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StormchaserChuck!

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Everything posted by StormchaserChuck!

  1. StormchaserChuck!
    March 2012 coming up as analog if it can hold (2011 I think is #1 Dec(10)-Nov so far)
  2. StormchaserChuck!
    really warm-feel rain. coldest 500mb anomaly temps inthe N. Hemisphere.
  3. StormchaserChuck!
    Where I live, I'm expecting 35" of snow(forecast), average is 32".
  4. StormchaserChuck!
    Love the '95 Dec analog, not Jan '96 though.
  5. StormchaserChuck!
    One more https://imgur.com/a/PMELSPi (if not this year, next year) Subsurface is more warm than cold anomalies, despite Moderate La Nina at the surface, extending down to south, South America https://imgur.com/a/aOfDVWw This is going to hit +30-45 days, Dec 15-31, as impacting the N. hemisphere pattern (warm ENSO-subsurface)-probably +PNA or -NAO(EC trough).
  6. StormchaserChuck!
    Love it raindancewx. US is the superstition to lead, but beneath all the depths is real primary. Dec 2010 was the only Dec that matched 2021 by 1.5x #2. This correlation has carried us through the year, and I think should continue to match 11-12 as a winter analog. We have also be reversing 500mb anomalies for the last 2 years. Put those 2 together and you have a nice forecast position. https://imgur.com/a/5AToS86 https://imgur.com/a/R2UC3k7 (hopefully everyone can see this)
  7. StormchaserChuck!
    Holy +NAO https://imgur.com/a/NlbGv2s
  8. StormchaserChuck!
    +3SD https://imgur.com/a/0P4MnCm What I find interesting, is there is more blue(cold) than warm on the map [which is rare]. +NAO at this time strongly correlates with +PNA December (cold anomaly theme) continuum. fits what has happened since September as well.
  9. StormchaserChuck!
    Look at this.
  10. StormchaserChuck!
    flurries?
  11. StormchaserChuck!
    Jet stream is running more west->east vs south/north orientation(anomalies). 30-60N is the mass of the whole cold air mass (13-14,14-15)
  12. StormchaserChuck!
    +NAO.. why I think this Winter will be good
  13. StormchaserChuck!
    yay!
  14. StormchaserChuck!
    looks beautiful. the air is cleaner these days. snow falls more pixelated
  15. StormchaserChuck!
    High pressure
  16. StormchaserChuck!
    -EPO's with +NAO's have been trending colder in shorter range (NAO underperforming index) (I made a thread on this threat 2 days ago but it was deleted..)
  17. StormchaserChuck!
    I also live down the street.
  18. StormchaserChuck!
    +PNA Dec coming to fruition.. I'm excited
  19. StormchaserChuck!
    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html Fortunately, a +NAO Nov 15-25 correlates with a +PNA Dec and Winter, vs being a progression toward a warm solution.
  20. StormchaserChuck!
    Yeah, this looks good I made a thread for the threat earlier, but it was deleted.
  21. StormchaserChuck!
    The two -PNA's that we have had since April have been secondary(bigger main pattern drivers at those times). It's been a real pattern shift starting in April. We are opposite last year 500mb anomaly at -0.85. #2 is 0.49 #3 is 0.44 #4 is 0.42
  22. StormchaserChuck!
    strong 2-3 SD +NAO Nov 15-25.. since 2000, 6 analogs match
  23. StormchaserChuck!
    1 more post.. strong 2-3 SD +NAO Nov 15-25.. since 2000, 6 analogs match fits +PNA theme
  24. StormchaserChuck!
    The last 3 +QBO/La Nina's have been -NAO though. I don't know how 2 strong steering currents to the PV could displace so much at 500mb without 10mb warming.. Pacific would neutralize/become unfavorable I think if NAO goes negative this Winter. .. or maybe the whole thing just washes as has been the trend since 2013,2016,2018,..etc
  25. StormchaserChuck!
    Dec '95 analog
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