Daniel Boone

I agree brother. I was just pointing out how the main Driver and Analog Computer generated Outlook basically, that Don Sutherland came up with with his meticulously done Calculations. Check it out in the main Forum. Interesting, although like you, I'm hoping the Asian snow/ice above average buildup and weak PV you noted does help. I don't know if he factored those Parameters in or not. He went into some detail on what was used but, seemed mosly analogus to similar late Summer Years and ENSO Status. Those boiling WPAC SST'S will cause a firehouse PAC Jet so, depending on how strong Blocking in the AO Domain is, it could present a problem for us. Our best hope for is that those Waters in the NEPAC warm back up ala 2013-14. That would help augment ridging into Alaska and western Canada. I had high hopes earlier for a likelihood of a dominant -NAO due to the cold SST'S around Newfoundland but, those have since warmed dramatically. Hopefully something will cool them once again.

As of now, barring any drastic changes, the main Climate Driver Data extrapolated for the Winter suggests a strong SER presence. Of course, blocking is tough to factor in. If that were to manifest then things could be different...unless there's the SER -NAO Linkage. If you're a cold/snow lover like me it doesn't look good. As far as economically, it would be great as utility prices as well as other basic needs continue to rise. Many are having trouble making ends meet.

That would be a nice dumping in January.

They're going standard canonical La nina Pattern.

I think the Newfoundland warm or cold pool effects whether or not that linkage occurs as it affects the likelihood, longevity and strength of a 50-50 Low. Maybe, Chuck, Larry or Don will take the time to research that and see what the numbers show irt to that.

The Cold pool lends to a 50-50 Low of which stops any linkage.

Yeah, that has occurred more often in later Year's.

Agree. That favors a +NAO as most here know. If something shakes up that area and it cools drastically then things could be different.

They're loaded here too. Old folklore used to say that foretold a cold Winter. No proof of that whatsoever, however.

Yep. I've been telling folks here how behind we are getting on the first frost.

Great work Man !

Yeah true. Cad will probably drain on down if that depiction on Euro is correct, unless there's pressure from the west pushing that heat Eastward. Could be in serious drought and fire trouble if that Ridge lingers.

We'll see. 80's in central VA , 40's in SE Pennsylvania . Sharp Contrast. Storminess along that Boundary.?. Hopefully it's wrong. All we need is Summer heat to return.

Exactly John. I don't know what the weighted percentage is but do know it's by far highest with the Seasonal Models. Basically, so much so the Forecast will show basically Canonical La nina .

We need to find those Archives. I'm pretty sure they did. I think they showed a Canonical Nina 500 look as well as Temp. Profile.

Saw that . Euro typically goes low with forecast snowfall for our area so, if it's onto a projected Pattern and right,may be a decent Winter .

Yeah true. Forgot about that oddity.

Euro clearly has a warm Seasonal bias. It has one even medium range albeit to a lesser degree.

Looks WPAC SST and Nina augmented. If the NEPAC continues cooling into Winter that outcome is very viable , imo.

Yeah, I agree. Think they're over playing the Nina. PDO is factored too . Highly doubt NEPAC SST'S are factored at all. Medium range continues to show cooling in that area so, who knows, maybe that's being further extrapolated by Seasonals. Due to that possibility, they could be extrapolating the WPO and EPO as well now. That would all favor pretty solid mildness as the WPAC is still very warm and medium range continues that pretty stable. There are also signs of the MJO hanging around P 6-7 mainly according to LR Guidance. So, SST extrapolation being factored irt that. I don't think the NATL SST'S are factored any at all at this Juncture by LR's. Maybe they do now. If so, I'd wager not highly factored.

Yeah. It appears to be keying on the Nina with that Aleutian Ridge. ENSO is the highest percentage Driver the LR's incorporate.

Yep. Hopefully not extreme warmth . Probably be more tropical mischief. Hopefully we get rain from that , if not could result in that extreme warmth. Typical first Freeze in Valley areas around here is the 10-15th. Use to be a bit earlier. If that off and on advertised mid month cold shot is not realized it's going to be late. Looking like a not so good foliage Season at my Local as the Leaves are dying and falling with no color orber than dark brown as if blight has hit them.

Yeah, not alot of correlation really.

Yeah, it's basically if the end is above in aerial coverage is what it boils down to.

Yeah, 2010-11 was an oddity. Every Forecast was for a mild to very mild Winter due to the moderate to strong Nina. Blocking was the big surprise and culprit for the non characteristic Nina Pattern. Same can be said for 95-96, although it was a weak Nina.