Daniel Boone

To add some enlightment to that. For NOAA/CPC to put EC over us is a great sign. Hard for them to do that even without La nina. If the block is formidable during January and we get the MJO go slowly thru cold phases, that ec will be bn and possibly encompass areas further east as well. As we all know, even if Canada were to go milder than avg. that air funneled down here would still be cold for us. Even the sour winter of 2001-02 featured the right setup in early Jan and Canada was very mild. We still received a significant snowfall during that in much of the area. Just thought I'd throw that out there to strengthen the positive about the likely looking 500 mb pattern. Not saying Canada goes mild but that has been known to happen . Doesn't look likely this time though. I agree with Carvers totally in that IF that Pattern continues to be advertised, Models will adjust colder.

Was looking at that earlier. Looking interesting in the near future.

With all the convection within the 6-7 area, it is possible for a pattern reflecting a 6 to 7. Hopefully, the HLB is being instigated thru other dynamics and counters the MJO until when or if it goes cold phases. We can still get snow with enuff blocking regardless.

Yeah, I remember that tucking too. Rather odd but yeah, can happen. Seems oddities have happened moreso in recent years. Reminds me of the QBO antics couple years ago.

Misinterpreted ur earlier post irt Grit. Yeah, if that happens with MJO and HLB in place. Just Wow !

Grit is east of Mountains. They had a basically snowless winter last year. Granted, this year may be a dud this side of apps too but, may also be similar to last, if so Grit etal will look good I guess for east of Apps.

My 2 cents. Again, last Winter was -PDO and La nina. How often was MJO in cold phases ? HLB was prevalent. I recorded 29.3 " snow here. Canada wasn't near as cold as it looks to be this Winter. So, regardless of who or what says no snow with a -PDO LA nina Combo without favourable MJO. Formidable HLB ftw !

Yeah,true Kevin. Hopefully we get that along with a -AO. If we get hlb akin to last Winter, we should do fine. More cold in Canada to work with this year.

Yeah, hopefully we get strong blocking. That's definitely the gamechanger, dealmaker in La Ninas. Mod/strong la nina of 2010-11 attests to that big time. Pretty much all lr outlooks were very mild for our area for obvious reasons.

Preliminary here in Lee County from initial line. Numerous limbs down, electrical outages. Appears to of been straightline.

Yeah, that's what we were hoping strong hlb would do when it set up last month but, it never built into the AO domain. Hopefully, that will be the case and will help force the goa lp sw or even west.

Yeah, was a fun February for sure. Forgot to mention recorded -20 in Pennington gap on the 20th. -16 at my home in Jonesville with a high of 12. That was a Winter where Kingsport outdid Bristol and Johnson city by quite a margin irt snowfall. I know you rubbed that in Carvers, lol

NE TN. wasn't that fortunate as records indicate there John. Carvers and myself can attest to that. Look at KTRI for instance compared to Carvers Totals. Mine compared to Rogersville just to my South. Quite a sharp difference.

Good points Carvers ! Yes, 2014-15 had a very sharp demarcation line in who got alot of snow and who got mix or cold rain. Wound up with 34" Jan-Feb. Total at my local. 33" Feb. alone. Northern Lee County 50" ! That wasn't highest elevations either.

Late '70's Winters were tops for me. Pretty much wall to wall cold and snowcover ( 76-77' 77-78)for 2+ Months solid. 78-79 , got going late but produced solid Jan. to early March. 84-85 saw morning low of -27 a daily high of -4 on heels of a 7" snowfall from Arctic Fropa. A unpredicted short duration Blizzard Feb. 12, of which 15" snow fell in 6 hours with 4-6' drifts ! That AFTER over 2" rain . Didn't get to finish. Called back at Dr office. As far as cold. Dec. 89. 95-96...low of -21 Hi, -4 in Pennington gap. That follwed 10" Feb. 4 Snowfall.

Problem is, Invests continue to develop in west Pac that weaken or hamper the propagation n2 cold phases.

Can u imagine living there ?! As far as local, Wise recorded a dusting this morning. Flurries here.

Flurries between 8 and 9 a.m..quick burst whited out Wallen Ridge about 2 miles to my east. See Wise got a dusting on UVAWise Cam.

Yeah. There's some correlated catalysts but, nothing is foolproof with it. Thus, the lack of lr predictability.

I agree Kevin. Sure would help. Carvers made key points imo, on what would work . Propagation n2 cold phases is tough due to driver resistance as Jeff alluded to. The way out is what we have been hoping for; Formidable HLB. Alter the flow and force the desired 500 mb config..

I know you didn't. I just figured I should have. And yeah, you are a great asset to the forum brother.

I should of worded better. You do a much better job than me buddy . Yeah, a bit east makes sense as well.

Good post. Point I was making when referencing the possibility of similar result as last Winter.

IF the HLB does manifest then we should be in business regardless of MJO and the crappy PAC at least in northern forum areas, as last Winter showed as long as it's formidable and stable for awhile, providing there's enuff cold from Canada to come down, of which doesn't look like a problem.

Shafted here with rain amounts again. Weakness developed between heavy area north and south along precip shield. Just 0.33" as of 12:30 p.m..