Daniel Boone

Winter as a whole MJO Cold Phases: 8 1 2 .

Yeah. Would be nice to have a full blown MJO Ph8 Pattern.

Yeah, there's apparently some mixed up data as there's different locations from different Modeling. I think the Kelvin and Rossbys are alot of our problems as Jax pointed out. Makes sense.

Thanks brother !

Models have been showing that Block shifting Eastward to being centered over Alaska. I made a post recently that we needed that to happen and get rid of any GOA Low. If that doesn't happen, yeah Trough should drop in the West. There have been rare times as I'm sure you know, where other Variables altered the typical outcome of Aleutian Ridge equates to western Trough however. Carvers can better describe what looks be be transpiring and maybe touch on those Variable's. I'm just too tired and sick to present everything myself. Carvers is much better than I am and a Master at that.

Good,valid point. Post this in the Main Forum and you'll have many going Nuts over there ; particularly the Warmanista and GW brainwashed One's. They'd probably justify the Model's doing that. Fact is, GW is real to a degree but, the Cause and Forecasted Rate is off. Not to say your Post is about GW, just giving an Opinion on why you're right on your Suspicion.

Yeah, had the same Pattern came later that we've been in it's possible if not probable we'd gotten Snow from the cold rain and mix one's we got. I remember doing same as you. When the cold dropped down from North Dakota and Minnesota. Fun times watching Margie Isom . Use to Snow would hit Memphis then Chatt and spread up the Valley. The whole Valley would get in on many of the Snow storm's. Miller A's were more prevalent.

'76-77 and 77-78 were just unreal for this Area. Theyveere great Northern like Winters. River's, Creeks and Ponds were frozen completely over and thick. You could walk on them ! Constant Cold. I'm thinking the MJO hung out in cold Phases. Blocking was strong in 76-77 but oddly the NAO was neutral to slightly positive. Strong -AO Both. Strong +PNA as well. Not surprising, '77-78 was my Snowiest Winter with 72" recorded just west of Pennington gap.

Coz has always been a good long Ranger. Could be right about last half. If so, even with the mild period, it would turn out overall a cold Winter, especially going by this Era's Standards. Glad you had a decent Score over there with this one buddy ! You were under the same bands that moved over here.

A Modification of the current one would work actually. Pop that HP on east into Alaska and get rid of any semblance of a GOA Low and strengthen Blocking upstream. That way the Clipper's and Miller B's would travel further South. The worry of a complete reshuffle is we never get back to a base Eastern Trough. What's really needed is a tall Western Ridge connecting with, in conjunction with or connecting with the Alaskan HP. A -AO as well. Another, although not neccesary but helps, is formidable blocking in the NAO Domain, preferably with a 50-50 or thereabouts Low. That would work for us. An active STJ in the Mix would raise the odds for heavy Snowfalls. It has been weak or lacking in those Area's during this cold Stretch.

Does anyone know why the board is not allowing me to post Pictures. It says only allows 121 kb size. I can't get them that small without cutting most of pic away and very small.

I think the strength and staying power(duration) you mentioned Yesterday may be a strong Indicator irt whether we have a great Winter or not as you mentioned Yesterday. Historical backing. Even '95-96 had a mild stretch mid December before going cold by Christmas. 89-90 had extreme cold the entire Month rhat flipped the last Day to a long mild period and stayed mild overall. The great '70's Winter's as example here, featured a couple mild periods of between 1-3 Days , and those weren't very mild at that ! I remember January of '78 the only one in Pennington that Month and it was one Day. 38 for the High !

1.5" here this Morning. Some melting underneath so may have been a bit more. It stopped for several hours last night before a period more this morning. KMRX is requesting Reports. Please send them in.

Just started snowing steady here. 30.2 degrees.

Wow !

As of now things are looking better irt amounts provided no dry intrusion. Area's that were ti be Virga now are seeing Snow reach the ground. Maybe it's the heavier rates aloft Models may of missed that saturated sooner or could be some lift pulling more moisture up from a fairly moist lower Level and helping with saturation.

Welcome to the Board !

Decenber and January 2011 and January 2014 had several. I totally see your point though Holston. They are rare anymore.

If it does like last time, it may even touch five and then crawl through 6. That would probably be a Months worth of crap for us if Blocking doesn't mitigate it.

Yeah, COD heading toward six looks like on the Chart and that was the 8th so, extrapolating that course would be coming into six now. Sat Imagery as Carvers alluded looks rather undeterministic irt where really.

The MJO is basically a spread out cluster or clusters if you will. It not being very defined in a single area is making it's effects on the Pattern harder to pinpoint. Forcing is at a wider Area so to speak. If that consolidates into 8 later in the Month , or whatever phase, that typical Phase outcome should become most evident providing Other Driver's don't overpower it, imo.

Same here. 34.8 Degree's as of 9:35 PM

Yeah. I can remember back in my Day's of the Criteria being that plus Temps below 20 F.

39 here now with lt rain. It was snowing on Stone Mountain at 2500ft and up. As well as Wallen Ridge just south of Pennington gap at around 2800ft awhile ago when the band of Precip was heaviest.

It's beginning to look like it.