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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    I'm a little worried that the 1100s was a wrong turn for the planet.
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    Geez
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    We'll call him +PNA DT
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    -NAO today-yesterday pretty strong -NAO too, and -EPO, +PNA
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    More of the same.. -AO theme
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    +PNA pattern June 1-15 best recent Since 2000 Since 1997, top 13 analogs
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    It's a pretty big shift though. One thing to do it over flat land.
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    -NAO holds, we are shifting ENSO states in the Pacific.
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    I could definitely see that trough sitting over the eastern US with -NAO and +PNA running on models for a while now.
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    Here you go, GOM city shatters old altime May record by almost 3 degrees.
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    Really cool, I noticed record High pressure in the SW and Alaska/warming, but I didn't think it would penetrate moisture. They are right on the GOM.
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    They never would have guessed this stuff pre-1995.
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    That's true, especially with a possible El nino out there, take the under vs 18-23 at like 90%
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 3.2 3.2 2.4 1.5 2.0 0.5 3.3 3.2 2.1
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    Subsurface+ will probably strengthen.
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    15 NS' hasn't broke in El Nino 10 straight times, even weak.
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    +PNA next 15 days is going to strengthen ENSO subsurface warm pool which is already +1 spread-throughout... 2 years ago or last year it didn't matter.. surface SSTs held correlation by significance, but 500mb/SLP pattern subsurface wins by like +5SD's.. I don't know lol. Probably an active season with Neutral ENSO. Maybe 19 storms, unless there is a "put" on it. +ENSO acceleration now without surface movement is going to strengthen our "below the threshold"
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    You look good buddy
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    2009
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    Surprisingly, they have all been -PNA for a long time last year 2021 is an opposite match 2010 is the first year that really even comes close
  21. StormchaserChuck!
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    Nothing La Nina about this http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    Actually, watch out for the anti-correlation with the NAO since 2019, and really 2013. -NAO could mean warmer, especially in real feal
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    2012 is the best recent match 2020 we kind of did RNA(-PNA), but those are the only two matching analogs 3rd one further back, 2011 taada, the temp composite that is emerging^
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    Certainly hasn't felt this warm, but we did a US RNA (-PNA) for 2nd month in a row.
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