MDstorm

The anomalously dry Fall continues. The last time we had such a dry Fall was in 1963. If only that analog worked out for the upcoming winter

I read the thread and realized the analogs that were being used were quite different in terms of sensible weather in these parts. I just thought it was interesting to surmise a +TNH/-WPO/-EPO pattern which could lead to a serviceable winter (as opposed to all of the La Niña —-this winter is going to suck talk).

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1842599164544192630?s=46&t=7YEptxkR3LfH8Sv9sPDbpg

Where are we going?

As good as U Conn is in basketball, it looks like football helps them revert to the mean, Go Terps.

Torrential downpours for the last hour here. Some lightning and thunder, but no wind.

If a couple tenths lead to shock and ecstasy, what will 15-20 times that amount do to you?

WxUSAF bullseye

The GFS and ICON each have very different evolutions of how Debby plays out. I would say each model is on its own island at this point with the GFS most likely on Gilligan’s Island.

12z Euro is a soaker.

Reading this thread over the last few weeks, I have come to the following conclusions:

I was a youngster when that storm occurred. However, I distinctly remember that on Feb 17th (24-36 hours before the storm even began), AccuWeather was the first to see the possible magnitude of this storm. The NWS and most private forecasters were not making a big deal about the storm. Channel 11, which used AccuWeather at that time came on the air on the evening of Feb 17 and reported a "storm" dropping in from the Ohio Valley looked to explosively re-develop off the NC coast and result in a major snowstorm. The following morning (Sunday), everyone's favorite met, Joe Bastardi, was on the radio and was quite emphatic about the huge potential of that storm (he did nail that one, ). There was one private forecaster on the now defunct WCAO radio station who said during the morning of Feb 18th that he was not overly impressed with the storm, but later came back on in the afternoon and stated that he was stunned by the latest information that he had seen and he was all in for a big storm. (I don't think that it was the RAP or HRRRRRR ). Anyway, with up to 4 inches of cold powder per hour for a few hours, the snow piled up to historic levels and I had over a week off of school.

Looks about right. That small darker blue dot in northern Carroll County must be PSU.

After a couple of hours of light/small flake snow, the Sn++ has arrived.