Daniel Boone

February has pretty much become Floodurary the last few years. This one may be no exception albeit a bit late if, it floods b4 Month's end. Also, i believe winter weather is pretty much over if we don't get a western ridge. Blocking without that ridge this late in winter is most likely not enough to get it done at our latitude. However, it does spell WET. So, hopefully Carvers is right and we can get all to coincide. If so, there would exist the possibility of an old fashioned March Big Dog.

Speaking of Totals guy's, I've been fortunate I guess in that many of the marginal events worked in my favor. Officially, 28.4 inches at my location east of Jonesville, Va. 1732 ft. Ele. Something noteworthy ; This Total would be average in the 1950 to 1980 climate Record period.

Look at that dog face in that image ! Or is that some chick from the 70's with her mouth open. Lol

Had about 3 inches of Snow here around 4 a.m..then sleet and rain kicked in and really packed and melted alot. False reports were reported here due to that. They reported what was on after they got up this morning. Just 1 to 1.5" left as of noon. .75" liquid has recorded on my Weather Station.

The HRRR has KTRI as the sweet spot while WISE hardly any at all. Don't know how its getting that. KTRI hit 50 today, Wise 36.

Should shunt it from coming as far North.

Most of the weather forecast media outlets are all going with the strong WAA warm nose Thursday with possibly a light mix early quickly changing to heavy rain. It's as if they never saw any of the snowy runs. Granted,with the way this system done, it does make it hard to believe those solutions but, not totally discount especially when there's players on the field that could cause those solutions.

I agree Carvers. March is getting late in the game. Without a ridge out West it'll be tough relying on just blocking,is basically what i was aluding to. Hopefully, we can get those in conjunction.

Better hope for a Miller A for Eastern areas.

Euro's had a warm bias for as long as i can remember. Don't know why it never was fixed.

Canadian Suite in particular, may be onto something. I feel at some point the "up the great Valley" se ridge affect will begin to collapse mainly N to South . By that time most of the caa should be entire column, possibly sleet b4 snow changeover as mid level may still have some +0c early on. Of course, in light of consensus, may be just grasping at straws but, have seen this type play out before.

Texas has had one heck of a Winter !

Currently 34.5 here with lt. Rain.

We'd been in business forum wide had blocking stayed strong. Hopefully, we can either get that to rebuild or get ridging more n2 the west b4 too late as that bermuda high is pretty formidable. MJO going decent amp ph. 8 would of done the trick. I am still in hopes we at least get enough nudge eastward to get Eastern areas in the game. That trough orientation as well as bermuda high is pretty locked, unfortunately for a good while it appears.

A little more push via, Hp, kicker systems etc,. Could at least to Clinch Mtn. But, if does cross Cumberlands would probably bank against Smokies. Stick there . For those in at least the western Great Valley, hope for that if u want frozen or snow with early week system.

Yep. It has definitely put a hurting on us here. Crappy things what killed a great pattern getting ready to set in here. It along with the IOD was a thorn in our side all Winter last year.

The old killer, "Tn Valley effect". as dubbed years ago .

Tnwxnut, I see your concerns, particularly over there. Man, u all have been shortchanged irt snow again this season. I've been fortunate here with 25.1 inches so far. I sure hope something occurs that delivers for you all. Glad for the western forum snow lovers. Still believe there'll be a couple decent shots further east as well.

Should of added what tnweathernut mentioned irt less blocking now. Best we can hope for is MJO propagation to ph. 8.

I'm with you there bna. The trend has been realized,albeit slow , with this one . The MJO phase is the difference this time. Hopefully, the SE press, trend will be enough to put us all in the game for snow our of this b4 all is settled.

Ive saw this setup so many times before. Patterns set up in a way that it allows that Great Valley gap to be even more prominent irt cold/snow void. MJO really hurt us royally at a crucial time. Can u imagine had the MJO stayed dormant and the pattern we had stayed in place, with the Arctic air being incorporated ; we'd all been digging out for weeks.

Models clearly MJO 7ing it with the trough in the Rockies & Plains i.m.o. We'll see how well the blocking can cause the cold to come further SE than a typical Ph. 7 pattern.

Yeah, as Carvers noted, nasty outcome and very plausible.

Good question??

Man, sure hope the icing don't come to fruition. Arctic air close by, ph. 7 MJO and blocking lends to that in particular IF blocking is not strong. if it is and not too far west, less icing, more snow.