Daniel Boone

I don't know what caused that other than the earlier 3k run and them smoothing/ broadbrushing some.

That's it !

How's the mean looking now ?

With Atmospheric Tools available it just doesn't add up to why they're that far off.

Conservative Call. I'd go 8-12" NENC and SEVA. 3-6 Border Counties NWNC.

They both done bad with QPF over Missouri this Morning. Way lower than what has transpired. Joplin had 4 inches of Snow when the Euro had them at less than an Inch.

It makes you wonder if the Euro is not getting the Data from some area's. Why does it continue under forecasting Precip amounts.?.

GFS showing around 6" Total here. ARW WRF showing around 6". GDPS about 6". So, it's the usual Debbie downer nam 3k and HRRR that's the low enders.

Yeah, you can see the hrrr and nam 3k within it. Take those out of the Equation and the Great Valley would be beefier.

John getting blanked by that crap model. Yeah, right, lol.

I've been wondering if the possibility of that vast area of heavy amounts might extend further east. GFS showing that possiblity.

Hopefully it continues it's winning streak for the Area.

We were fortunate here in Feb. 2015.

Webb says he thinks it's coming further North.

Yeah, I started to elaborate on that but didn't feel up to it. It and the HRRR have always underforecasted Snowfall here. Webb seems to the the Southern system is coming further North. Don't know what effect that may have here if it were to . I think if it did further west it may actually throw more moisture into the incoming System, a phase of sorts intead of a transfer.

Wouldn't it be nice just for once for an area like what Missouri is poised to get hit over our Area.

Yeah. It shows most of the Snow from the incoming System mainly across Kentucky. Slams the Pikeville area. Hopefully, that northern projected area trends South.

The 3k looks like sh*t for the great Valley.

It's the worst one for the Tenn Valley. Regular Nam looks good.

I'm right with you brother ! Aggravates the crap out of me when they use the PV crap. Any strong cold airmass coming down they call it the PV coming down.

Yeah, if it's showing same solution it's same. I think it is the Graf but not sure. WCYB uses it now I think. WJHL uses a different one. I can't recall what theirs is. From what I understand it's basically a GFS spinoff. Theie Model has Snow starting around 5 A.M. Wednesday. It has it shooting up through Kentucky before sliding SE. Also has it changing to Rain from Knoxville eastward and NE to the Scott/ Lee County line for a short time before changing back. I disagree with that as the Model is probably using the 32 gl rs demarcation. It still spits 3-5" for Lee , Hancock and Grainger Counties and points west.

Precip field expanding.

The problem is, the Model tends to go straight to mixing or Rain when projecting a Temp above 32 at Ground level. We all know, even if the Temp goes above 32 that if it's below that 200 ft up it's still going to be Snow particularly if the air is not 100% saturated or the gl temp is greater than 35. Even with that threshold if the flakes are big enough it would still be considered wet snow. Radar is faulty itr also as it can be pouring snow but if the Temp is estimated to be 32 or greater it'll show Rain or mix, depending on which radar used.

If that were to happen and somehow HLB reasserted or manifested, man, could be a cold/snowy early March.

If I were them i'd go with winter weather advisory for now but, also add a winter storm watch. In the discussion I would explain the reasoning. My gut tells me they will upgrade to a winter storm watch in the morning for the northern plateau and SWVA.