Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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That's a Scenario that looked plausable to me after seeing the UK last night but didn't want to Debbie down anymore. A strong ejecting system with a northern vort pull and a weakness between hp Area's can allow for a conduit to open as we know. Webb began fearung that yesterday Afternoon. I think Bamwx was just going by Climo and maybe desire in his earlier North trend depiction. Hopefully that Northern Plains HP strengthens and that Northern vort doesn't pull the Baja LP. That's really our hope.
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It supposedly uses all the Ensembles. That's from the NWS. Looks to me as if it's still Yesterday's being used.
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UKie following Canadian. Phases that da*ned western energy and pops some SE ridging as Webb fears might happen.
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Yeah, that's what Webb was alluding to ; it dropping further West. He's basically saying we don't want that to continue.
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Yep. The other was the 18Z. It looked like the 18Z Euro hadn't been used in it. Must have been 12Z in it. Ensembles are used in the NBM as well.
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Eps Ensemble drops Totals here to just 3-4" of slop. Shoots that warm nose all the way to the Ky, Va, WV Border.
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Webb gave his view on why the Model's trended North. The backing west of the trough into Western Canada. I noticed that awhile ago and was thinking that may be having an effect. It's on X if anyone cares to look. We need a stronger press from HP to our NW or due North to Counter. If not, we may find ourselves firmly in the great Valley warm slot while hefty Snows fall west, North and East of us. Mid and West Tennessee may come out well with this after all , while the great Valley doesn't. Areas east of the Apps may get enough Cad for them to do well. I've saw that Scenario play out many times. Not being a Debbie downer, just presenting a pretty real possibility.
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At least we should get plenty of that. We need the moisture as water levels are running low.
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Another slap in the face for the Forum. It'll go North. Coming out strong so going to Cut. Big time Oh.Valley Crush like December '04. May settle a bit further South and hammer Kentucky from London and points North and West. Another similar Analogy would be the January '94 Storm.
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He already is. Gloating on X saying look for it to tick further North.
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I see Reynolds on WJHL is apparently showing the 12Z GFS forecasted Totals.
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15 to 20 inches of Snow here in Lee County from that one.
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As was discussed yesterday, Timing of LP ejection and Strength is crucial in determining evential Track and P Types. Bammwx could turn out to be right or maybe a compromise between that solution and the consensus.
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That was the one that buried Kentucky. 10" far SEKY to 2 Feet North. Freezing rain to snow at my house near Pennington gap. 7" Snow.
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Have they tinkered with it recently ? It was, up untill a couple weeks or so ago, always the coldest Model. Now, it seems it's totally opposite.
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I couldn't find the Map. Used to find old one's dating way back. Did find it was a Miller A that ran up the Coast. Apparently a slow mover . Probable blocking upstream. It was Dec. 3-6 th.
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I wonder what the Setup was for the Record 3 Day Snowstorm back in early December 1886 that buried Knoxville under 2 Feet of Snow ?
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Exactly. Maybe it depends on who's working at the Time, lol.
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Sure looks it. They've told me they yse the NBM.
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They definitely are similar. Ratios were high with that Storm over Northern Forum Area. If Models are correct this one may have more Moisture.
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Most are over the Tn Valley with some South with it. Maybe come up with a more likely solution between the GEFS , EPS and GEPS.
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That was a cold Storm. Heaviest Southern Valley into North and South Carolina..broad aerial coverage. 7 inches at my house near Pennington gap then. Over a Foot southern Forum.
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Better hope not a Presidents Day 2003 Deal unless you like Flooding. We were all on the warm side of that one.
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That was the 0Z Euro he was agreeing to.
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Tbh, I wouldn't be surprised if it took the Ohio Valley Route based on our Luck. However, if the stronger HP and cold push are relalized like most 12Z Data is showing it'll have to stay further South. Strength and timing of the ejecting Baja LP is a master Key here. Let's watch this closely the next couple Days. If it comes out of the SW strong it's going to want to cut more; the stronger ther more it'll try to cut poleward. If it comes out too soon it'll have a better shot.of cutting before the strong HP press.
