Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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Great points ! A little more press from the N would put that Ky area in our area, minus what ds within the Valley would cut back. I recall a east to west system on feb. 15 05 that spread snow across Tn that was supposed to drop much less snow in East Tn due to low rh, ds and temps in mid 40's . Snow began as a short period of rain with a stiff ene wind. It quickly changed to heavy wet snow of which mounted up to 9 inches in 5 hours along the TN/VA border. Quite a synoptic difference with this one but, that goes to show what low dps and heavy rates can do to mitigate downsloping. Models as well as kmrx had went under an in swva counties to 1-3 border counties in Tn. at onset. I recorded 5" in Jonesville.
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That was the Kentucky monster, lol. 2 feet central Ky.
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As it looks now, Central and Eastern KY is golden.
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Don't look now Carvers but, the prominent Kingsport snowholes back.
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Its sure looking like it unfortunately.
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Poor Chatt snowlovers. Just to think they somehow tallied 20" in "93 Blizzard ! More than Knox or Tri.
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yeah, that's more like it.
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Actually, pretty decent i think. It usually does rather poor here irt snowfall. Tends to underforecast amounts and is a bit high on Temps.
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Hopefully 3k Nam falls inline with the others on 0z. It kinda looks like an almost disconnect into separate moisture fields. Could be suggesting what kmrx mentioned as a possible issue; Dry column and saturation.
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Good points as usual John. It's definitely getting very interesting.
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That's it ! A bit early but... Lol. If that comes to fruition, just say part luck and old school forecasting. Lol
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Yeah, good possibility. Also, not so sure this Nina follows typical nina progression in Feb.. At some point, I believe the -NAO will return and actually work for us. Also, some late Nina Winter Storms occurred in '72 and 75. Feb. and March respectively. I'm probably wishcasting a bit here, ha ha, but, also looking at a couple 2nd year Ninas that had that progression and presenting the possibility. Also, looking at the -NAO Episodes and extrapolating with it.
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Excellent analysis and analogy of the area . Definitely put it in perspective. That is why a juiced weaker system with light winds and an overrunning event are in most cases better for snow within the great Valley. -
Yeah. Deform setup East unfortunately. Wound up with 1.7" here. Downsloping off Black did probably hurt some but, it mainly was the deform and I think extreme convective area to our south producing heavy rates there robbed some northward transport of moisture n2 this area.
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It does.
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Yeah, that's what it is. I've been checking basically everything and that's what I came up with. Lee County is being portrayed by Downsloping off High Knob and Black Mtn.
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Hrrr was terrible here last year. I tallied just under 30" for the season. If it had been right, about 10.
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Thought I'd mention this as it may be of interest to some on the board. There appears to be an apparent problem with several of the Model runs snowfall projections for portions of the area, in particular Lee County and adjacent areas of which is obvious based on topography, as well as historical data. Could be a grid problem as Carvers noted while discussing with him. I'll speak with KMRX tomorrow and see what they know regarding this. This area is not known for the prominent snow hole as Kingsport and bordering communities adjacent to there. It actually looks as though the distinguished great Valley lower snowfall amounts area on the models are west of the area they should be, based on the Valleys topography
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A decent amount of cold rain or extended period of ice pellets will cool top soil layer and allow for easier accumulation. Nov. 12, 2019 is a good example of heavy rates overcoming warm ground.
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There is a problem with several of the Model runs snowfall projections for portions of the area, in particular Lee County and adjacent areas of which is obvious based on topography as well as historical data. Could be a grid problem as Carvers noted while discussing with him. I'll speak with KMRX tomorrow and see what they know regarding this.
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What a shock it's gonna be !
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That one's definitely looking good for us.
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Woah !!! 76 on Jan. 30, '02 is the highest January Temp ever recorded in Jonesville. Amazing stuff !
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That is absolutely amazing ! 69.4 here but, more clouds than sun so far today.
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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread
Daniel Boone replied to BlueRidgeFolklore's topic in Southeastern States
Yeah. They're bouncing around like crazy at short range. About the worst I can remember. Seems medium range is better. About shameful, lol
