Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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Alot has to do with the model ingest system. Official Weather Station Data goes into them. We'll use KTRI for instance. It has produced warmer, drier conditions overall for the last couple weeks than areas surrounding it. That is being ingested and therefore reflected. The more that occurs, the more pronounced on the Models. They also use Topography amongst other initialized data and input. I think the Weather Station ingested data is obvious.
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Has anyone noticed that after a system produces a snow hole of sorts with less snow and higher temps within that area, it seems the models reflect that the very next system it seems, lol. Ktri stuck out like a sore thumb with the last system and it being the warm spot within the great Valley. Although a bit broadbrushed, check out that sore thumb on the Euro map. Lol Would say ds or coincidence but, Wise is within that...not very likely at all. One epic warm/snowless hole shouldn't cause that though..strange.
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Exactly. Still several days out.
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One of the local TV Mets said any accs would be above 4000 ft. Lol. Even without the evaporative cooling theres more than likely going to be minor accs down to at least the 2500 ft level and quite possibly lower if qpf is greater than modeled with that first system in seky/swva.
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Yep. That goes along with that nina southern route. Im rooting for the GFS but, EC is probable route, imo.
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Yeah, I agree as far as what is the typical as well. Definitely not wanting that deep southern track and know the UK is crap anymore but, just a sour gut feeling possibility as I recall those nina years and setups when that occurred. Not that extreme south but, the loop west, south and then east of us. March, 09 . Cant remember the other year. Memp. got hammered then Atl and Chatt. Then Tn/NC border east. That is my worry. Should have specified precisely. Not nearly as south as uk depicts.
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That's my concern there ! Happened in a couple Nina Winter's .
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Good question. Being an Antique, I recall some but, don't remember when or what effect irt the Valley. I think the late 70's Winter's featured some of those. However, such cold air masses were generally in place that the Valley warm nose wasn't as noticed irt precip types.
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Folks, now that looks like a January 1996 major snowstorm evolution. Also, similar, i guess to the early Feb.'96 one as well. Hit me some weenies for this post , lol
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Had those weeklies been produced from today's 12z Run, would be a good bit colder and snowier.
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Yeah, good analogy for the AH origin Carvers, lol Hopefully we score several times the next 2 to 3 weeks.
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Makes sense. That 6z depiction of returning to the identical warm pattern of DEC. in lr just doesn't jive either as indexes/drivers are going increasingly against that. The possibility does exist of a mild pattern once again, at least for a time. Barring any strong blocking up top I suspect Feb. will be back and forth.
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With the Sst profile now warmed into the 7-8 area, it makes sense. If the warming progressing it should further stronger eastward progression later on. May end up with a good winter here on, or at least up into Feb. especially with blocking appearing likely setting up too.
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Excellent explanation Powell. Makes sense.
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Actually, Lee County, Va did miss the warm nose at 850. All Snow with a range of 2.5 to 6" reported. The drying did somewhat, thus the lower totals compared to SE KY. Although,better in general catching the dryer,less snow trend the HRRR was once again too warm and too low on Totals for Lee Co..
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Total in Jonesville Va as of 9:30 pm 3.25".
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I've always said that . I recall back in the '90's Dierks on WCYB saying their avg seasonal snowfall was over 100 inches.
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Yeah, they hold the state seasonal record of 123.5 inches set in '95-96
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2.6" here in Jonesville as lt snow continues. A testament about models earlier 850s going above 0c here today was wrong as we received all Snow.
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Good point. And basically, those models are seeing that as mix instead of snow and therefore the snowfall maps will show lower than the probable amounts since those areas are getting all snow.
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An inch here now. Snow got light after last report but has not picked back up to probably 3/4" hour rate.
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3/4" now and probably 2" hour rate.
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Snow began in Pennington gap at 12:50. Fine flakes just started in in Jonesville. Snowing heavy on Stone Mountain , I can see it from here.
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That's some heavy duty stuff there !
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Right now. It looks great where you are.
