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Daniel Boone

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  1. Daniel Boone
    I think ur right irt the MJO. The 500 mb pattern sure is looking like that 3 to 4 transition. If so, odds of the Feb. 72 and 75 similar playout are off the Table. Maybe an '84 Feb/March variation. Not good in the great Valley . Points West did o.k. . There was a March event that produced Thundersnow and a significant Snowfall 2000ft and above in the Eastern Forum Area.
  2. Daniel Boone
    Ì agree John. It's as if they want people to believe the areas got less. I just don't get it.??. It almost appears they are computer generated but, apparently not based on official obs input. Western Lee received much more than that graphic indicates. As you mentioned John, the Snow streamer bands would be evident on that map if it were done correctly.
  3. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, remember that one well. I had 5" in Jonesville. Just 2 miles south of me in southern Lee County there was 8" . Stickleyville in eastern Lee at base of Powell Mountain had 9". Northern Lee received no precip. Amazing sharp cutoff.
  4. Daniel Boone
    Anyone remember back in December when most were calling for a canonical nina February.?. I had my suspicions and alluded to the possibility of a 1971-72 and 74-75 type. There was a major arctic outbreak mid Feb. 72 followed by a major Snowstorm. Feb. 75 featured cold and Snow deep into the SE with most snow to our south and east. However, a Snowstorm occured in parts of our area in early March. Not particularly great analogues in all respects but, possible similar outcomes.
  5. Daniel Boone
    You would think that will be the case with the MJO in ph. 3 if it influences enough as well.
  6. Daniel Boone
    Yep !
  7. Daniel Boone
    Check that streak out from western Lee that stayed intact down thru the heart of the upper valley. Several inches western Lee co. from it . KMRX measured an inch and a half from it at their Office.
  8. Daniel Boone
    Picked up just a half inch here. Far NE Lee County picked up several inches as well as all of Wise County. Western Lee County picked up 1 to 3". Not a single streamer moved over here. Just western and eastern sections the County.
  9. Daniel Boone
    I don't know how noticeable it has been to many on the board but, there is a bit of a discrepancy within most models now that began a couple months back. If you notice, the linear of the great valley qpf output is not matching up as well as it did a few months ago. At first, it looked like a grid problem but, upon further investigation I found it to be due to "Official" Weather Station Data ingestion. The Pennington gap Station in Lee County, of which had been nullified several years ago due to bad management operation of observers there submitting erroneous Data, has been reinstated and is once again presenting flawed Obs and Data. I spoke with KMRX regarding this and hopefully will get this taken care of. I'm pretty sure more "Official" Stations have been added as well. This Data is used in the Model Ingest System and therefore affects the areas of their input locations. I'll pass along what and if there's more I find out regarding this.
  10. Daniel Boone
    As far as the current impending minor threat, I'm rooting for the rgem for obvious reasons. However, providing dry air doesn't consume more qpf than it indicates, the rgem actually looks more realistic with amounts and topographical coverage layout than some of the others, particularly the gfs. The GFS has the entire Valley blanked now. Hard to buy that as quick moving mod. Snshwrs with high ratios will drop a half inch rather fast.
  11. Daniel Boone
    Your location John is alot like the Norton area irt temps and Snowfall. Wise , just a couple miles north of Norton has a seasonal Snowfall avg. of 48" (Wise Airport). It is about 500 ft. Higher however. Norton's is probably 32 to 35" just guessing. So, ur are definitely in a sweet spot .
  12. Daniel Boone
    Agree. I've witnessed that here. Models are only as good as what goes into them as well. Not all official weather station data that is ingested is accurate, thereby causing the Models to forecast for the area from where the inaçcurate data comes from to be in error . I know of some stations in my area that are as much as 4 degrees above actual as well as poor official observers.
  13. Daniel Boone
    My Dad used to say that. Wasn't always the case of course. Fond memories. I was up Norton today and they still have snow cover on level ground and North facing, shady areas. Large piles still in parking Lots.
  14. Daniel Boone
    Tbh, undetermined as so many variables vying for control. MJO warm phases coupled with Nina in Feb. is as you know a strong undesirable combo. Hopefully,we can get it in strong cold phases. However, WPO and EPO have been flexing pretty good so, my best guess is a combative pattern with troughs rather progressive if MJO doesn't go predominately in cold phases in FEB. . Of course old fashioned blocking style would help as well. That's my old school relic wag, lol
  15. Daniel Boone
    When we needed a sw Atlantic Ridge,or an east based ser if you will, we don't get one i.e, this upcoming system. The past week and a half has really been a disappointment in this location overall. Clippers went North, SS systems South.
  16. Daniel Boone
    Just watched a local tv met and he apparently is behind the game. Looked like yesterdays model run he was using irt the week as well as weekend system. He just had the clipper affecting area Friday and nothing as far a Storm even in central NC. Also, mentioned " arctic air" Saturday with 32 as a high and 16 low listed. Lol. I'll say this, if model data is correct even at this juncture, it won't even be close to that even at KTRI. May be a high closer to the low he presented.
  17. Daniel Boone
    Most cases when they track right they're 2-4 here but sometimes produce 4-6".
  18. Daniel Boone
    I'm inclined to agree. May luck out if blocking behaves right and doesn't go screwy and lock cold west . Blocking is what we needed with current pattern, imo, as would allow Clippers to track south and we'd do decent with those.
  19. Daniel Boone
    Wise Va Cam : https://www.uvawise.edu/academics/departments/mathematics-computer-science/webcam
  20. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, think they are basically going Nina Feb. Climo . Hopefully, we pull off an odd Nina one ala; 96, 72 or even '75.
  21. Daniel Boone
    Wound up with a dusting this morning. 2 tenths to be exact... If med. range modeling is correct, looks like below avg. T for Month with avg. Snowfall based on older Climate standard, above avg., New. Barring an above avg snow Feb/March it's looking like a below avg. Snowfall Winter here.
  22. Daniel Boone
    Wow!
  23. Daniel Boone
    Yeah, same here. Way colder than forecasted ! High was 36. Currently 34.3 with lt. Rain.
  24. Daniel Boone
    Right with you brother !
  25. Daniel Boone
    Agree wholeheartedly . Im actually pulling for a subtle se shift with the frontal system Thursday. As of now only the rgem is showing a somewhat se shift with the snow with it. Not too long ago, these frontal setups brought snow pre and ana. Maybe we can get a little stronger ca push and we'll get that se trend but, at this juncture I am in doubt. As it stands now, my local is at 7.65" on the season. Seasonal avg. is 17".
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