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Daniel Boone

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Everything posted by Daniel Boone

  1. Daniel Boone
    Strong blocking could still counter it pretty good but, that's hard to bet on.
  2. Daniel Boone
    Maybe the Global warming Climate money grabbing bunch are involved. Hacking models to produce warm outlooks
  3. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, definitely need SSTs to warm at least in that Nina location. If not, pray for the ssw to come thru and pop hlb. For cold/snow lovers that could salvage January and a weakened Nina may Feb.
  4. Daniel Boone
    I think we all agree that without HLB this Winter is basically set in stone mild overall. When the Greenland block set up, I was concerned that the AO wasn't also going decently negative. I think we need them both to counter all the warm drivers with sustainability. IF a SSW does occur, it would assist in forcing a favorable HLB Regime i.m.o.. How long that would last against so many hostile variables ?., God knows. The MJO is, of course the other driver that can help but, can also hurt, as we all know.
  5. Daniel Boone
    So....you're saying there's a chance, lol.
  6. Daniel Boone
    1 in a bunch. Yes, a possibility but, not likely, imo. Qbo blocking and odds are against it.
  7. Daniel Boone
    Happy Thanksgiving! Sounds like a probable occurrence this Winter as I think blocking will be prevalent and that in combination with La nina and -PDO should result in swings.
  8. Daniel Boone
    Great info and work John ! The 71-72 one sticks out to me...There was a major late November Snowstorm here (8 inch). Dec...very small events here. Jan. Mild, basically snowless. Feb., An Alaskan born major cold shot mid Month sparked a major east coast Snowstorm 17-19th. 8" on the 17th here. Interesting 500 mb charts on all those Winters and events you presented on Plymouth.
  9. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, Carvers. A bit tough to decipher. MJO along with overall bad PAC , with no blocking would be a no brainer but, things may follow similar route as last Winter. Therefore, blocking would be pretty dominate and alter any Pac driven super mild pattern here.
  10. Daniel Boone
    Excellent post buddy ! Yeah, I remember those days of old... We've cashed in with decent snowfalls with that setup. I will note; the 60's also had that pattern rather often and as most know that Decade was basically cold/snowy. A -PDO and -NAO was dominate overall. Many nowadays, particularly the younger crowd, including Mets, tend to go automatic mild in this area with the Alaskan vortex or trough(for obvious reasons). A SW US Ridge and strong block in the areas portrayed can produce a pattern where we can cash in still with cold and snow.
  11. Daniel Boone
    Think they're having trouble with the Greenland block...Gefs wants to basically go Pac driven and basically overpower the -NAO affect. With that firehouse pac jet, it would sure halp to have a strong -AO in conjunction with the-NAO. Imo, that would help counter the terrible Pac setup.
  12. Daniel Boone
    12z GFS went totally into the crapper !
  13. Daniel Boone
    Foliage peak was 2 to 3 weeks behind normal here in SWVA .
  14. Daniel Boone
    Them cold look fountains are the one's that just look like they'd just have to have cold water flowing out of them. Lol
  15. Daniel Boone
    Currently 37 up here in Wise now. 45 at home in Jonesville. 52 in Kingsport. Pretty good spread in area. Agree John on overnight lows. Kmrx is almost always too high on forecasted Temps for your and my area.
  16. Daniel Boone
    Yeah. It is rather interesting to study that period and see what we can deduce on the difference in outcome in comparison to this era.
  17. Daniel Boone
    Chuck, what's your thoughts and answer on the Winter of 1950-51 ? Neg. PDO + La nina. I know a different Climate Era but, worth a discussion. Hlb clearly altered the typical La nina -PDO outcome as it did in mid 60's and 95-96 and 2010-11. I've not checked QBO Status from that year.
  18. Daniel Boone
    A little food for thought. With most forecasters going for a mild Winter in the Eastern US based mainly on La nina and a neg. PDO , I thought i'd bring up a historical event that occurred during a similar setup. The "Great Appalachian Storm" of November 1950. https://www.weather.gov/jkl/appalachianstorm1950 There's many articles on it. Just google. Very interesting ! Of course, nothing of that magnitude in this climate era is bordering impossible, when you consider the time of year and the extreme cold associated. However, it does show the possibility of a cold/snowy pattern in the Eastern States during a La nina/-Pdo Winter. The rest of that Winter averaged basically normal with the Nashville area receiving a major Ice/Snowstorm in January.
  19. Daniel Boone
    Recorded 1st freeze of Season here this morning. 31.6 degrees.
  20. Daniel Boone
    Recorded 1st freeze of Season here this morning. 31.6 degrees.
  21. Daniel Boone
    The reality is, if formidable hlb isn't pre$ent this Winter it's basically set in stone Mild. The 1960's featured a similar Pac setup several times that Decade and the Winters were cold/snowy in much of the Nation. The key; High latitude blocking. I know many will argue that was a different climate era as why. I agree the same pattern yielded today would be warmer than then but, still blocking was reason for a cold nation as a whole and not just the West, as a -PDO/La nina Pattern would dictate without it. So, there's still some hope.
  22. Daniel Boone
    It's all good man.
  23. Daniel Boone
    Yeah. I know that. Over 40 years experience. As mentioned earlier, and take a look at those years. Blocking is key in those colder la nina /-PDO Winters, ala; 2010-11.
  24. Daniel Boone
    It all boils down to formidable blocking this year. Weak mod nina/ neg pdo. Gotta have blocking .
  25. Daniel Boone
    Actually, for eastern Valley it wasn't great at all snowfall wise other than Christmas event. Ktri was below avg snowfall.
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