Daniel Boone

How many of these years had sustained legit Blocking ?

Great Post man ! I made mention of the possibility Cozgrove could be right about the back being cold but wrong about the front and the possibility exists of a solid cold Winter after you posted what his thoughts were recently. He and I and his Buddy Dave Dierks used chat quite a bit and he is without a doubt an expert in Lr Forecasting Dave's more medium range. Imo, this one has the Chance of being a 95-96 type weak Nina or even a 10-11 . The latter was strong moderate but had strong Blocking. Blocking was the big deal for both. '95-96 was cold all three Months but did have short lived mild periods. '10-11 Cold Dec and January, mild February.

Many times in the past the Model's underestimated blocking and had to adjust. If that's the case here, any warmth and Ridging in the East may be short lived or mitigated. Your Pre Thanksgiving thoughts may very well be Correct.

I think it's right with the Thanksgiving or thereabouts Threat of Snow and Cold. The weak PV is going to help enforce blocking. The MJO in Warm ph is probably starting to exert some influence as it will probably help cause the Trough to spill west and fight against the Block prior to the MJO advancement into colder phases. May even try to spin up a SER that may try to connect to said Block. It is still possible to get a shot or two of cooler air before the End of Month Real Deal as that block still may force heights South in the East somewhat.

Saw where 1981-82 and 2000-01 are being batted around alot due to similar SST Profiles and PV Strength. 81-82 was a great Winter here. Several Arctic blasts and above avg Snow. 2000-01 was cold but rather dry with below average Snowfall. 1968-69 Analog is also on the Table. Great cold and snowy Winter.

Snowfall reports from Lee County: Rose Hill 4 inches . Ewing 3". Jonesville 1.6". Pennington gap 1". No Reports from Keokee in Northern Lee. Less than a half inch in Dryden in Northeastern Lee.

The last one looks MJO 6 Canonical Nina basically.

That thing was producing some very heavy snow as it crossed Lee County around Rose Hill. I eatched it to my West and was thinking how I wished it had crossed here. We had a period of gusty Winds that came from that direction as it was wsw of here.

Yeah. Oddly, looks like a front moving South through Kentucky and West Virginia as well; a deformation band of sorts. That area has had solid light snow with it with an area of moderate to heavy from extreme east ky through Charleston WV. They got dumped on in that tather narrow solid area.

We picked up 1.25" in 20 minutes awhile ago. Before that the heavier showers missed here with just a few dustings. Norton and Wise picked up 1-2 inches last night. Not heard from anyone there this Afternoon.

Typical MRX. The area's they have in the 1-3" Range should of had an Advisory as it meets Snow Advisory Criteria. Sad.

Yeah, multiple Arctic Front's.

If formidable blocking is realized, it should be above average Snowfall. Had 2010-11 or 95-96 not had that ACE Snowfall would have undoubtedly been much less.

All gone here except a few left on Oaks.

There's going to be several area's get more than Forecasted.

Now that would git'r done !

Hopefully the Canadian will be right. 3k looks rather paltry.

Shade's of some 1960's Winter's.

Be nice if that came along and hooked up with an Arctic Front

Wright Weather before it.

This run backed off on Amounts. We'll see if that's a trend by 0z. I'd expect it to uptick as Lakes are very warm so plenty Upslope to be fed.

If we can get the trip into cold Phases along with the weak PV or SSWE late Nov early December will flip back cold. As we know, that TC heading there is not good if you want a Trough in the East. The Mid Nov Period has been progged mild overall awhile now. Of course, Wavelengths matter too. Also, MJO Ph has a bit different effect irt location in November, particularly early. Most assuredly a warm spell is coming but strength and duration is undetermined.

It appears to be focusing strongly on that huge warm pool south of the Aleutians with high pressure centered there. Time will tell if those SST'S are as forecasted and that Ridge sets up predominantly there.

Amazing stuff showing up Larry.

That would put even Valley Locations in the upper 20's to lower 30's by 4 P.M. !