kind of a thing). Or it could be the 50/50 low theorem, where you have a low pressure parked to the north

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7C for the week centered around April 13th. That is the coldest anomaly for that timeframe since weekly records were kept beginning in 1982. The prior mark was -1.4C in 1994.

I feel like we are going strongly toward El Nino (climo stats), this is a pretty strong opposite push, --/+

On 4/12/2022 at 7:39 AM, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think you’re grasping here

The pattern is so stable., Give it 10 years, or 7to10 years, and I bet any amount of money the eastern 2/3 of US are warmer than average>climotrends, SW->2-3xeast

-NAO Apr28-May 3

*Then, no real analogs until before 2010 

Yeah, that's a pretty good +PNA

On 2/19/2021 at 10:58 AM, StormchaserChuck! said:

Powerful, Nina's going to even out though. 

El Nino push.. +3, probably +4 soon in the western subsurface. Will probably go/turn positive at the surface by late May/June. 

Kind of had a return of the cold snow/blowing snow, it was 13F a few mornings with light snow. C-/D+. 

2 hours ago, Amped said:

They look to be within 500 miles or so with the 850 line, which is about all you can tell from those maps.

Actually, it's snow for northern Va

3 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You promised a -PNA all winter and we had Z near continuous +PNA from Jan 1 through March.

But …. -PNA all the way!!! Next 27 winters!!!

How much snow? I said the Pacific 1/3 would even out +650dm December..no alarms. 2010 did the same thing, for the Winter it was very RNA. 

A few of the GFS ensembles looks close

Nice little -NAO here .. we are going to carry this strong-NAO/-PNA/+EPO Pacific thing into next Winter 

I think it will be a -AO Summer(+500mb). 

On 4/13/2022 at 10:39 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefully we can get a modoki of modest intensity...muster up some blocking and negative PDO is fine with me.

Here you go

*years

It's probably a higher probability for the Winter though. 

It's not going to chagne the 5-year weather

Just now, bluewave said:

Record -PNA trough out West is taking a bunch of trees down in Portland with the historic late season snowfall.

 

 

1948/9-1951, great analog for -PNA evolution right now (ENSO-PNA). Yesterday's 12z GFS had 5-7 straight days of snowfall in Seattle, I checked the forecast though and it was Upper40s/low50s, rain throughout. 

I love it. No Low pressures in the SW on an exponential logarithmic scale, +, 1995 0.20, 2000 0.40, 2010 0.50, 2013 0.65, 2015 0.75, 2017 0.78, 2018 0.80, 2019 0.82, 2021-2, 0.90. Something to watch out for in the next few Winter's. I think it's correlation is strong. 

9 straight Winter's above normal in the SW. 

The Hadley Cell really flexed this Winter, we had a +180dm N. Pacific anomaly, when the average for a Weak-Nina is +60dm+60dm 30% error. I think that general energy potential should extend into the Atlantic Hurricane season, keeping warm SSTs/calmer conditions generally farther north through the season. ENSO state is the wild card. 

vland/ocean

SW, US High pressure/temps severely lead us here, relative to time,(warm 2 months = warm +2-4months later here, 2 years = 3rd year, etc, it's like ~68%/50). This warm SW has established since 2000, but really picked up in the last 1.5 years, dominate High pressure despite -PNA, other drivers. I think we will see a streak of warm Winter's, El Nino is the only thing that can save us. 

I still think we'll see a El Nino/solar action push, but it's relative to a dominant -PDO state. 

SW ridge has been extremely anomalous in the last few years. Biggest consistency in the globe (anomalies) right now.