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Daniel Boone

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  1. Daniel Boone
    It basically boils down to blocking.
  2. Daniel Boone
    As others have mentioned, you are better off even in strong Ninas than areas further East. This year may be similar to last . If so, you'll do fine as you know.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Good post as usual John...the thing that concerns me however is even if the La nina stays weak is the -PDO. See if u can come up with. Composites of that criteria. I know the 1960's featured that combo as well as all other enso combos as well and they were all pretty much cold/ snowy. Blocking was formidable that Decade.
  4. Daniel Boone
    Agree on your leaning strongly toward warm for Valley even with weak to mod nina. However, if formidable blocking can set up then a normal to cold Valley. Ala., 2010-11..but, that unlikely as I feel the -PDO will aid the Nina and the odds for warmth greater as any blocking will prob. be hard to be sustainable.
  5. Daniel Boone
    I would be satisfied with a repeat of last Winter here as my local wound up with almost 30" of Snow ( almost all heavy/wet). However, as Carvers alluded to, the true very cold never made it east of the Plateau other than the Christmas shot.
  6. Daniel Boone
    10-11 was a great Winter here in far SW VA.. No major snowstorms but, plenty of cold and lt to moderate events that led to an above average Season.
  7. Daniel Boone
    There were several that month, depending on your location. Jan. 30 being the most prominent one. NWS Office's throughout area should have some data/info regarding Snowfalls that month. Google Jan. 2010 Snowstorms. There's plenty. Narrow to Tennessee Valley Snowstorms if you just want that.
  8. Daniel Boone
    Picked up 2 day total of about 3.4 here. 5 day, 4.6".
  9. Daniel Boone
    Wound up with 10" here from that one. All Snow. From TN/VA Line to Morristown 14 to 16" fell. Lollipop of 18" reported I think near Hamblen, Hawkins, Hancock line.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Kmrx Rainfall forecast Graphics are way too low along the plateau and SE KY. I don't know how they derived that, tbh.
  11. Daniel Boone
    Ive noticed in recent years , more times than not, HPC guidance underforecasts TC intensity as close in as a day in advance of landfall..They also almost always underforecast rainfall amounts, particularly in northern remnant track locations.
  12. Daniel Boone
    Snow showers and flurries off and on since about 9:30.
  13. Daniel Boone
    Came thru a heavy snow shower in Duffield as was coming back from Kingsport about 6:30 this Evening.
  14. Daniel Boone
    About 4 and a half inches here in Jonesville. 6" + in Southern Lee Co. along Tn. Border.
  15. Daniel Boone
    Ive noticed this happening strongly lately. Dont know the exact reasoning but, may be just the "newbies" basically doing estimates , or manipulating to their thinking on how they feel the area probably did in actuality in "their" minds. Quite possibly basing some of that on how models "see" the area. They also do this on their website with their, " this day in history". They mention way less snowfall amounts with events than actual reported amounts. Sad !
  16. Daniel Boone
    Be nice to get one of the cutoff Low storms, ala, April 1987.
  17. Daniel Boone
    Seasonal Total in Jonesville Va : 28.4 ".
  18. Daniel Boone
    This was Norton, Va March 3, 1942. Dont know why pic loaded sideways.
  19. Daniel Boone
    I, like Carvers don't disagree so much of our area averaging AN. My reasoning being due to the Nina forcing in the Pac mainly. However, changing wavelengths, possible continued HLB along with possible MJO effects considerably decreases the odds and magnitude of the AN prospects. The problem I have is NCEP's outlook in basically overamping, if you will, LaNina pattern reflection for March. They have 90 to 95 % of the U.S. forecasted AN.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Just bring that ball about 150 to 200 miles north.
  21. Daniel Boone
    I see some outlets have already jumped the gun and pulled the trigger on their March outlook. Above to much above Temps for everywhere except Pac NW...Lol.
  22. Daniel Boone
    This late in the game, need that ridge in the west.
  23. Daniel Boone
    February has pretty much become Floodurary the last few years. This one may be no exception albeit a bit late if, it floods b4 Month's end. Also, i believe winter weather is pretty much over if we don't get a western ridge. Blocking without that ridge this late in winter is most likely not enough to get it done at our latitude. However, it does spell WET. So, hopefully Carvers is right and we can get all to coincide. If so, there would exist the possibility of an old fashioned March Big Dog.
  24. Daniel Boone
    Speaking of Totals guy's, I've been fortunate I guess in that many of the marginal events worked in my favor. Officially, 28.4 inches at my location east of Jonesville, Va. 1732 ft. Ele. Something noteworthy ; This Total would be average in the 1950 to 1980 climate Record period.
  25. Daniel Boone
    Look at that dog face in that image ! Or is that some chick from the 70's with her mouth open. Lol
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