Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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The MJO will be going through cold phases through months end. Guidance has the AO going from strongly Negative to positive. So, a bit of conflict regarding staying cold or going warm.
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Yeah, saved us from any major flooding thankfully. The Saturday Deal could be another Story though.
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I think they have an "in house" Model.
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What discrepancy ?
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That's what she said
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1.95" here so far . Temp. 36.7. The High was 37.
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1.95 here so far and still Raining.
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With a slow progression through phase 8 and a negative AO expect a couple big Storms from the Mid South to the upper SE by Months end. Models should begin to show these more prominent within the next 5 Days or so.
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An inch and a half of Rainfall since Midnight now.
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Yep. So, all the local forecast Outlets and the NWS won't show the real cold in their 10 Day Outlooks. GFS Based.
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Started as Sleet and snow mix here as I was turning in last night. Northern Lee and Wise County reported measurable Snow this Morning. From what I can tell on the order of 1-4 inches. Raining there now however. Around an inch of Rain so far here as of now. Heaviest just to my west in SEKY.
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Some good one's in there.
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Heavy Sleet being reported on the Plateau in Tennessee now.
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Don't think Model's had any Frozen Precip projected for there. So, could be a warning for areas further North and East.
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Wouldn't be surprised to see more Snow involved in the Equation late Week. Still will likely be flooding this week but, not all looks to be Rain now.
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Yeah, going to be absolutely brutal !
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GFS showing several inches of Snow/sleet for here. 7 inches progged for Wise. 2 inch line down to Claiborne County on 18z Run. HRRR usually performs poorly here. Under does Snowfall Amounts here in Lee County 90% of the Time. Has a known warm bias from here down to Johns neck of the Woods.
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Grounds still saturated up here.
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MJO Ph 8 augmenting a +PNA. Blocking also appears to be getting situated in a better location as well.
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Excellent Post and explanation! The great Feb 2015 Pattern featured a solid +NAO BUT, a continual Parade of LP's kept training into SE Canada that in a sense mimicked a standing 50-50. Shows how important that is.
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Yeah, need that +PNA to pop . Big time business if it does enough. Feb 2015 had a strong +PNA and + NAO.
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Looks to be weakening. Hopefully that's the case .
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Looking like a weak to mod Nino. Should be +PDO. Atlantic unknown at this juncture. All in all sounds encouraging.
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Yeah, the old warm and rain, cold and dry deal. That is a worry. Hopefully won't be the case and we keep an active STJ when the MJO goes into cold Phases. There's a chance of a throwback Monster if that Jet remains active and a decent Ridge pops out west along with strong blocking. Historically, late Feb/March are our favorable Time for Blockbuster Snowfalls.
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Disaster if that were to happen. Picked up close to an inch here overnight. Ground is full after the 3" last week.
