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Everything posted by Daniel Boone
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Bam is having a hissy over it on X. Popped his , as he said, 30 second drawn map up and boasted about it. He has the ohoo River area being Snow bullseye. He may be right but I hope he's not.
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2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Buckethead's topic in Southeastern States
I hope it's right over the other Models so far but, hard to go against the freaking Euro although it does have a known warm bias. -
2025-2026 Fall/Winter Mountain Thread
Daniel Boone replied to Buckethead's topic in Southeastern States
Exactly what I call it, lol. Freaking dumps snow on Arkansas but, thanks to the northern Vort gets pulled north east of there and cause slop for all us. -
There is a way around the main LP causing a turnover to rain all the eay up the west side of Apps. An LP forming East or SE of us and intensifying. Not highly likely but a possibility.
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Uggh !
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Yeah, it will change the whole Picture for at least that period. May cause the Trough to want to setup a bit further West over the Plains . May not hurt to start watching the MJO more now.
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Not surprised. It's all went from exhilarating to sickening.
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That's a Scenario that looked plausable to me after seeing the UK last night but didn't want to Debbie down anymore. A strong ejecting system with a northern vort pull and a weakness between hp Area's can allow for a conduit to open as we know. Webb began fearung that yesterday Afternoon. I think Bamwx was just going by Climo and maybe desire in his earlier North trend depiction. Hopefully that Northern Plains HP strengthens and that Northern vort doesn't pull the Baja LP. That's really our hope.
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It supposedly uses all the Ensembles. That's from the NWS. Looks to me as if it's still Yesterday's being used.
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UKie following Canadian. Phases that da*ned western energy and pops some SE ridging as Webb fears might happen.
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Yeah, that's what Webb was alluding to ; it dropping further West. He's basically saying we don't want that to continue.
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Yep. The other was the 18Z. It looked like the 18Z Euro hadn't been used in it. Must have been 12Z in it. Ensembles are used in the NBM as well.
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Eps Ensemble drops Totals here to just 3-4" of slop. Shoots that warm nose all the way to the Ky, Va, WV Border.
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Webb gave his view on why the Model's trended North. The backing west of the trough into Western Canada. I noticed that awhile ago and was thinking that may be having an effect. It's on X if anyone cares to look. We need a stronger press from HP to our NW or due North to Counter. If not, we may find ourselves firmly in the great Valley warm slot while hefty Snows fall west, North and East of us. Mid and West Tennessee may come out well with this after all , while the great Valley doesn't. Areas east of the Apps may get enough Cad for them to do well. I've saw that Scenario play out many times. Not being a Debbie downer, just presenting a pretty real possibility.
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At least we should get plenty of that. We need the moisture as water levels are running low.
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Another slap in the face for the Forum. It'll go North. Coming out strong so going to Cut. Big time Oh.Valley Crush like December '04. May settle a bit further South and hammer Kentucky from London and points North and West. Another similar Analogy would be the January '94 Storm.
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He already is. Gloating on X saying look for it to tick further North.
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I see Reynolds on WJHL is apparently showing the 12Z GFS forecasted Totals.
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15 to 20 inches of Snow here in Lee County from that one.
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As was discussed yesterday, Timing of LP ejection and Strength is crucial in determining evential Track and P Types. Bammwx could turn out to be right or maybe a compromise between that solution and the consensus.
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That was the one that buried Kentucky. 10" far SEKY to 2 Feet North. Freezing rain to snow at my house near Pennington gap. 7" Snow.
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Have they tinkered with it recently ? It was, up untill a couple weeks or so ago, always the coldest Model. Now, it seems it's totally opposite.
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I couldn't find the Map. Used to find old one's dating way back. Did find it was a Miller A that ran up the Coast. Apparently a slow mover . Probable blocking upstream. It was Dec. 3-6 th.
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I wonder what the Setup was for the Record 3 Day Snowstorm back in early December 1886 that buried Knoxville under 2 Feet of Snow ?
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Exactly. Maybe it depends on who's working at the Time, lol.
