Daniel Boone
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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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We had a couple hours of early morning rain..1.24" Total. Jonesville proper, 2.18". Thar same pecip field moved over your area and kept expanding and backfilling. I'm expecting early cold and snow. May be another November Snowfall. Hopefully, an old fashioned big one.
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I saw that Video. 2010-11 was a great Winter. Basically all Forecasters were predicting a mild one due to the formidable La nina. Upstream blocking crapped their Outlook's. I saw where 62-63 is being thrown around some as well. That one was just bitter. Not any big Snows but many Snowfalls. Blocking once again ruled the Roost.
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Makes sense given ENSO heaviest weighted . Throw in a good amount of upstream blocking and you would get a good look. Hopefully the QBO State along with NATL SST'S will help accomplish that. I saw a Forecaster saying 2010-11 was a favored analogue. Ryan Hall I believe. That type Pattern would be what would result with the Cansips Outlook with added blocking.
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If those SST'S remain pretty much as are around Newfoundland and those in the GOA warm a bit we could be looking at both. 50-50 Lows should be more prevalent. +TNH Pattern possible with the NPAC SST Profile. Let's not forget the QBO as well.
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Yeah. I brought that up in the Tenn Valley Sub. If those SST'S around Newfoundland remain similar to now along with the QBO State, I think the likelihood of a -NAO is greater than many think.
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That Winter was weak nina to neutral enso. I'm thinking a -PDO existed. My antique memory is not so good anymore. Should just look it up to be sure.
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46 again here this Morning. Around 40 in Mountain Valley Locations.
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I'm liking the QBO State and the SST'S off Newfoundland. Hopefully they remain similar this Winter. That is if you want a greater likelihood of a -NAO.
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Morning low of 46 at my home. Some lower 40's in mountain valley s.
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Currently 53 here at Midnight on a hilltop. Probably 47-48 here in Morning with mid 40's Valley's. Cool but not coldest for this time of year. Record for August 26 in Pennington gap was 38 back in 1986.
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Yeah, they have got to the point they change the Local Averages every other Year or so anymore. The long term Averages(Climate Norms) used to be 30 Year Periods. I think technically that still exists. On back to the extended Outlook cool down. Forecast's are adjusting to Model Guidance and lowering Temps. If Data continues with the big cool down you'll see the Forecast's lower temps the closer we get .
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Their extended outlook has nothing dramatic for this time of Year. Cooler but nothing extreme. However, Model Data is showing cooler but nothing of Tecord proportions. NWS is adjusting to Climatology , so their extended Outlook will be warmer than Guidance.
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We'll name it Whiteland if we aquire it, lol.
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Yeah, good point Jeff, Atlantic or Gulf TC activity can either help or hurt by reinforcement of a heat Ridge. Timing of propagation.
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Yeah, it was weak Nina. Check out the N.Atlantic SST'S that Winter. Evident Nfd cold pool. Thanks for the Data dig John !
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As you can see, I went ahead and found it. Plymouth only goes back to 2000. Anyway, here's the " evidence". Looks Nina to me. Although, close enough tri.month average one could classify as neutral I suppose with marginal spread.
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Yeah, I always considered it a weak Nina . From what I recollect, SST'S showed that. Somebody go dig up archived plots from then. I just don't feel up to it. I used to have those at disposal many years ago. I'm sure Plymouth State still has those. A side note; I think that Winter would of had more Nina Characteristics albeit weak, had it not been for repeated textbook strong blocking.
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I have one of those. It's a good Station overall. Accurate T, RH, Rain, Solar. 14 second updates not bad for budget Station. Biggest con is Windspeed runs low the higher the Winds, at least with mine. Customer support is good. I also have a Logia 7-1 . It has been very accurate overall. It was right with my Davis irt accuracy. T Sensor failing after 3 year's.
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Yeah, that PDO is bad as of now. Last year at this juncture it was low but not this low and it managed to rise rapidly in November. That helped irt last Winter without a doubt.
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Good ole JB, LOL
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Yeah. The SST/Atmosphere correlation should become more Set as we get into Fall and Winter. If we get the tripole SST config in the NATL , along with the favourable QBO we should be in business as far as upstream blocking. We need to do a run on west based nina/ east based nina combo composites ,if it can be done. If we can find the Year's with that Configuration , should be able to. Maybe Chuck over in the MA can. He's good at that stuff.
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That makes sense given the QBO as well. As of now, there's an obvious disconnect with the SST'S and Atmosphere. So, the NATL SST'S may not factor in too much if that were to continue into Winter. On to the reason of such a disconnect, that probably has something to do with Solar/ tropospheric imo. Mountain Torque could be at play some but, not to the disconnect Magnitude there is I don't think. Jeff may have a better or a more detailed explanation on the Subject.
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Yeah, guidance as well as local NWS Forecasts have constantly been too high . Not just to the tune of a couple degrees but, 5-7.
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Really been short changed irt Rainfall here at my home east of Jonesville. Under 4 inches for the Month so far. Average is about 5.25". Just continues to develop all around us . It's as if we have a mini dome around here.
