Daniel Boone

I saw before Dark on Resortcams La follette was already getting some decent sized Flakes. I noticed your area showed no Snow on MRX Graphic. I hadn't checked but did the NBM show no Snow for that Area ?

Lt dusting here . Very small Flakes so far.

No way, not there, lol

The Model Ingest System uses Data from "Official Weather Station's" (Airports, NWS Coop Station's etc) and NWS Certified Observers. The NWS also uses Cocorahs Data. I don't know if it's implemented directly into the System or not. Should be. Recording and Incorporating all this Data is how the Model's should get better over Time. The Model's also incorporate Weather Baloon, Atmospheric Sensor Data etc.. There is downsloping that occurs, particularly from off the Mountains along the KY Border. Model's do overemphasize that sometimes. It doesn't affect exteme Northern Lee much as it sits on a Plateau that runs on across the Norton and Wise area in Wise County. The main thing that is affecting the Model's irt Lee County is the Official Pennington gap Station. It is the only Official NWS Station in the County. It is at the Sewer Plant along the Powell River, Operated by Town Employees. I have checked out the Site personally and found notable flaws that affect accuracy greatly. It is not manned 24/7. Just Day Shift. I'll hopefully get over there before long and get a Couple of Pics and post.

Could be the Case. I contacted NOAA via Email. Not heard back. Spoke with NWS and they couldn't give an explanation to why the Snow Data was doing that. They had my Reports and Cocorahs Reports that all showed well above what the NOHRSC Data showed. They couldn't figure where or how they came up with that. I'd say it has to be them just using the Pennington gap Site Data. That's the only thing I can see how they came up with that. Sad. That Site needs moved to a better Location or just shut down.

I see it's showing the my Lee County in the light area again thanks to the bad Data going into the Model's.

It dumped it once you get up around Marion on to Blacksburg VA too. Blacksburg NWS shared some Pics on X.

Yeah, I agree it's closer overall John. I noticed it has your location pretty close. Still way off here. I've contacted NOAA. Hope to get a response Tomorrow. From what it looks like is what I've mentioned in here as far as this Area is concerned, and that's the flawed Pennington gap Station at the Sewer Plant. It's rightfully located to how it is; full of sh*t.

They have it wrong for here. That is affecting Model Outputs as John noted. I'll contact someone regarding that. I don't know if that's estimated or based off Observations or both. Im in central Lee County and have recorded 7.8"

Cleared mine and am feeling it too. Glad it wasn't the heavy stuff.

Most times they go with what Model Data is printing out like many do anymore. It caused them to miss by a large margin in much of the Area. Sometimes you gotta use logic and incorporate Human Input. Not downing them or the Other's as it's just the way things have become nowadays, sadly. Until Model's get (if it's really completely possible) more micro precise , if you will, without the Forecasters skilled Input it will remain the same.

Few flakes falling here now.

Here's end of 0Z Run 12Z Thursday.

Rgem still showing possibility for SWVA.

Yes, I know that . I'm saying the possibility at onset or ending as Snow in basically the SWVA Part of the Great Valley as the Euro and RGEM indicated earlier. Black Mountain and High Knob Massif Area.

Oh, I agree the Track is too far North for Tn. I was suggesting the possibility up in my area, blunderstorms and maybe TRI, onset and maybe a little back lash.

That's what I've harped on for Year's. It goes into the MIS. Bad Spotter reporting and Official Co-op Station flawed Data , location or reporting.

Saw that earlier. Looks pretty close up here and in eastern sections. Hancock and Claiborne had Official Cocorahs Reports of 7-9 inches. So for whatever Reason they did put less Amounts in Western Area's.

Yeah, I know about those. I've saw some pretty good thumpings ahead of those when deep cold is ahead of them . Model's many times have underestimated the mixing from low level CA upsloping up the Great Valley. Not talking of the whole Forum area here.

Yeah, noticed that in later modeling. I have saw that advertised and still wind up with accumulaing Snow before changeover as the nose was slower getting 850 Temps above 0C in the NE Valley than Model's Forecasted.

Bears watching. I wouldn't buy into the mainly Rain Depiction most our spitting out. Thermals mighty close. Euro and RGEM may score again here.

Euro close to that. Wouldn't surprise me at all.

Apparently KMRX and KJKL have differing opinions irt precip along the KY/VA Border Counties from that. Could be One's using different Model than the the Other. JKL has mix to Snow for Harlan while MRX has predominantly Rain and quite a bit warmer on this side of the Border.

You wound up with more than here and were supposed to get less. I think La follette got quite a bit less than you from what Cam looks like there. Imagine if that System had been just 30 statute Miles further NW . You'd got over a Foot and probably 10-11 here.

Can you get us some Pics