Daniel Boone

Close to record heat the 4th if that were to materialize. You can see huge motherlode of cold in Canada. That'll drive down on the heels of a major cutter. Then a boundary should ultimately setup somewhere along the Apps overall until the MJO goes toward late Ph 7. or the NAO goes negative. Either will drop that Boundary furthe SE. IF both coincide then the upper SE should see Snow Opportunities. If MJO ph.8 coincides with Blocking, fun and games for the deep South likely, imo.

Yeah, yesterday backed off and today gained momentum. Models for you.

Yep. It was a frustrating Month. Overall cold but precip almost all fell in the warmups. High of Zero on Christmas for coldest on Record. Not a flake of Snow !

Good work and analysis man ! I'm right with you on your thoughts regarding the Cold Shots as well buddy.

Yep..I.m at 1.6" . Some Locations in Western Lee County in the Valley are at 4 inches.

I always hated to see a Trough dig deep into the SW. Without blocking that generally pumps the SER. With blocking you can get overunning or Waves eject Eastward that pay dividend's. However, with a -EPO you can sometimes get cold highs drop down east of that SW trough and get cold but, usually dry. The above Depictions Carver posted are showing good progression. Somewhat of a SER can be good for our Area as Carvers noted. Waves ride along that Boundary. Just my Antique 2 Cents worth.

Models still have it progressing to Ph. 7 by the 1st and crawling through 7.

Makes sense imo. The solid wall to wall Winter's did basically what you described. High latitude blocking helped mitigate what trips the MJO made through the warm Phases. In some cases, it would go either low amp through or COD and come back into cold Phases( SST'S were supportive of that then). My guess is as your's, in that the MJO will make it back to warm Phases at some point as the SST'S are still supportive for that to occur at decent Amp. As you noted, the -QBO should help. Also, NATL SST'S have became more favorable in supporting a -NAO.

That's the Average December Snowfall 40 Year's ago.

Yep, and call it white Friday

Couple duds in there. '72-73 and 08-09. 2005-06 slightly above Temperatures with slightly below average Snowfall. Very Mild January.. 85-86 was great. below average Temps, above average Snowfall. 64-65 was average with above Snowfall. 96-97 avg Temps and Slightly below Snowfall. 08-09 slightly above Temperatures, below average Snowfall. 80-81 below Average Temps, above Snowfall. 09-10 great. Below average Temps above average Snowfall. John, you probably have more detailed information in these.

Yeah, was just looking at those. If right, may be a fun Month.

But, if you throw upstream blocking in there you would get the Central US Cold undercut into the East. Probably equivalent to low Ph 7 without it imo Larry. Maybe not into the SE east of the Apps and South of NC.

Interesting development in the North Atlantic. SST'S becoming favorable for a -NAO this Winter. https://x.com/Aigle_e/status/1989420648234668098?s=20

Interesting SST development in the North Atlantic : https://x.com/Aigle_e/status/1989420648234668098?s=20 Another factor increasing - NAO Odds this Winter.

Foliage all gone here. Was a crappy one here as well.. wasn't alot of Color.

Yeah, he's mainly referencing NC Southward. I think we get in on some of the early December Action west of NC and Spine of Apps.

Looks great for cold and snow Lover's. If this were to be realized it would be the coldest Winter probably since 2013-14 .

Agree completely Carvers. Hopefully the Ec Weeklies are just going on lagging the MJO in warm Phases. As you alluded to, sometimes an SSW can foul up a good pattern for us so, may be that too. Models tend to go wonky before one too so, may be that too.

MJO projected to crawl through P7 first week of December. Looks like Model's picking up in that.

You beat me to it Jax. Lol. Yeah, looks minor but does appear to be one from what I've gathered. Either way, should keep the PV in a weak State for awhile. As you said, we'll know by next week for sure.

Think it was 17-18. Terrible waist of cold.

Yeah, hopefully they are overemphasizing it. Could also be the SSW starting to affect the Models. If so, some back and forth and wonky solutions to come as we know.

Yep. MJO taking control of the Bus. Blocking may mitigate the Heat in the East by squashing the SER. Hopefully that western trough doesn't dig too deep and help the SER hook up with the -NAO. Models are not showing that but after seeing that happen the last several Years it makes it a possibility.

Probably factoring the MJO. Crawling through 6 and into 7 by early December. Transition in 7 makes sense if the MJO is ruling the Roost. Continued blocking has become a bit of a Question for December now as some Data has backed off some.