StormchaserChuck!

^Arctic ice can't help but melting Aug-Sept

re: the thunderstorm threat

It starts in the Pacific...

Pacific High pressure/-PNA/positive anomaly May12-16

Minus 1997

Minus 1982

Minus 2015 (Pac net neg 3/3)

Plus 2021

Minus 2020, 2019, Plus 2016, 2017

23 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z EURO agrees... says upper 50s to maybe low 60s for most next Friday... 55-60 for most next Saturday as well for highs

It won't verify as cold. 

T-storm threat, heavy rain around May12th-13

3 ensembles have a TS at 384

T-storm threat probably extends-May12-16

High-Low pressure-Pacific-Atlantic, 1/4, 1/16, 1/64, 1/256, 1/1,024 .. 1/1024 is random right now. 

artificial cooling of the north pole?

^The next few La Nina's might not act like La Nina's. 

That 170W/-200m is +3c is significant, this El Nino tendency has been around since November. 

This hasn't broke though

El Nino tendency kind of taking over here recently. 

Middle of the month

Enjoy these warmer days, the SW US High pressure is a building-consistent entity/feature these days. 

DCA +2.0 NYC +1.5 BOS +1.5 ORD +3.0 ATL +2.0 IAH +2.0 DEN +2.5 PHX +2.5 SEA +1.5

Problem is actually land vs water, and how its modeled, and how it seperates right now. 

Did I dance in the rain before?

^To reiterate my point further, Dec 2010 (300dm vs #2 230dm -PNA) was followed by 10/11 years of -PNA or +NOI. THIS December beat it by 30dm- 330dm, 300dm, 230dm. I think we will see something like 3/8 next Winter's of +PNA, or even 5/10 +PNA, but there will be 5/8 +super-PNA, weighing us to a +anomaly -PNA vs globe. -PNA/+PNA skew difference, could even, even out over 10-15+ years. 

I bet we get a nice subsurface cold push here

^+4c appearing, I think we will go +ENSO later, central/eastern cold not as cold today, whatever

NOI is really only thing that matters in ENSO /evenout after Dec 2010,2021

10/11 recent Winter's

After this (300dm, #2 since 1948 is 230dm)

Beaten this Dec

yeah

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Last season was a negative QBO with an eastern biased la nina, which was favorable for blocking, theoretically speaking.

It evens out, it was a slightly -NAO Winter. positive QBO and La Nina have been some of our worst Winter's by a lot. 10mb vortex is like -1000dm mean. Going to be hard to get a -NAO next Winter if there is La Nina I think. It's like 65%/35 +NAO in +QBO/Nina vs 65%/35 -NAO in -QBO/Nino, 10mb vortex is strongest correlator. 

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What we need is a western biased el nino.

Unfortunately, we have +QBO upcoming, which with a La Nina will be a disaster, but an El Nino this year in deep -QBO would have been great I think, (09-10)