Daniel Boone

Yeah, I agree. Too many Driver's going against the MA . The hope imo lies in the NAO( no brainer there) and above average PV disruptions. However, the rising QBO really hurts the possibility of any dominant, sustainable -NAO imo. Flukes and Miracles do happen.

Agree. In the same respect, if you take out 1949-50 alone the outcome is somewhat different as it was so strongly above average.

Saw it on Twitter. Interesting.

Sure looks that way. Best we can hope for is it stays rather low amp in the warm phases but, that's not too likely. Hopefully another Driver can knock things off kilter. There are a couple things that have a chance but odds are stacked against them being dominant for any sustainability. The rising QBO is a big concern imo .

Great post !

If were to happen, reminiscent 1950's Nina's !

Excellent points Carver's . Glad you posted those. Odds do favor milder than avg. for particularly the eastern forum obviously as the Pac is a big Driver. Solar definitely not good either. As mentioned many times, and we all basically know, what we need to alter the canonical Nina Pattern is a formidable -NAO. Saw a post on MA Forum about 2 Winter's with similar aspects as this Nov. irt pattern and indexes. Analogues; 1978-79 and 85-86. Both were good Winter's snow wise here . Both featured dominant blocking. 78-79 was a record cold one for the Nation as a whole. Every continental US State was below average except for Maine and Florida ! 85-86 featured slightly below avg Temps here with above average Snowfall. Area's SE of us were above average Temperature. Incidentally, it was a third Year Nina as well. Great Analogue.

78-79 as a whole was cold nationwide. Think Florida and Maine were the only exception as they were avg to slightly above.

Same here. Great Winter snow wise here.

Yeah, Euro continues to lag . Could be a bias of hanging energy back, keeping trough further west. May be in the differences in their MJO projection.

The greatest Met of all time (DT) would rail you for posting that. Then put his know it all forecast.lol

If strong blocking can setup, it'll squash that thing enough to put at least Northern area's in the game for frozen precip regardless of the PAC setup. Also, would bring much h needed rain to the South.

Yeah, if we can continue to get these PV disruptions it may make for an interesting Winter regardless of enso and PDO state. The 60's Decade comes to mind. A decent amount of La nina -PDO Year's in there. They did fluctuate temp wise as you had the mild dry periods but, some healthy cold snowy one's as well. Blocking was a mainstay during those Winter's. I don't know what the catalyst was ; quite possibly PV disruptions played a role.

As you know, all LR Models are heavily weighted ENSO.

Exactly what I've been thinking too. That pest is definitely blocking the flow as it's creating confluence n and nw of it. Providing things line up upstream, once that thing's outa the way, we may be in business.

Yeah, the great record cold December followed. Then, the great flip to mild Jan. 1st that resulted in mild east/cold west rest of Winter.

Agree.

One of the greatest Winters, 1977-78 flipped late November. Of course we're talking a different era then. Would be nice to witness that again. The modern era the later seems to be the desired.

Actually saw a Tick today. Very unusual this time of year here. Hadn't saw any since Spring. Really odd.

Agreed. Still some advertised PV stretching upcoming of which looks to aid into an Eastern trough.

Yeah, saw that. Sure could use a tc in more ways than one. Drought getting serious.

My hopes have been on the warm west coast and nepac SST'S and a neg. NAO. to throw Nina off kilter. However, current progged pattern may cool those waters in pac thereby hurting that help. Some areas in the urals/Scandinavian and natlantic are looking more favorable for -NAO. So, guess we root for that along with PV disruptions .

Sure hope it makes it up this way. Breezy out with low rh. currently 48%.

At high amp it can be a very dominant driver.

If I'm not mistaken, someone on the boards took the time to break it down with phases and the differences when formidable blocking was present awhile back. Of course, amplitude had an effect too. As one would expect, blocking did alter the canonical MJO Phase.