Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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Yeah, that's what it is. I've been checking basically everything and that's what I came up with. Lee County is being portrayed by Downsloping off High Knob and Black Mtn. -
Hrrr was terrible here last year. I tallied just under 30" for the season. If it had been right, about 10.
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Thought I'd mention this as it may be of interest to some on the board. There appears to be an apparent problem with several of the Model runs snowfall projections for portions of the area, in particular Lee County and adjacent areas of which is obvious based on topography, as well as historical data. Could be a grid problem as Carvers noted while discussing with him. I'll speak with KMRX tomorrow and see what they know regarding this. This area is not known for the prominent snow hole as Kingsport and bordering communities adjacent to there. It actually looks as though the distinguished great Valley lower snowfall amounts area on the models are west of the area they should be, based on the Valleys topography
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A decent amount of cold rain or extended period of ice pellets will cool top soil layer and allow for easier accumulation. Nov. 12, 2019 is a good example of heavy rates overcoming warm ground.
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There is a problem with several of the Model runs snowfall projections for portions of the area, in particular Lee County and adjacent areas of which is obvious based on topography as well as historical data. Could be a grid problem as Carvers noted while discussing with him. I'll speak with KMRX tomorrow and see what they know regarding this.
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What a shock it's gonna be !
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That one's definitely looking good for us.
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Woah !!! 76 on Jan. 30, '02 is the highest January Temp ever recorded in Jonesville. Amazing stuff !
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That is absolutely amazing ! 69.4 here but, more clouds than sun so far today.
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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Daniel Boone replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah. They're bouncing around like crazy at short range. About the worst I can remember. Seems medium range is better. About shameful, lol -
I remember last year similar thing happened. The hrrr is dry too. It was terrible here last winter.
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Damn Nam
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I have pondered that irt the NAO too. I believe that is very well possible as the trough deep n2 the SW pumped the gom/se Ridge to the point it nearly connected. Had at least a semblance of a SW HP been there, the strong -NAO would of worked it's magic, I believe.
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Excellent post and points made !!! With the warming in the PAC in the area of PH 7 to 8 MJO reflection, things should continue to get more favorable moving forward from the PAC standpoint. Hopefully, HLB continues to be favorable,of which I think is likely overall, although it may be mainly the NAO. Could be a Jan and Feb 1985 similarity, of which John has been suggesting as a real analogous possibility.
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Some of the biggest Snowfalls I've seen were from overrunning events.
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Same here. Looked like a foggy August morning.
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Answered it just as I posted John, lol. Yeah, that confounded AH is definitely our Thorn.
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'60's had quite a bit of -PDO -NAO dominate Winters. Interesting to see what you come up with regarding '66 John.
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It ruled the roost here irt snowfall forecast last season. However, that was at much closer range.
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Merry Christmas to all !!!
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When did they do that outlook ? Before todays guidance and subsequent huge changes ? Could be, they're cautious even if written afterward until the writing begins to show on the wall. So many headfakes it's hard to blame them really, and I'm not a fan of CPC.
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Sorry to hear of the health issue Jax. I pray for a speedy recovery. Merry Christmas to you and yours !
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Sad but true ! Maybe we luck n2 a 1972 or '75 type Feb.
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With all the destruction with the recent severe outbreak, lets hope we don't deal with more severe, although wouldn't be surprising. Anytime you have extreme warmth in Winter, that's one of the drawbacks or in many cases, price to pay. Anytime there's a clash in distinct opposite airmasses,regardless of what time of year, that's always a threat. I love wx action in any form for the most part but, even if Severe was my only liking, I'd bite the bullet and pray or hope against it now.
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Carvers, that's what our thoughts have been, once that block is realized. Maybe, some of the younger crowd will take note. As you and a couple other Veterans have basically preached; Models are not good with blocking and generally(although,not always as we've saw in recent years with a SER,-NAO connect)adjust as they are more realized in range. Happens more times than not.
