StormchaserChuck!

March 2012 coming up as analog if it can hold (2011 I think is #1 Dec(10)-Nov so far)

really warm-feel rain. coldest 500mb anomaly temps inthe N. Hemisphere.

Where I live, I'm expecting 35" of snow(forecast), average is 32".

Love the '95 Dec analog, not Jan '96 though.

One more https://imgur.com/a/PMELSPi (if not this year, next year) Subsurface is more warm than cold anomalies, despite Moderate La Nina at the surface, extending down to south, South America https://imgur.com/a/aOfDVWw This is going to hit +30-45 days, Dec 15-31, as impacting the N. hemisphere pattern (warm ENSO-subsurface)-probably +PNA or -NAO(EC trough).

Love it raindancewx. US is the superstition to lead, but beneath all the depths is real primary. Dec 2010 was the only Dec that matched 2021 by 1.5x #2. This correlation has carried us through the year, and I think should continue to match 11-12 as a winter analog. We have also be reversing 500mb anomalies for the last 2 years. Put those 2 together and you have a nice forecast position. https://imgur.com/a/5AToS86 https://imgur.com/a/R2UC3k7 (hopefully everyone can see this)

Holy +NAO https://imgur.com/a/NlbGv2s

+3SD https://imgur.com/a/0P4MnCm What I find interesting, is there is more blue(cold) than warm on the map [which is rare]. +NAO at this time strongly correlates with +PNA December (cold anomaly theme) continuum. fits what has happened since September as well.

Look at this.

flurries?

Jet stream is running more west->east vs south/north orientation(anomalies). 30-60N is the mass of the whole cold air mass (13-14,14-15)

+NAO.. why I think this Winter will be good

yay!

looks beautiful. the air is cleaner these days. snow falls more pixelated

High pressure