Daniel Boone

Pretty thick above freezing air aloft. It's been rain and sleet here. Finally got a few Flakes mixed in now. All Snow just 10 statute Miles North of my Location ( Jonesville Va). Wise has heavy snow currently.

Exactly! We've received 0.18 in rhe gauge so far mainly rain and sleet. There's some wet Flakes mixed in now. Temp. 33.2

Area's east of the Appalachian Spine have very low DP'S. Definitely going to help them get all Snow all the way down to possibly Winston Salem NC. Too bad we were stuck with high DP's . Would of made a difference irt cooling. That or just have been 2-3 degrees colder at all levels than it is. So close but yet so far.

Everything appears to be a bit North of what guidance had been indicating. SEKY across Wise County should do decent Snow wise.

Light rain and sleet here now. I was a bit concerned as the Temp was running a bit high here and Dews were above Freezing. Would have been better to of had a drier airmass at lower level during onset. Current Temp is 35.7 with 33 Dp. Wise is currently 30 last report.

Same here John. I lived in downtown Pennington gap then at an Elevation of just 1360 and recorded 52 inches for the Season. Much of the Area received more due to Elevation. Wise set State Seasonal Record with 123.4 inches.

95-96 would be great as the warmups were short lived. Below average Temps Dec, Jan and February. Blocking was very prominent then.

Yeah, if it goes to high amp 6 most definitely. If you want a cold late December and much of January better hope that doesn't happen as high 6 Pattern will be hard to dislodge if blocking is gone, the PNA negative and the AO Positive particularly if it traverses into the colder phases at low Amp afterward.

I see several Mets are apparently ignoring the MJO or not looking at it at all as they're continuing harping that the Pattern will flip to Trough in the West soon. I like Ryan Hall but, he's one for example. He doesn't even give a Reasoning other than bound to. Other's are basing on a Couple of Model Runs or an Alaskan Vortex. I agree the Vortex if gets situated in Alaska will alter the Pattern but not necessarily flip it trough west/ridge east. It could possibly flatten the Flow to weaker eastern Trough. Ryan and the Other's could be suggesting a short lived Flip of which is possible even with the MJO Stage and Greenland Blocking. But why not specify that ? I wonder if their bias is coming through or they're wanting their Winter Outlook to be spot on or just doing the what goes up , must come down. Anyhow, enough rantig on a Subject fitting for later lol. They may turn out right. Back to the main here and now Interest unfolding.

Yeah, it appears to be developing sooner than Forecasted. Could be Virga for some time due to a dry Layer. However, Cloudcover did fill in quicker than expected so precip may very well as well. KMRX should hoist Advisories shortly .

If that were to occur verbatim that would be a heavy wet dumping.

Could be a rather long duration Event, combining the 2. Not saying anything like what I'm bringing up is possible this time but, for whatever reason made me think of one of Knoxvilles big, long duration Snowstorm Dec. 3-6 I believe way back in the late 1800's I read about. I think 1873. Would have to look it up. It was nearly 2 Feet ! I've often wondered if it was a product of overrunning or System or multiple Systems.

It throws out all possibilities from run to run. Lol

I know man. Flurrying here too. I couldn't believe they did that.

Kmrx just reported that as freezing Fog on Twitter. They were showing a traffic Camera and it showed the snow but they thought it was Fog.

I agree with you completely . If we go back to many great Winter's, many of them featured that occurrence. '95-96 comes to mind as that happened on more than one Occasion. Not saying we're in for a "great" Winter , although, the possibility does exist. I think if that Mild shot is short and ends abruptly the Odds are pretty good imo.

The European Models bring the Goods Friday and Saturday to NETN, SWVA and SEKY . General 2-6".

Could be the Strat thing playing havoc on Model's or the forecasted strong Pac Jet or both. The MJO should be in a cold phase then. Blocking should be in place so ., just don't know. Extreme heat( for even there this late) is lurking in the deep SE and over the Gulf and portions of Mexico so, wouldn't take alot to soar Temps if flow shoots from that way. In fact , some of the milder air aloft now is a result of that being sifted north toward the Jet. That huge area of extreme warmth originally spread from Mexico and Texas a couple Weeks ago along with that now Cuban HP that was forecasted last week to be a huge SER with near record warmth here. I'm in hopes that HP and area of heat gets shunted eastward toward the Sargasso Sea as it may cause us issues throughout the Winter if not. I've seen it before. The Aleutians Trough is a bit too west as well as Holston noted. Place that a bit east and shift the pattern that much East and we'd be situated about where Western KY is within the Trough now. Those are a couple things that would help us if they shift. A bit of an apendage ; the Cuban HP can occasionally be of benefit, particularly with Overrunning Events so, it's not always bad. It just doesn't happen often. We'd still be much better overall if it were shunted out as mentioned above.

You should be fine there.

You could be getting in on some of the milder air aloft. I noticed in my area temps above 2000 ft are in the upper 30's while in the lower Valley it's lower 30's. Too bad the Jet is to our NW. We're getting that milder air pulled up from the South aloft. Very warm in the deep South East.

Yeah, there's some talk of it being a complete SSWE. PV is weak so if there is one it may very split the PV this time.

Yeah, if blocking is decent during that Time we should fair well. If the Pac Jet doesn't blast the PNW like some guidance is showing some of that really cold air should finally get to us. The MJO may help alter that Jets direction more than what the GFS in particular is showing and thereby a colder outcome. As it stands, Could be quite cold and snowy or cool and damp . We shall see.

I get why you're thinking maybe a relaxation after the 15th. However, I think the MJO in cold Phase along with possible upstream blocking should curtail any significant warmup mid late month. If anything, may get a deeper dive of the PJ and Cold. The PAC Jet may try to mitigate the Effects of the above mentioned as it may dampen the -EPO but, the MJO and -NAO should still keep troughing in the East. Just my Antique 2 Cents worth. Of course, if the -NAO is not still there or robust then a milder outcome.

Agree. Weak PV from Strat probably part of it. Ryan Maue thinks a full Split is still coming. Also, if the blocking upstream Models are suggesting coming up is right then there will probably be a deeper dive of the Cold into the SE than being shown.

Yeah. Had more warmer than avg nights. Less Frost than usual as well as was October. On that note, what a Frost this Morning !!! Looked alike a light Snowfall.