Daniel Boone

I remember last year similar thing happened. The hrrr is dry too. It was terrible here last winter.

Damn Nam

I have pondered that irt the NAO too. I believe that is very well possible as the trough deep n2 the SW pumped the gom/se Ridge to the point it nearly connected. Had at least a semblance of a SW HP been there, the strong -NAO would of worked it's magic, I believe.

Excellent post and points made !!! With the warming in the PAC in the area of PH 7 to 8 MJO reflection, things should continue to get more favorable moving forward from the PAC standpoint. Hopefully, HLB continues to be favorable,of which I think is likely overall, although it may be mainly the NAO. Could be a Jan and Feb 1985 similarity, of which John has been suggesting as a real analogous possibility.

Some of the biggest Snowfalls I've seen were from overrunning events.

Same here. Looked like a foggy August morning.

Answered it just as I posted John, lol. Yeah, that confounded AH is definitely our Thorn.

'60's had quite a bit of -PDO -NAO dominate Winters. Interesting to see what you come up with regarding '66 John.

It ruled the roost here irt snowfall forecast last season. However, that was at much closer range.

Merry Christmas to all !!!

When did they do that outlook ? Before todays guidance and subsequent huge changes ? Could be, they're cautious even if written afterward until the writing begins to show on the wall. So many headfakes it's hard to blame them really, and I'm not a fan of CPC.

Sorry to hear of the health issue Jax. I pray for a speedy recovery. Merry Christmas to you and yours !

Sad but true ! Maybe we luck n2 a 1972 or '75 type Feb.

With all the destruction with the recent severe outbreak, lets hope we don't deal with more severe, although wouldn't be surprising. Anytime you have extreme warmth in Winter, that's one of the drawbacks or in many cases, price to pay. Anytime there's a clash in distinct opposite airmasses,regardless of what time of year, that's always a threat. I love wx action in any form for the most part but, even if Severe was my only liking, I'd bite the bullet and pray or hope against it now.

Carvers, that's what our thoughts have been, once that block is realized. Maybe, some of the younger crowd will take note. As you and a couple other Veterans have basically preached; Models are not good with blocking and generally(although,not always as we've saw in recent years with a SER,-NAO connect)adjust as they are more realized in range. Happens more times than not.

Good post and work Chuck !

You'd think those SSTs there would be cooled enuff from all the tcs there recently that development there would cease, or at least weaken their strength if they move thru there. Confounded area! Lol

We do need at least a shift with the Aleutian ridge. If the -NAO can help shove that GOM/SE Ridge west n2 the SW, think things will be much better. NW to SE moving Jet with embedded Shtwvs. Several -pdo/nina winters featured that setup.

I'm not a fan either. Although a weak one as well as weak Nino tend to avg out as our best snow/cold winters. I don't like a strong -PDO Lanina combo. However, my statement on the - NAO has proven to be true time and time again. Models do underestimate its affect much of the time. Hopefully, same case this time.

Yeah. However, on the plus side, Models tend to underestimate the effects of the -NAO So, things may actually look up faster than expected.

They are rather confused, lol

Exactly. Makes sense. If we can get that Neg. NAO AO Combo over the top connection to it, I think we'll be in business.

Definitely what to hope for brother !

'71-72 and 74-75 have been coming to my mind lately. 98-99 was actually similar to those although at least there was a 4-6" Snowfall Dec. 30, 98. 71-72 had an arctic outbreak in February with a coastal developing on its heels dumping a major snowfall from our area NEward. 74-75 only had 1 decent snowfall in lower eles. That being in March .( 5" in Pennington gap). There were a couple Snowstorms east of the Apps from Coastals in Feb...As I remember, Asheville did quite well with those. Also of note, March '99 produced about 6" in Pennington gap from 2 events. So, may be some late action this year IF follows similar path. Tbh, hopefully not. If the MJO can make it to 8 then cod. I think this one should fair better.

Good stuff! 95-96 featured those se moving storms that were miller A/B hybrids. Man, those can really hammer us !